****BREAKING**** Lamb 51% Saccone 45% *

[DemocratSinceBirth]

West Long Branch, NJ – Democrat Conor Lamb has taken a lead over Republican Rick Saccone in the special election for Pennsylvania’s 18th Congressional District. The Monmouth University Poll finds PA18 voters are divided on whether recently announced steel tariffs will help or hurt the local economy, but very few say this policy will influence their vote in Tuesday’s election to fill the open House seat.

Lamb holds a 51% to 45% lead over Saccone if turnout yields a Democratic surge similar to voting patterns seen in other special elections over the past year. * Another 1% opt for a third party candidate and 3% are undecided. Lamb also has the edge using a historical midterm lower turnout model, albeit by a much smaller 49% to 47% margin. A model with higher turnout overall, similar to a presidential electorate, gives Lamb a 51% to 44% advantage. This marks a turnaround from last month’s Monmouth poll of the race, when Saccone held a small lead in all the models – 49% to 46% in the surge model, 48% to 44% in the high turnout model, and 50% to 45% in the low turnout model.

“This district has voted overwhelmingly Republican in recent elections, but a large number of these voters have blue-collar Democratic roots. Lamb seems to have connected with them,” said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute.

Lamb earns a net positive 53% favorable and 33% unfavorable rating from likely voters in PA18. Opinion is somewhat more divided on Saccone at 47% favorable and 43% unfavorable. Fully 95% of self-identified Democrats support Lamb (to 5% for Saccone), while 88% of self-identified Republicans support Saccone (to 9% for Lamb). Independents prefer Lamb by a 51% to 45% margin.

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_pa_031218/

VOTE. IF YOU DON'T VOTE POLLS DON't MATTER.

No Cassandras in this thread. Please post elsewhere. Thank you in advance,

Love, DSB

[chuckstevens]

1. This will be SO FRICKEN SWEET, if Lamb pulls it off!

[DemocratSinceBirth]

2. Especially after the Porno President gratuitously insulted him.

Nothing should be taken for granted but if we win this we will rock the Porno President and his GOP enablers world.

[MontanaMama]

29. pResident Porno!

Classic. Just classic!

[Demsrule86]

3. I would be so happy after the Dotard came down and did his

campaign bullshit..and he failed. Oh Joy!

[PA Democrat]

4. Lamb's campaign is running a very muscular GOTV effort here in PA-18

Four Lamb voters in our house and I have lost count of the text messages, phone calls, and even a visit from a Lamb volunteer that we have received since Saturday.

I hear that a right wing PAC is bringing in door knockers for Saccone.

I will be at my polling place first thing tomorrow to cast my vote!

[Still In Wisconsin]

5. So the TRUMP Effect has kicked in! Seems to be worth four or five points for the Dem.

So much winning!

[LBM20]

7. Ha. I get the humor. But actually, he is the kind of Dem who can win in these areas. Culturally

moderate to conservative while economically populist. He focuses very heavily on jobs and the economy, healthcare, and dealing the opioid crisis. This is the kind of Dem we need to take back small towns and more rural areas.

[DeminPennswoods]

8. He's what you might call a Casey Democrat

nt

[Still In Wisconsin]

19. I know it... we need some candidates like this in Wisconsin. Then we need the

Democratic Party of Wisconsin to drop their stupid purity tests and actually support someone who can win in rural districts.

[DeminPennswoods]

28. The Casey's are pro-life from birth to death

They oppose abortion, but they also oppose the death penalty and they support social programs, spending and safety nets for the most vulnerable among us. They live the Catholic Social Teachings. I don't find this incompatible with the tenets of the Democratic Party and I am pro-choice.

[Still In Wisconsin]

30. I'm right there with you, and I am a pro-choice Jew.

Take any of the major faith traditions other than the fringe elements (which exist in every faith including Judaism) and I can buy 95% of what they are offering. I've got lots of old-guard Catholic friends (this IS Wisconsin after all) and to a person, they support everything the Democratic party has traditionally stood for. Problem is, some have been swindled (in my opinion) into believing that the modern-day Democratic Party no longer represents their interests. THAT, my friend, is what must change.

[LBM20]

33. Yup. Need the same in northern Maine. People who can relate to working class folks.

[Still In Wisconsin]

35. How did the Party lose its advantage with working folks, I wonder.

I mean, we can all identify WHEN it happened, but it's the how that I just can't understand. All I can come up with is that the other side has mastered the politics of resentment... but why did this start working? It's not like resentment, especially that based upon racial or religious divisions, is a new phenomenon.

