5 Reasons Democrat Conor Lamb could win Pennsylvania's 18th District special election

[RandySF]

1. The polling is tight
A Monmouth University poll taken in the middle of February put Saccone up by a 49% to 46% margin. The average of all public polls taken in the race have shown a similarly tight race.

2. The trend in special elections during Trump's presidency

Democrats have so far been outperforming their presidential baseline by about 13 points in Trump-era special state and federal elections. If you were to take into account the Mitt Romney versus Barack Obama margin and the Trump versus Hillary Clinton margin in the districts and states with special elections so far and then tried to project how the Pennsylvania 18 special election would go, you'd expect Saccone to emerge victorious by less than 8 points.

3. Trump's relative lack of popularity

Yes, Trump won by 20 points in Pennsylvania 18, but look at the Monmouth poll. His approval rating in the district is just 51% to a 47% disapproval rating. If voters were casting a ballot solely on how they felt about Trump, a tight race would be expected.

4. The Democratic Party registration edge

So far in special elections during the Trump era, it turns out that the 2012 presidential results in a district or state have actually been a far better indicator of the outcome than the 2016 results. That suggests that ancestrally Democratic areas that went heavily for Trump may be reverting back to form.

5. The district is well educated

When some people think of southwest Pennsylvania (where Pennsylvania 18 is located) and the Rust Belt, they probably think of voters who lack a college degree. That's part of the reason southwestern Pennsylvania went so heavily for Trump.

Pennsylvania 18 doesn't really fit that mold, however. According to the 2016 American Community Survey, 37% of all adults 25 years and older in Pennsylvania 18 hold at least a college degree. That's higher than any other congressional district in that part of Pennsylvania. It's also higher than the 31% of Americans 25 years and older nationally who have at least a college degree.



https://www.cnn.com/2018/03/01/politics/five-reasons-conor-lamb-could-win/index.html

[edhopper]

1. Trump's Steel tarriffs

will help the GOP there.

[spinbaby]

6. No, not really. Very little steel left in these parts.

Some coal.

I live in the city of Washington and must say that Conor Lamb’s ground game is good—reminds me a lot of Obama. If it’s a fair election, Lamb will win.

[edhopper]

7. I hope so.

[dchill]

2. 6. Joe Biden.

[CaliforniaPeggy]

3. I continue to be hopeful that Lamb will win. n/t

[fmdaddio]

5. #5

They are well educated. I went to college with a large number of idiots.
But let's see how smart they are. If they are Lamb is a shoe in.

Then again I self deleted my last reply due to an obvious spelling error.