Seth Abramson: The significance of Nastya Rybka

[triron]

Link to tweet

[triron]

1. Seth's thread below unrolled

NOTES/ (1) We don't know if Rybka's claims are true—but we *do* know there's sufficient indicia of reliability in her statements to warrant a serious investigation; (2) this story is another example of the media underestimating the importance of women in the Trump-Russia probe.
10:53 AM - 3 Mar 2018

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19 replies 225 retweets 792 likes

New conversation
Seth Abramson
‏Verified account @SethAbramson
1h1 hour ago

1/ Understand that what Rybka appears to be claiming knowing of are two key facets of the Trump-Russia probe: (1) whether the Kremlin has compromising video of Trump from the Ritz Moscow; (2) whether Manafort was used by Trump as a backchannel to the Kremlin (via Oleg Deripaska).
10 replies 187 retweets 617 likes
Seth Abramson
‏Verified account @SethAbramson
1h1 hour ago

2/ Let's take the second claim first, and look at the situation as a criminal investigator would. First, we'd want to confirm Rybka knows Deripaska, let alone anything about clandestine behavior on his part. The answer to this is a clear YES: they're on video frolicking together.
7 replies 130 retweets 549 likes
Seth Abramson
‏Verified account @SethAbramson
1h1 hour ago

3/ Second, we'd want to know if there's any evidence Rybka has access to Deripaska's secrets. Again, the answer is a clear YES: they look to have had a romantic relationship, and the Kremlin has now banned a video of them together—suggesting they're worried about the association.
5 replies 142 retweets 587 likes
Seth Abramson
‏Verified account @SethAbramson
1h1 hour ago

4/ More than this, it's the *content* of the Rybka-Deripaska video—unearthed by Alexei Navalny—that's telling: Deripaska is heard discussing U.S.-Russia relations with a Kremlin agent, and other apparently secret (or secretive) topics. So clearly Rybka had access to such talks.
18 replies 150 retweets 574 likes
Seth Abramson
‏Verified account @SethAbramson
1h1 hour ago

5/ We also might look at third parties and ask, "How worried do they seem to be about her"? The answer here, again, is a YES—as in, *yes*, they're worried. Besides the Kremlin's video-banning, we can note that Rybka's arrest and detention has occurred under strange circumstances.
3 replies 94 retweets 429 likes
Seth Abramson
‏Verified account @SethAbramson
1h1 hour ago

6/ A powerful Kremlin figure is in Thailand to discuss "Russian tourists" at the same time a Russian tourist who potentially has intel damaging to the Kremlin is arrested by Thai authorities on a charge that would normally not be something Thai police would worry about? Uh, okay.
12 replies 107 retweets 471 likes
Seth Abramson
‏Verified account @SethAbramson
1h1 hour ago

7/ And you're telling me that the penalty for conviction for the exceedingly minor offense this Kremlin-threatening Russian tourist in Thailand was arrested for is to be *immediately turned over to Russian authorities*?

Look—all this would make any investigator's eyebrow raise.
5 replies 89 retweets 433 likes
Seth Abramson
‏Verified account @SethAbramson
59m59 minutes ago

8/ The point here is *not* that we know whether something untoward is happening—we do *not*. But that's not how investigation works. Investigation works on a "reasonable suspicion" basis, as in, "Do I have a *reasonable suspicion* that something untoward might be happening here?"
3 replies 67 retweets 377 likes
Seth Abramson
‏Verified account @SethAbramson
58m58 minutes ago

9/ Finally, we have to note that the people on the receiving end of this treatment—who have information we don't have on many fronts (the Kremlin's predilections, the info they themselves do/don't have, how Thai police would normally act)—all believe that they have been targeted.
3 replies 60 retweets 308 likes
Seth Abramson
‏Verified account @SethAbramson
57m57 minutes ago

10/ So if Rybka's present claim is, I have secrets about Oleg Deripaska and the Kremlin is upset about it, YES, we have some indicia of reliability that would suggest to the average criminal investigator that they should have a "reasonable suspicion" this claim could be accurate.
4 replies 67 retweets 341 likes
Seth Abramson
‏Verified account @SethAbramson
56m56 minutes ago

11/ How about the *other* side of things on this first aspect of the Rybka claim—the Manafort side of the Manafort-Deripaska connection? In other words, do we have evidence that Manafort could have or would have coordinated with Deripaska as to the Trump campaign? Uh, YES, we do.
2 replies 60 retweets 327 likes
Seth Abramson
‏Verified account @SethAbramson
54m54 minutes ago

12/ It's not just that Manafort used to work for Deripaska; it's not just that he still owes Deripaska money and—because Deripaska could be dangerous—still needs to repay that debt with money or favors; it's that Manafort is *known* to have made *just such an offer* to Deripaska.
6 replies 73 retweets 322 likes
Seth Abramson
‏Verified account @SethAbramson
52m52 minutes ago

