Hard to see how Santorum loses Iowa right now

[cthulu2016]

Romney and Paul have the best organizations but Santorum is probably going to get a lot of Gingrich, Bachman and Perry votes from people who didn't even know they were going to vote for Santorum when they went to the caucus. Momentum always seems to be magnified in Iowa and all the pollsters in the field say that Santoromentum is now real.

New PublicPolicyPolling : Iowa: Paul 20, Romney 19, Santorum 18, Gingrich 14, Perry 10, Bachmann 8, Huntsman 4, Roemer 2

My theory is that the religious right doesn't have a candidate. They've tried everybody. And when push comes to shove they will want to be heard. They must want an anti-Romney so badly by now! There will be a bunch of enthusiastic Santorum converts and that will obviously be the righteous corner of the room to be in. (PPP tonight had Santorum the leading 2nd choice of voters.)

So Santorum wins Iowa, though probably with only 25-26 points.

I am glad for any anti-romney to emerge but I can't see Santorum going anywhere. But, as I posted a few days ago, Somebody Has To Win South Carolina. Don't know who but somebody will win SC. If the RW south is waiting for Iowa to vomit up an anti-Romney then maybe Santorum wins SC. At that point it would be a 2 1/2 man race. (Paul isn't a real candidate for the nomination so he just serves as the bunkers around the green of the nomination.)

Anyway, these Public Policy Polling tweets about their poll are cool... (Romney leads among the elderly and "actual Republicans"... I love that.)

http://twitter.com/ppppolls

[Ilsa]

1. This morning I posted about Rick looking so suave

But most of the replies deny that there is anything to worry about. Rick has been running a slick campaign, and he's getting good coaching by someone. Rick is just hoping no one remembers his petulant outbursts and "man-on-dog" comments.

[cthulu2016]

2. I enjoyed your post

I knew that you would get mostly naysaying replies, but I appreciated the perspective and I heard what you were saying.

Santorum seems too young-seeming and ernest for me to see him as presidential but if the task is to be more likable than Mitt Romney... maybe so.

[cthulu2016]

3. misc. polling internals

Paul is down 4 pts in the last week from 24% to 20%. Bachmann the other dropper from 11% to 8%: http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/01/headed-for-a-photo-finish-in-iowa.html
56 minutes ago » ppppolls PublicPolicyPolling Paul is down 4 pts in the last week from 24% to 20%. Bachmann the other dropper from 11% to 8%:

Santorum is 2nd choice of Bachmann, Newt, and Perry's voters. Interesting to see how much ship jumping there is in last 2 days
58 minutes ago » ppppolls PublicPolicyPolling Santorum is 2nd choice of Bachmann, Newt, and Perry's voters. Interesting to see how much ship jumping there is in last 2 days »

14% say Santorum is 2nd choice, compared to 11% for Romney and 8% for Paul. May have more room to grow: http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/01/headed-for-a-photo-finish-in-iowa.html
1 hour ago » ppppolls PublicPolicyPolling 14% say Santorum is 2nd choice, compared to 11% for Romney and 8% for Paul. May have more room to grow
Santorum's up 8 points in the last 5 days. Most popular candidate with 60/30 favorability: http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/01/headed-for-a-photo-finish-in-iowa.html
1 hour ago

[SixthSense]

6. It seems to me

that there's a good 5% of the GOP caucus that simply lines up behind whoever appears to be winning at the moment

another thing to keep in mind, with the vote so widely split, the margin of error alone could be enough to completely shake up the order of who is in which place

Right now I see this as a three-way tie, but I think the polls are overestimating Romney's support in particular.

[CoffeeCat]

4. I think you are right...

I live in Iowa, and you are right about the Evangelical voters who wanted Bachman, Perry or Gingrich. I know some who supported those candidates and they weren't even planning on attending the caucuses. Now that the momentum is with Santorum, I think they'll all flock to him.

Also, support for Romney is incredibly lukewarm. Iowa caucus-goers are very religious and they're incredibly conservative. They do not like Romney at all, and they're only voting for him--because he's the Republican's establishment candidate. Iowa caucus goers do not like "the establishment" telling them who should be President. I think Romney will lose support to Santorum, because Santorum is now seen as more legitimate--and like he could win or place.

I also think that Paul will come in second. His supporters are very loyal, very politically aware and they're disgusted with every politician that isn't Paul. Anger is a great motivator.

I also think Romney will come in third. His support is very tepid with Iowa Republican caucus goers.

Also--The caucus system will play into the results. During a caucus--people move into candidate groups. Then a preliminary vote is taken. Then the fun begins. People start making speeches--discussing why their candidate deserves votes and trying to cajole supporters from other camps into their candidate camp. When everyone is finished "discussing"--a vote is taken.

Here's the clincher--(and this is very important!)--in order for a candidate to receive votes in a particular caucus--they must have a certain percentage of people in the room--on their side. For example--if a caucus room has 50 people--15 for Ron Paul, 15 for Santorum, 15 for Romney, 3 for Gingrich and 2 for Bachman---the Gingrich and Bachman people will NOT count! The supporters of Gingrich and Bachman--because they did not meet the percentage threshold--will have to go to other candidate camps. Or abstain and not be counted at all. So...more fun begins--because those candidate camps will be trying to woo these Gingrich/Bachman supporters into their camps. Rarely does a supporter abstain. They end up going into one of the camps. Therefore--looking at the candidates who will have very little support--you see they are VERY conservative and religious. Those outlying votes will most likely go to Santorum. It will depend on the dynamics of each individual caucus.

There are thousands of caucus sites around Iowa. Should be interesting!

Also, Mike Huckabee is endorsing someone tomorrow morning. Obviously, this is a strategic move to endorse so late in the game. Huckabee won the Iowa caucuses last time--garnering a majority of Iowa caucus votes. So, his endorsement could carry some weight. Huckabee's views are most definitely in line with Santorum's. We shall see!

[cthulu2016]

5. Wonderful post. Thanks! (Didnt know about the huckster)

[cthulu2016]

9. ...

[JoePhilly]

11. That's the scenario I'm hoping for!!

Romney 3rd or lower!

[opihimoimoi]

7. The Iowa Kiss of Death.....thats whot Santorum gets if he wins the caucuses...which have a religious

slant to them...

Heavy with EVANGELICALS. the winners usually reflect a Conservative Bent, tainting their odds

going forward...

The time has come when Guns and Nuns of yesteryear don work anymore....the 3rd Estate

demand their voice be heard....

The Power of Fantasy is being trumped by Reality and Sanity...

[joshcryer]

8. I was watching the news and might have imagined it, but I heard a lot of double entendre's...

...with regards to Santorum. It was glorious. Imagine how it'd be if he actually had lasting power (oh god, sorry).

[NNN0LHI]

10. Still say Romney would be the easiest one to beat

Santorum could pose problems.

Don

[maximusveritas]

12. If they were doing this caucus like the Democratic Party does, you'd be right

but the Republicans do a secret ballot after the initial meeting, so there's not as much jockeying.

[TomClash]

13. He's the flavor of the week

During the right week.

But I'd still be surprised if he won. Organization matters and he doesn't have one. For instance, e has no pulling operation, which is crucial in caucus states.