The overhyped, unrepresentative Iowa caucuses

[Lasher]

DES MOINES -- A total of 119,188 people participated in the 2008 Iowa Republican caucuses. That's about 20 percent of Iowa's registered Republicans, 4 percent of the population of Iowa, and .04 percent of the total U.S. population; it's also less than half as many people as fit into the seats at the Indianapolis Motor Speedway.

Every four years, this relatively tiny group of people -- a subset of a subset of a subset - holds extraordinary power. Their whims, and those of their Democratic counterparts, are breathlessly followed by a narrative-hungry media laser-focused on the first-in-the-nation voting event, and candidates that do poorly in the caucuses often drop out of the presidential race.

<snip>

The state GOP states that Iowans ask candidates "detailed questions about particular policies" and boasts that "some presidential candidates have noted that Iowa voters ask some of the most sophisticated and nuanced policy questions they receive while on the campaign trail." But it's hard to see why residents of other states wouldn't do the former, and the latter sure sounds a lot like classic political pandering.

Iowa has gone first in the voting process since 1972, and it ensures its status with a law mandating that its contest take place before any other state. (Both the Democratic and Republican parties are on board with the state's spot on the calendar, and cater party rules in ways that have maintained the status quo.) Iowa is fiercely protective of its status, and it's easy to see why: The influx of candidates and media provide a major economic boost to the state, and members of its political establishment clearly enjoy their status as potential kingmakers. (There have been accusations in this presidential cycle from Michele Bachmann and others that highly-sought endorsements were essentially bought.)

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_162-57350781-503544/the-overhyped-unrepresentative-iowa-caucuses/

[CanonRay]

1. So, Iowa has pretty much overseen the U.S. falling off a cliff in slow motion

Wonder if Iowa going first has anything to do with the U.S. being dragged to the right all these years.

[Surya Gayatri]

3. Interesting speculation, Canon...

How would the last 30 years of elections have unfolded if, say, Wisconsin or Connecticut had gone first? First results do influence those who vote later.

[CanonRay]

4. I think going first sets the paramaters, if not the results

I absolutely believe Iowa has played a large role in dragging the Republicans far to the right, and thus the rest of us as well.

[Lasher]

5. Or what would it have been like if every state voted on the same day, as in the general election?

That's the way it should be but I don't see that happening.

[Surya Gayatri]

6. You're right, Lasher, that's the way it should be...

The unwieldy, expensive, time-consuming system
in place today does a disservice to democracy.

[Lasher]

7. In the grand scheme of things, Iowa is almost never determinative.

Since 1972, only three non-incumbent candidates won the Iowa caucuses and went on to win the presidency — Carter, George W. Bush, and President Obama.

The caucuses are seen less as a predictor of the eventual nominee than as a contest that winnows the field. Conventional wisdom has it that there are three tickets out of Iowa — “first-class, coach, and standby.” Anyone who competes in Iowa but comes in fourth place or lower will have a hard time recovering, the argument goes.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/post/why-and-how-iowa-votes-first/2011/12/05/gIQAgTRiKP_blog.html

By the time the primary gets around to other states, some candidates will have dropped out, thereby limiting our choices - so severely in some years that most people's primary votes become purely academic.

[Surya Gayatri]

8. Then why, for chrissake, is so

much airtime, bandwidth and newsprint spent on it?
I know, I know, the 24/7 news cycle, etc. etc.
Thanks for the link, by the way.

[Surya Gayatri]

2. Overhyped, over-analysed, and over soon, thank God! n/t