13/ As media has reported, in Summer 2016, while he was Trump's Campaign Manager, Manafort used an intermediary to offer his old boss—to whom he owed a good deal of money—private, clandestine briefings on Trump-Russia policy (recall Deripaska talking U.S.-Russia policy on video).
2 replies 67 retweets 311 likes
Seth Abramson
‏Verified account @SethAbramson
51m51 minutes ago

14/ Note: an investigator would—excuse my language—give zero f*cks that Manafort and Deripaska have denied such briefings took place. Police give *zero* weight to a defendant's denials unless they have *significant* indicia of reliability (i.e., outside evidence to support them).
4 replies 56 retweets 295 likes
Seth Abramson
‏Verified account @SethAbramson
50m50 minutes ago

15/ There's *no* evidence indicating that Manafort and Deripaska did *not* have contact during the campaign, and ample evidence that they were inclined to do so and likely did. Moreover, there's a reasonable basis to think Trump would have known about such contacts. I'll explain.
2 replies 52 retweets 261 likes
Seth Abramson
‏Verified account @SethAbramson
49m49 minutes ago

16/ Manafort was Trump's Campaign Manager—a relationship of trust and candid communication. Trump had known Manafort for years—Manafort literally lives in Trump's building with Trump. Trump chose Manafort as his Campaign Manager *knowing* of his shady Russia-Ukraine associations.
4 replies 64 retweets 279 likes
Seth Abramson
‏Verified account @SethAbramson
48m48 minutes ago

17/ Moreover, after those associations blew up in Trump's face once they became public—leading to him "firing" (not really) Manafort—Trump continued to have a *clandestine relationship with Manafort* in which Manafort continued to be (as he previously had been) an unpaid advisor.
1 reply 56 retweets 254 likes
Seth Abramson
‏Verified account @SethAbramson
47m47 minutes ago

18/ But wait—there's more. NBC recently reported that Trump has privately told friends that Manafort could take him down—suggesting he *did* have the sort of relationship with Manafort in which damaging secrets were shared and not-quite-on-the-level schemes coordinated/executed.
5 replies 82 retweets 286 likes
Seth Abramson
‏Verified account @SethAbramson
46m46 minutes ago

19/ So yes, this side of Rybka's story also makes a great deal of sense: her closeness with Deripaska and his secrets *could* have given her access to the details of a Trump-Manafort-Kremlin association, conspiracy, and plot. Any investigator would want to look further into this.
4 replies 47 retweets 248 likes
Seth Abramson
‏Verified account @SethAbramson
44m44 minutes ago

20/ What of the other half of Rybka's claimed intelligence: information about Trump and Kremlin-provided escorts at the Ritz Moscow in November 2013? Once again, we find significant indicia of reliability attendant to her account in the public record, so we'd want to investigate.
4 replies 48 retweets 224 likes
Seth Abramson
‏Verified account @SethAbramson
42m42 minutes ago

21/ First, you have to forget what you have *not* been reading in U.S. media—which has completely avoided the Ritz Moscow story—because highly reliable foreign media have done a *ton* to underscore how likely this supposedly "salacious" aspect of the Steele Dossier is to be true.
3 replies 59 retweets 239 likes
Seth Abramson
‏Verified account @SethAbramson
41m41 minutes ago

22/ First, we'd want to ask whether it's likely such a video exists—and then, second, whether *if* it exists, it's likely that Rybka would have knowledge of it. The first is a clear YES, and the second an only slightly less strong YES. (I'll explain both parts of that statement.)
5 replies 43 retweets 195 likes
Seth Abramson
‏Verified account @SethAbramson
39m39 minutes ago

23/ In January 2017, the CIA confirmed to the BBC that a "tape of a sexual nature" from the Ritz Moscow exists, and Trump is on it. The CIA also said more than one U.S. ally's intel agency has the same information. This is a pretty promising start to answering our first question.
8 replies 91 retweets 258 likes
Seth Abramson
‏Verified account @SethAbramson
38m38 minutes ago

24/ The Steele Dossier—written by a former top MI6 operative considered that agency's primary Russia expert—used reliable MI6-derived Russian sources to confirm that the event occurred. The information is said to have come from both a Trump confidant *and* a Ritz Moscow employee.
5 replies 57 retweets 230 likes
Seth Abramson
‏Verified account @SethAbramson
36m36 minutes ago

25/ More: the Guardian and two other UK media outlets have one reliable source—but not yet the three they'd like—saying that they spoke to a Trump Org employee who was at the Ritz Moscow at the time and saw a fracas in the Ritz lobby about women being allowed up to Trump's room.
2 replies 41 retweets 201 likes
Seth Abramson
‏Verified account @SethAbramson
35m35 minutes ago

26/ That Trump Org employee has, per this reliable UK source, spoken to Mueller.