[DeminPennswoods]

40. In the modern era, I'd say it goes back to Nixon

Remember he had his "silent majority", essentially older white voters who were scared by the civil rights movement, the VN war protestors, the "counterculture", etc. That was accompanied by the "Southern Strategy" to win by seperating white working class voters from their ecomonic interests using cultural hot button issues like abortion, guns, etc.

[OldHippieChick]

6. GOTV

Everything is get out the vote. If you are asked to make calls into the State for Lamb and can give even an hour - do so. My favorite line is "once you vote I will leave you alone"

[mr_liberal]

9. Pelosi is playing a big role again. Lamb is is distancing himself from her. nm

[getagrip_already]

13. republicans hate powerful woman...

but it's not a reason to throw them in the trash. Smart politics before an election shouldn't become policy/. we don't need to pick leaders the republicans like.

[mr_liberal]

21. She is a leader they like because she helps them win. nm

[getagrip_already]

24. respectfully call bs

They attack any and every woman who rises in stature, and especially those in leadership roles. Maxine Watters and Elizabeth Warren are just two other examples, but there are many more.

Too many so called dems are too easily scared by gop attacks. Oh Nose - we can't keep HER because the republicans will attack her.

They don't get to chose our leadership. Grow a set and defend our leaders, don't tear them down publically.

[mr_liberal]

27. Tell that to Lamb. He is publically distancing himself.

He knows Pelosi turns off swing voters that decide elections, he's being smart.

[Hortensis]

31. What has Lamb had to do with Pelosi, tho? He was

a federal prosecutor in the U.S. Attorney's office in Pittsburgh. Why anyone think he needs to phony distance himself? Does this phony association with Pelosi require him to distance himself from mad cow disease also?

Btw, as a prosecutor he worked on the illegal opioid cases, and seeing the devastation firsthand means attacking this crisis from congress will be one of his top priorities when elected.

[LBM20]

34. It's not personal, but the problem is she is an old school establishment CA coast Dem who does not

play in the heartland. She should not have been put back in leadership. Time for NEW BLOOD.

[iluvtennis]

32. Ditto.

[FakeNoose]

20. Saccone's TV ads are all "anti-Nancy Pelosi"

...which is ridiculous because he's not running against Pelosi. But that's the message that the RNC wants people to hear.

Conor Lamb is a good-looking and smart young man, a former Marine who works as a prosecuting attorney in the federal prosecuting attorney's office. He has a good record against drug dealers, gangs, gun runners, etc. and he comes from a well-known Pittsburgh Democratic family. His credentials are the best, and he has worked hard on this campaign.

Even if I weren't a Democrat, I'd vote for this guy. But alas, I don't live in the 18th district. My sister does and she will be voting for Conor tomorrow.

[Ace Rothstein]

39. I think that works in VERY red districts.

They are terrified of Pelosi. It won't work in swing districts or those that lean R.

[pepperbear]

10. Some links..

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/03/12/conor-lamb-leads-rick-saccone-in-pa-special-election-monmouth-poll.html

https://www.politico.com/amp/story/2018/03/12/poll-pennsylvania-special-election-454909

https://amp.thedailybeast.com/conor-lamb-rick-saccone-poll-winning-pennsylvania-pa-18-trump

[GusBob]

11. I will never ever trust polls again

It used to irk me people that said that

There are polls, trolls and people who comment on yahoo...

[keithbvadu2]

16. There are many polls. Pick the one you like and swear by it. Swear at the others.

There are many polls.

Pick the one you like and swear by it.

Swear at the others.

[flibbitygiblets]

12. Quest-ce que c"est Cassandra?

I assume some kind of naysaying?

[RobertDevereaux]

22. From Greek mythology...

Cassandra accurately predicted the future and was cursed with never being believed.

[oberliner]

14. I think you need to correct the link

Here, maybe?

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_pa_031218/

[llmart]

15. Sending good vibes PA's way!

Let's do this!!!!

[keithbvadu2]

17. Dotard's support for Saccone

Last edited Mon Mar 12, 2018, 11:34 PM - Edit history (1)

[LiberalArkie]

18. Who is counting the votes up there?

[Honeycombe8]

23. Trump worked his magic!!!!

Lamb's numbers went UP! But I wonder...this was one of the states that Russia focused on for a Trump win, IMO. Will they do it again for a special election for Saccone? Or is it too risky for someone not running for President?

[Awsi Dooger]

25. We need to keep independents tilted in our direction

That's the whole ball game, massively more significant than GOTV.

Preference dominates turnout.

[Honeycombe8]

37. +1. nt

[IluvPitties]

26. Let's bring it home!

[bdamomma]

36. good

for those voters who go vote your country needs you.

[Honeycombe8]

38. This is great news. But remember: Clinton was leading in polls in PA.

Until Russia intervened (IMO).

[oasis]

41. Saccone Dumped After Trump's Stump.