General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region Forums****BREAKING**** Lamb 51% Saccone 45% *
West Long Branch, NJ Democrat Conor Lamb has taken a lead over Republican Rick Saccone in the special election for Pennsylvanias 18th Congressional District. The Monmouth University Poll finds PA18 voters are divided on whether recently announced steel tariffs will help or hurt the local economy, but very few say this policy will influence their vote in Tuesdays election to fill the open House seat.
Lamb holds a 51% to 45% lead over Saccone if turnout yields a Democratic surge similar to voting patterns seen in other special elections over the past year. * Another 1% opt for a third party candidate and 3% are undecided. Lamb also has the edge using a historical midterm lower turnout model, albeit by a much smaller 49% to 47% margin. A model with higher turnout overall, similar to a presidential electorate, gives Lamb a 51% to 44% advantage. This marks a turnaround from last months Monmouth poll of the race, when Saccone held a small lead in all the models 49% to 46% in the surge model, 48% to 44% in the high turnout model, and 50% to 45% in the low turnout model.
This district has voted overwhelmingly Republican in recent elections, but a large number of these voters have blue-collar Democratic roots. Lamb seems to have connected with them, said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute.
Lamb earns a net positive 53% favorable and 33% unfavorable rating from likely voters in PA18. Opinion is somewhat more divided on Saccone at 47% favorable and 43% unfavorable. Fully 95% of self-identified Democrats support Lamb (to 5% for Saccone), while 88% of self-identified Republicans support Saccone (to 9% for Lamb). Independents prefer Lamb by a 51% to 45% margin.
https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_pa_031218/
VOTE. IF YOU DON'T VOTE POLLS DON't MATTER.
No Cassandras in this thread. Please post elsewhere. Thank you in advance,
Love, DSB
chuckstevens
(1,201 posts)DemocratSinceBirth
(99,708 posts)Nothing should be taken for granted but if we win this we will rock the Porno President and his GOP enablers world.
MontanaMama
(23,294 posts)Classic. Just classic!
Demsrule86
(68,455 posts)campaign bullshit..and he failed. Oh Joy!
PA Democrat
(13,225 posts)Four Lamb voters in our house and I have lost count of the text messages, phone calls, and even a visit from a Lamb volunteer that we have received since Saturday.
I hear that a right wing PAC is bringing in door knockers for Saccone.
I will be at my polling place first thing tomorrow to cast my vote!
Still In Wisconsin
(4,450 posts)So much winning!
LBM20
(1,580 posts)moderate to conservative while economically populist. He focuses very heavily on jobs and the economy, healthcare, and dealing the opioid crisis. This is the kind of Dem we need to take back small towns and more rural areas.
DeminPennswoods
(15,265 posts)nt
Still In Wisconsin
(4,450 posts)Democratic Party of Wisconsin to drop their stupid purity tests and actually support someone who can win in rural districts.
DeminPennswoods
(15,265 posts)They oppose abortion, but they also oppose the death penalty and they support social programs, spending and safety nets for the most vulnerable among us. They live the Catholic Social Teachings. I don't find this incompatible with the tenets of the Democratic Party and I am pro-choice.
Still In Wisconsin
(4,450 posts)Take any of the major faith traditions other than the fringe elements (which exist in every faith including Judaism) and I can buy 95% of what they are offering. I've got lots of old-guard Catholic friends (this IS Wisconsin after all) and to a person, they support everything the Democratic party has traditionally stood for. Problem is, some have been swindled (in my opinion) into believing that the modern-day Democratic Party no longer represents their interests. THAT, my friend, is what must change.
LBM20
(1,580 posts)Still In Wisconsin
(4,450 posts)I mean, we can all identify WHEN it happened, but it's the how that I just can't understand. All I can come up with is that the other side has mastered the politics of resentment... but why did this start working? It's not like resentment, especially that based upon racial or religious divisions, is a new phenomenon.
DeminPennswoods
(15,265 posts)Remember he had his "silent majority", essentially older white voters who were scared by the civil rights movement, the VN war protestors, the "counterculture", etc. That was accompanied by the "Southern Strategy" to win by seperating white working class voters from their ecomonic interests using cultural hot button issues like abortion, guns, etc.
OldHippieChick
(2,434 posts)Everything is get out the vote. If you are asked to make calls into the State for Lamb and can give even an hour - do so. My favorite line is "once you vote I will leave you alone"
mr_liberal
(1,017 posts)getagrip_already
(14,605 posts)but it's not a reason to throw them in the trash. Smart politics before an election shouldn't become policy/. we don't need to pick leaders the republicans like.
mr_liberal
(1,017 posts)getagrip_already
(14,605 posts)They attack any and every woman who rises in stature, and especially those in leadership roles. Maxine Watters and Elizabeth Warren are just two other examples, but there are many more.
Too many so called dems are too easily scared by gop attacks. Oh Nose - we can't keep HER because the republicans will attack her.
They don't get to chose our leadership. Grow a set and defend our leaders, don't tear them down publically.
mr_liberal
(1,017 posts)He knows Pelosi turns off swing voters that decide elections, he's being smart.
Hortensis
(58,785 posts)a federal prosecutor in the U.S. Attorney's office in Pittsburgh. Why anyone think he needs to phony distance himself? Does this phony association with Pelosi require him to distance himself from mad cow disease also?
Btw, as a prosecutor he worked on the illegal opioid cases, and seeing the devastation firsthand means attacking this crisis from congress will be one of his top priorities when elected.
LBM20
(1,580 posts)play in the heartland. She should not have been put back in leadership. Time for NEW BLOOD.
iluvtennis
(19,825 posts)FakeNoose
(32,555 posts)...which is ridiculous because he's not running against Pelosi. But that's the message that the RNC wants people to hear.
Conor Lamb is a good-looking and smart young man, a former Marine who works as a prosecuting attorney in the federal prosecuting attorney's office. He has a good record against drug dealers, gangs, gun runners, etc. and he comes from a well-known Pittsburgh Democratic family. His credentials are the best, and he has worked hard on this campaign.
Even if I weren't a Democrat, I'd vote for this guy. But alas, I don't live in the 18th district. My sister does and she will be voting for Conor tomorrow.
Ace Rothstein
(3,140 posts)They are terrified of Pelosi. It won't work in swing districts or those that lean R.
pepperbear
(5,648 posts)GusBob
(7,286 posts)It used to irk me people that said that
There are polls, trolls and people who comment on yahoo...
keithbvadu2
(36,640 posts)There are many polls.
Pick the one you like and swear by it.
Swear at the others.
flibbitygiblets
(7,220 posts)I assume some kind of naysaying?
RobertDevereaux
(1,847 posts)Cassandra accurately predicted the future and was cursed with never being believed.
oberliner
(58,724 posts)llmart
(15,532 posts)Let's do this!!!!
keithbvadu2
(36,640 posts)Last edited Mon Mar 12, 2018, 11:34 PM - Edit history (1)
LiberalArkie
(15,703 posts)Honeycombe8
(37,648 posts)Lamb's numbers went UP! But I wonder...this was one of the states that Russia focused on for a Trump win, IMO. Will they do it again for a special election for Saccone? Or is it too risky for someone not running for President?
Awsi Dooger
(14,565 posts)That's the whole ball game, massively more significant than GOTV.
Preference dominates turnout.
Honeycombe8
(37,648 posts)IluvPitties
(3,181 posts)bdamomma
(63,791 posts)for those voters who go vote your country needs you.
Honeycombe8
(37,648 posts)Until Russia intervened (IMO).