Moreover, the BBC has written of an American hotel guest at the Ritz Moscow who has confirmed the same information about a "fracas" in the Ritz Moscow lobby over women going up to Trump's room.
2 replies 45 retweets 201 likes
Seth Abramson
‏Verified account @SethAbramson
34m34 minutes ago

27/ Then there's Kata Sarka—Miss Hungary 2013—who says Trump propositioned her to go to his hotel room for sex on the very night he says he was being exceedingly cautious about not doing anything untoward in his room. That's one of many lies Trump has told about the Ritz Moscow.
3 replies 50 retweets 211 likes
Seth Abramson
‏Verified account @SethAbramson
33m33 minutes ago

28/ Trump has at some point lied about *every aspect* of his Moscow trip—how long it was, who he was with, what business was or was not conducted, how much he and his pageant were paid to take the trip, who he spoke with or didn't—which suggests he has something to hide about it.
4 replies 76 retweets 251 likes
Seth Abramson
‏Verified account @SethAbramson
31m31 minutes ago

29/ We also know Trump has a modus operandi of inviting women to hotel rooms for sexual exploits; a modus operandi of being careless as to when/how he does so; a modus operandi of being *successfully blackmailed* when it happens; a modus operandi of asking others to lie for him.
4 replies 63 retweets 236 likes
Seth Abramson
‏Verified account @SethAbramson
30m30 minutes ago

30/ And lie they did/have: Michael Cohen lied about paying off Stormy Daniels, and Keith Schiller clearly lied about how he conducted himself as Trump's bodyguard at the Ritz Moscow in November '13—saying he left Trump's door entirely unguarded after receiving a prostitute offer.
3 replies 45 retweets 182 likes

[Me.]

3. BookMarked

[dchill]

4. Well, then.

[pnwmom]

15. Thanks, triron!

[triron]

23. knr

[Iliyah]

2. I hope she don't go missing.

[Eyeball_Kid]

5. It would be terrible and unfortunate if something untoward would happen to her.

Anything could happen. It might even happen that she could be released and then lose her way home, and never be seen again. Such things happen.

[Bernardo de La Paz]

11. The more public she can be, the better insurance she has. . . . . nt

[IluvPitties]

6. I'm sure Russia and Trump are trying to get to her real bad.

[MineralMan]

7. That last name means "fish" in Russian

I assume it's a pseudonym. It's not a typical Russian surname. Nastya is a nickname for Natasha.

[grantcart]

10. Rybka, real name Anastasia Vashukevich

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5446907/Belarusian-sex-worker-alleges-Trump-Russia-tie-without-proof.html

[MineralMan]

13. Thanks.

Nastya is also a nickname for Anastasia.

[lame54]

8. Her name is Nasty

[grantcart]

9. This is the problem with Seth Abramson. He appears to have well documented and

tightly connected links, but under closer examination there is a lot less there than what he claims.

Here is a very thorough article by the Daily Mail that covers the story from the beginning

Let's just concentrate on the key issues:

1) Russian opposition leader Navalny exposed Rybka as a short time mistress to Deripaska.

2) At no time in the last 2 years has Rybka offered any claims that she knew about details of a Manafort/Deripaska connection and Navalny has found no evidence.

3) She now makes extraordinary claims that she has the evidence but if she had it, the time to release it would be NOW before she is repatriated from Thailand.

4) Navalny finds her claims unconvincing, and he should know, much better than Abramson.

Just because we want something to be true doesn't mean that it is. Rybka's claim would be like Storm Daniels claiming that she had written and video proof of a connection between Trump and Putin, something I would be very sceptical of.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5446907/Belarusian-sex-worker-alleges-Trump-Russia-tie-without-proof.html

Rybka's 2016 videos - linking Deripaska to a Russian Deputy Prime Minister - were used in an investigation by Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny.

Navalny's report made no claim that Rybka knew anything about a Russian campaign to influence the U.S. election, and she has produced no evidence that she does.

Speaking today about Rybka's claims, Navalny said he has 'certain doubts' that she has anything proving direct ties between Russia and the Trump campaign.

[Bernardo de La Paz]

19. Not so fast.

Re 2) just because she hasn't previously made the claim is no more reason to disbelieve it than we should disbelieve tRump's women accusers because they waited more than two years before coming forward.

3) Yes, now is the time for her to release evidence.

4) Navalny might know about certain Russian peculiarities or personalities, but would not necessarily know more about the big picture than Abramson.

[grantcart]

22. Trump's accusers weren't promoting themselves as the midding

link with proof of a Putin/Manafort/Trump connection which she is.

Trump's accusers were giving information on facts they saw not making things up to get out of jail because they were running sec tours.

[Skraxx]

12. Red Sparrow

[Marcuse]

17. I could not resist.

[mnmoderatedem]

14. this sounds like a job for Michael Cohen, or Devin Nunes.

intercept and shut this woman down.

Anything to protect the prez you know.

[keithbvadu2]

16. Another spare $130,000?

[Honeycombe8]

18. Well, she won't get asylum HERE. Not in Trump country.

Who is seeking asylum from?

[Soxderrube]

20. Oh goody

She will sing and tRumpp will swing.

[AdamGG]

21. Extradition back to Belarus/Russia would be the end of her