In your opinion how many Trump voters, would never vote for him again?

[Stuart G]

This can be from personal experience in talking to them, just an opinion, or research or whatever. I rarely talk to anyone who voted for him. But I know people here have, and there are surveys out there. I honestly do not believe that Trump could ever get 62,000,000 votes again. The last election in Pennsylvania proved many Trumpers have changed their minds. But what do you think? My guess is that Trump has lost at least 15,000,000 of those votes. But I haven't got a clue. What do you think? Thanks for reading this.

[crazycatlady]

1. I'd say 5-10%

Thing is when campaigns talk about reaching out to them, we don't know who they are.

Democratic campaigns who use VAN can see a voter's voting record. But who they voted for is anyone's guess because it is secret. The only thing a campaign sees is if they voted, how they voted (early, absentee, in person, etc), and if the primary they voted in was D or R.

We can also see how a precinct voted. So if you're in precinct XYZ and it went 80% for Trump, there's an educated guess that you (generic) voted for him.

[underpants]

3. VAN

Details? I’m interested

[crazycatlady]

6. AKA Vote Builder

If you've ever volunteered on a Democratic campaign and have been given call or walk lists, they're probably generated from there.

It's a computerized voter file that's run by the DNC and state party. Each state has their own and campaigns buy access to it.

[Stuart G]

4. If it were 7% that would be about 4,200,000 who would not vote for him again

Thanks for your opinion. As I said, I do not know.

[underpants]

2. 5%

That was the FU/joke/ she’s gonna win anyway vote that put him over the top

That and voter suppression

[BootinUp]

33. 5% is possible imo but probably overstated. nt

[LisaM]

5. I know one, and it's over animal policy.

That's the kind of thing that needs to be played up more.

[Squinch]

7. This ppp poll say 77% of his voters would not want him to resign if

https://www.newsmax.com/politics/ppp-poll-trump-voters-support-him-others/2017/12/17/id/832198/

he was found guilty of collusion. Probably a higher percentage would be happy to vote for him again.

So he has lost very little of his support.

[pepperbear]

37. That article is from December, and Newsmax is about as far right as you can get.

I'm not trusting the source.

[Glamrock]

8. I know 8-10

Beyond that, beats me.

[Awsi Dooger]

9. He'll lose as many from death as change of preference

Silent Generation and mortality.

Otherwise I wouldn't count on many of his voters abandoning him. Any losses will be from independents who sway in fragile fashion based on the mood of the moment. Many of them wanted change in 2016. They have shifted anti-Trump in 2018 but that type is very vulnerable to returning to the incumbent two years after that, just like Clinton from '94 to '96 and Obama from '10 to '12.

I never take anything for granted against an incumbent whose party has been in power only one term. That is the most favorable scenario in American politics, and nothing else is a close second.

Anybody who thinks Trump is losing support among Republicans doesn't have any Republicans friends and doesn't sample forums where right wingers participate. That type right now is convinced CNN is nothing but lies and the enemy of the country. The 15 million estimate is preposterous.

Never be a Happy Adjuster...someone who makes wild subjective alterations merely because it suits their bias.

Other than mood of independents the electorate is very similar to where it was in November 2016. We cannot count on the same type of voter enthusiasm gap that we enjoyed in the Pennsylvania race. Big picture with emphasis and money from both sides that type of variable naturally balances out.

[FakeNoose]

18. Some people will just stay home, some will vote against him next time

It's going to really matter who the Democratic candidate is before we can give a good guess.

I think a lot of crossover Dems who voted for Trump last time WON'T do it again. But I'll admit this is wishful thinking on my part. All I know about are my own friends and acquaintances. It seems a lot of older/conservative Dems are not going to vote for a woman, as we learned in 2016.

[njhoneybadger]

10. The right did such a good job of demonizing Hillary

Those who voted for tRump would have voted for almost anybody instead of Hillary.
If tRump had ran against Joe Biden things would have been different.
It depends on who tRumps opponent would be.

