Obama could lose....

[surfdog]

Colorado New Mexico Nevada Iowa Virginia North Carolina Indiana and Ohio

And still win.

When you hear people like Tweety on the TV claiming Obama has to win Pennsylvania or Iowa he's just making shit up

I just don't see a path to victory for the GOP , am I missing something ?

[elleng]

1. I haven't done any numbers, but I sure don't listen to Tweety, about ANYTHING, if I can help it!

[barbtries]

2. i'm with you.

i think the republicans have burned their bridges with too many people who vote. i know i'm an optimist, but no way can i envision a republican beating Obama. i know the electorate is full of stupid people who vote against their own interests, but still, after wisconsin, michigan, florida, ohio and who knows where else, some of those people will get a clue by the next election. it has just been made far too clear that the republicans do NOT give a flying fuck about the people. they will lose.

they will lose in NC too i predict.

[FarLeftFist]

5. Yeah, with the convention in Charlotte the D's will probably win NC. I think they'll take em all exc

except Iowa.

[barbtries]

8. maybe even Iowa

they've had that ridiculous dog and pony show going on so long there.

[FarLeftFist]

13. True, they're probably already sick of the BS and complete LACK of solutions/ideas from the GOP

[quinnox]

3. Are you assuming Obama wins Florida?

Just curious, because you aren't saying what states you think Obama will win.

[FarLeftFist]

4. The fact that non-incumbents are polling below the President is a bad sign for them as well.

Last edited Mon Jan 2, 2012, 04:00 PM - Edit history (1)

You would think by the way some media portrays it that the country is yearning for a new president, but that isn't so AT ALL. The country already realizes that Obama will most likely have another term which is why no one even gives a shit about the GOP anymore. No one except Hannity seems to even care about the GOP. I have never seen a sane person fired up about the GOP and excited. Meanwhile Obama is STILL beating them all in the polls and has a 50% approval rating.

[tritsofme]

15. Your glasses have quite the rose colored tint.

President Obama could very well lose reelection.

Some of your claims here just aren't accurate. The president hasn't registered a 50% approval rating in any major poll since June, in the wake of his fleeting Bin Laden bump.

Polls have shown a generic Republican besting Obama, and the difference between Obama and Romney has typically been statistical noise.

There is nothing wrong with optimism, however I feel this going to be a very difficult and hard-fought election.

[surfdog]

17. My claims are 100% accurate

It's simple math he loses all those states he still has enough electoral votes to win

To tell me my claims aren't accurate shows how ignorant you are of the issue this is simple math.

[tritsofme]

18. I wasn't replying to you in this post.

See my #16.

[surfdog]

22. Sorry , my bad

[FarLeftFist]

19. He just recently was at 50% in December. And the polls show him beating all GOP candidates.

Tied with Romney, but that is weak. If the country was really craving someone new shouldn't a GOP contender have a HUGE lead?

[tritsofme]

20. He has seen an uptick in many polls in December

but not above 50% since June, at least according to this aggregate:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_obama_job_approval-1044.html#polls


I think Obama is likely still the favorite against a historically weak GOP field, but his numbers are in a very dangerous zone for an incumbent in a reelection year.

[getdown]

6. Obama could win

and still lose

[WI_DEM]

7. I think PA is a must win, yes, because almost every scenerio the Obama camp has

is winning the "Kerry States" which include PA, and then you can put together several scenerios on how he can get to 270. My guess is that Pennsylvania will be the most heavily contested state this fall.

[WI_DEM]

10. I guess my point is if the GOP does win PA

then it would mean they have a very serious chance of actually winning the election, and I honestly don't think they do.

[surfdog]

11. You missed the point of my post

Obama could lose Florida and Pennsylvania and still win the White House

when you say Pennsylvania is a must win , it's simply not accurate

[totodeinhere]

12. Of course he could lose Florida and Pennsylvania and still win the election.

But wouldn't you prefer that he win those two states just in case he needs them? I don't understand your point.

[surfdog]

14. My point is

That Florida and Pennsylvania are not must win states, he can lose both and still win the election if he holds the rest of the states that are blue

[tritsofme]

16. Sure, theoretically this is all true.

However presidential elections do not take place in a bubble.

If Obama were to lose PA and FL, it is very unlikely that he would also be able to prevail in states like OH, VA, NC, CO et al that are generally more favorable to Republicans.

PA is generally a D+3 or so type of state, I think it could serve as a very good barometer for the election. If Obama can't win here, he probably won't be doing very well everywhere else.

[tblue]

9. Yeah, you are missing one thing.

That well-oiled election-stealing machine that never went away.

I believe Obama will still win. But when you hear people like Tweety saying Obama needs this or that state to win, keep in mind that it's not who votes, it's who counts the votes and how the votes are counted. The recent installation of Repub governors in swing states didn't happen just to bust up unions.

One thing about the GOP: They play to win. They don't care what's fair or right because "the greater good"--even if that just means their megalomanical power--trumps all.

[spanone]

21. if the msm doesn't conjure up a 'race', their phony baloney jobs go out the window

[ddeclue]

23. and he WILL lose if the GOP picks Romney.. that is all.

[Prophet 451]

24. Voting machines

I'm not saying Obama will lose but I am saying that the progressive side needs to watch out for voter purges, caging lists and unverifiable voting machines.