Russian/American tit-for-tat expulsions
It looks like the reports of the Russian expulsions have pundits scratching their heads, wondering how trump agreed to those.
Everyone has a theory, so here's mine.
First off, it's not entirely clear whether we or the Russians will be able to replace the officials expelled, even if they are assigned to other locations. So, it may not be a reduction in personnel but rather a blip.
Here's my theory. Putin wanted American intel out of St. Petersburg. Doesn't matter why, but let's just say that this was his goal. The only way for him to achieve that goal would be to have his agent in the White House expel or at least not stop the expulsion of the Russians from Seattle and elsewhere. That gave Putin his opportunity to close hobble the American consulate in St. Petersburg.
From an intelligence perspective, none of this should be a major problem. I would expect that the intel officers on the ground have communications plans that account for the continuation of operations using either technical means or human support from other locations in Russia or America, or from third countries.
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