[MyOwnPeace]

17. Liking many of these posts...........

but I'm gonna' agree here - any changes away from IQ45 are those that were not strong supporters, but rather, "anybody but Hillary."

I'm not seeing any shift here in western PA (yes, I know, Conor Lamb won - thank God!) but truly, the election did not have IQ45 on the ballot - but it did reflect disgust with the current state of government.
I still keep hearing what a great job IQ45 is doing!

(And no, I don't even TRY to open their eyes )

[njhoneybadger]

30. It's the same in northern NJ(very red)Low information and think he is doing alright.

And yup no one so blind as those who can not see

[Stuart G]

32. Thank you for your opinion, also thanks to post 30..for that info.

Some people hate so much......they cannot see thru the hate...

[Voltaire2]

11. All of the trump voters

who have died since the last election.

[Stuart G]

12. This is from the NYT..from last Tuesday's election

Pennsylvania Special Election Results: Lamb Wins 18th ...link is unavailable, I tried it many times.


4 days ago - ... a Democrat, pulled off a narrow but major upset by winning a special House election in the heart of Pennsylvania Trump country. Mr. Lamb won in the state's 18th Congressional District, a reliably Republican seat in recent elections and an area that Donald J. Trump won by nearly 20 percentage points in 2016.



But this I do know, Trump has created a lot of bad feelings toward him. And those feelings and attitudes did not exist in 2016.

[njhoneybadger]

16. I bet if Saccone ran against Hillary instead of Conor he would have won.

[MyOwnPeace]

19. Yep!

The marvelous lady is a lightening rod for RW nutjobs! SAD!

[JI7]

13. I think some will just not vote again. The old ones dying off

Will not be replaced with same or more numbers since the younger generations are more diverse and liberal.

But he will still get a lot more than he should. Even if a dem wins with way more.

But most important will be things like russia hack and gop suppression in order to help republicans win.

[BigmanPigman]

14. How many tRump voters does it take to screw in a light bulb?

I answered your question with a question.

[Turbineguy]

15. He has an 87% approval rating

among his dolts.

[meadowlander]

21. Those numbers may preselect people

Who still are willing to identify as Trump voters. It may not capture people so embarrassed they won’t admit to it now.

[bearsfootball516]

20. You realize that youre saying you think hes get a maximum 47 million votes in 2020?

We haven’t had a candidate get 47 million since 1996, and that was before tens of millions of people started voting.

He’ll at most lose 2 million IMO. Drops from 62 to 60.

[Demsrule86]

22. Quite a few...if you look at the PA special election...he won by 20% in 16.

[MyOwnPeace]

23. Of course, in the course of this discussion...........

we have not considered the fact that Mueller may well have him behind bars by then and we've all "wasted our time" considering something that cannot/should not/hopefully will not happen!

[Stuart G]

24. This is the results from a nbc/wsj - Poll...that came out today

Trump's 43% approval rating is the lowest of his predecessors at this point in his presidency, according to NBC, lagging one point behind the previous lowest record of 44% set by President Gerald R. Ford. For presidents other than Trump, the average approval rating at 14 months into the term is 58%.

The latest poll shows a shift in Democrats' favor compared to January's 49% to 43% edge. It also found higher early enthusiasm for the upcoming election among Democratic voters; 60% said they have a high degree of interest, while 54% of Republicans said they did.

The findings about the midterms come as Democratic candidates are making gains in national special elections. On Tuesday, Democrat Conor Lamb declared victory in the special election for Pennsylvania's 18th Congressional District -- a jurisdiction Trump won handily in 2016. In light of the expected upset, CNN made changes to its rating of 17 House races -- all of them in the direction of the Democrats


https://www.cnn.com/2018/03/18/politics/nbc-wsj-poll-march-18/index.html

[Awsi Dooger]

25. Trump would have won Alabama or PA-18 by landslide

That's the misconception leading to this type of thread...assigning failures by members of his party to what would happen if Trump himself were on the ballot.

The conclusions are ludicrous. Nobody ever claimed Roy Moore or Rick Saccone could shoot someone on 5th Avenue and not lose any votes. Trump in an election defending himself and boasting of himself would enjoy immense teflon and margin for error. He will lie nonstop and twist any Democratic challenger. We may not like it, but it's the reality. Right now his margin in Alabama senate or PA-18 would not be equal to 2016 but it would be substantial...comfortably double digits.

Right wing voters who didn't care about sitting at home or opposing those flawed GOP candidates would make it an ultimate priority to show up and champion Donald Trump and everything he stands for.

This is the same type of thing I told right wingers in 1994 and 2010. They hated me for it, in Las Vegas during 1994 and on sports sites in 2010. Enjoy your brief window of situationally slanted dominance but don't be stupid enough to believe it fully applies two years hence, when the terrain won't threaten to resemble today.

[Stuart G]

27. I disagree. I think there would be chang.

This is what you say

"Right now his margin in Alabama senate or PA-18 would not be equal to 2016 but it would be substantial...comfortably double digits."

Last sentence, 2nd paragraph.

I think there has been a real change in attitude toward Trump. I guess it depends on how strong and how many the right wing voters there are. I believe strong right wingers, are not the same as republicans. At most, strong right wingers represent 25 percent of the population at any given time. In Alabama, maybe 35 percent. But the rest, I think have seen Trump for what he is. An unstable, insane bully. Yes, 25 percent like the bully but most people don't. Trump the bully will lose. I just don't know what the change would be. I know you don't agree. But I think even in Alabama and PA-18 Trump would/will lose now.

[dameatball]

26. I am going to go with.......9. The rest of you are too gullible.

[genxlib]

28. This assumes he will actually run again

Even if he runs, he will be primaried and there it could be a serious challenge.

I happen to think he will raise money for two more years then take a pass on running again. He hates losing and doesn't really want to be the president so why would he.

That is of course if Mueller doesn't get him first.

[Stuart G]

29. What a great point you made...Will he make it ..to.. "actually run again"

The game changes if Pence is in as president. Or if both Pence and Trump are gone. The game also changes if we win big in November....but, in my opinion...the game has already changed

Some Trump voters will never vote for him again. But would those same people who would not vote for Trump again, change to vote for a democrat, if say Ryan were president..(after Pence and Trump were gone)

Question...has a deep change been made in enough republicans, because of Trump, to make sure they would not vote for a republican again? ... That is a different question than the original post..

[secondwind]

31. I know 2 people who voted for him and regret it

[mackdaddy]

34. Maybe 5-10%. Fox Nuze watchers are probably permanently Brain Damaged.

As long as they get their daily propaganda fix they are impervious to facts.

Unfortunately they do vote though.

[StevieM]

35. He can win them again under some circumstances. And he can get new voters too, given the right

conditions. You never know what might happen.

Still, I think we can beat him.

[Paladin]

36. Not nearly enough for us to waste time and resources on.

Let the regretful ones make their way back to our side on their own. To hell with the rest of them.

[Stuart G]

39. I have to disagree with this...Let us say, just for discussion,

that 3% would change the course of the election. Three percent. And with that 3 percent, the democrats would take back the House of Representatives and the Senate. That three percent would have to be perfectly distributed in the correct places...Also with that 3%..Trump would be gone for good....

Now..is it a waste of time and resources to fight for that 3 percent?...No one knows if it will be 3percent or 5 percent..
....WE MUST FIGHT SO THOSE PEOPLE DON'T VOTE FOR TRUMP AND HIS CROWD.. perhaps working to change them away from Trump, will make the difference...for example............................

someone who voted for Trump, but hates what he has done....says...I hate him so much, I will vote for the Democrat this time

and those votes give us the House and the Senate.....Is it worth it? Should we waste or time and resources on them???

[Stuart G]

40. There is an interview with one of these people right now...at the post below

https://upload.democraticunderground.com/100210377802

Further, the interview discusses why they changed and it was in Penn - 18....and they helped to make the difference because they voted for Lamb.

[Ilsa]

41. If the gop narrowed their primaries, and someone will

primary trump, I am not sure trump would be their candidate.