Bad News: Trump's support is rising

[Doodley]

49% approval among registered voters in new Reuters/Ipsos poll

https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/news-polls/reuters-ipsos-data-core-political-2018-05-04

[Thekaspervote]

1. I don't buy that for a minute!

[Doodley]

3. I fear he has now been normalized and accepted, despite being the most racist, dishonest and

incompetent president in living history.

[Kirk Lover]

21. I'm not worried because most folks don't even know what the heck is going on.

I'll quiz people at work...most of them have NO IDEA what is going on with ANYTHING.
Just wait till the real shit hits the fan....this guy is done.

[RKP5637]

38. The typical American is ever so clueless and lives in the land of Idiocracy. n/t

[Initech]

40. His base is racist, dishonest, and incompetent.

So naturally they want one of their own to lead the country, and that's why Orange Douche is so careful about not pissing them off, because if you get on their bad side, you're on their list for life.

[kentuck]

2. But what will it be after the facts come out?

Democrats would be foolish to try and run against a 3.9% unemployment rate, right?

Or should they turn the tables and campaign against their perceived strengths?

[Doodley]

8. They should tell the truth, that everything that Trump has done for the economy is

putting us in danger, that the deficit will be a trillion dollars next year to pay for billionaire tax breaks, that deficits are forecast to rise to 2,4 trillion, that trade wars are a disaster for the economy, that 3.9% unemployment is following the same trend we were on before Trump, that Trump is among the worst businessmen in American history, lying about his wealth to borrow money that he handled incompetently, costing bankers, investors, and tax payers billions.

[Poiuyt]

47. No, campaigning against trump will not be effective

It's going to be necessary to let people know what the Democratic message is. Let people know what we stand for and why it's in their benefit to vote for the Democratic candidate.

BTW, the two methods are not mutually exclusive, but we must let the voters know what's in it for them-- why will they be better off with Democrats in power. We must be able to articulate that.

[Takket]

4. The authors say at the beginning that

The numbers don’t make sense. Basically telling us to take them with a grain of salt pending future polls.

“This week’s Reuters/Ipsos Core Political release presents something of an outlier of our trend. Every series of polls has the occasional outlier and in our opinion this is one. So, while we are reporting the findings in the interest of transparency, we will not be announcing the start of a new trend until we have more data to validate this pattern. “

[Doodley]

9. I agree, but we should be alarmed at the trend of polls moving upward for him.

[Loki Liesmith]

35. Average numbers have been static for months

Trump stuck between 39 and 42

[Dawson Leery]

20. Last week he was down by 13. Now he is tied?

That is a massive jump for a week.

[struggle4progress]

23. +

[Loki Liesmith]

36. Correct

But people will panic here. It’s what they do.

[bearsfootball516]

5. Not a huge surprise.

Economy is chugging along, unemployment is low. And for the most part, he hasn't made any particularly incendiary comments lately.

[Aristus]

6. To quote President Andrew Shepard from 'The American President':

"His support has nowhere to go but up!"

[Wellstone ruled]

7. Okay,once again I was polled

by this outfit. As usual,I asked a couple of questions as to their methodology. Answer,they were using both Phone(cell and land line)as well as Internet. Internet disqualifies it for me.

[dalton99a]

11. +1

[Wellstone ruled]

13. Once one has worked the Polling Boiler Rooms,

you learn the tricks. You get what your customer pays for.

[DFW]

10. Try holding an election with only paper ballots, honest counting and no voter suppression

(I say "try" because it hasn't been done nationwide in twenty years)

Watch the 49% melt like the wicked witch of the West.

[Brother Buzz]

12. I understand this new Reuters/Ipsos poll was conducted in....RNC headquarters

I'm just saying.

[smirkymonkey]

14. Not buying it.

[Eugene]

15. Ipsos themselves call this poll an outlier.

[mucifer]

16. I can see it happening with the jobs report and Korea in the news. Once the economy

tanks it should change.

[Dawson Leery]

17. The internals of this poll are inncorrect.

For the survey, a sample of 1,548 Americans, including 556 Democrats, 579 Republicans, 163 Independents

Self Identified Democrats have an advantage of 7 point lead over the GOP.

Also, Independents are highly underrepresented in this poll.

No wonder he is at 48% in this sample.

[former9thward]

24. Pollsters go by registered voters to get their sample numbers.

When elections get closer they go by "likely voters". They never go by "Self identified" voters which is a murky ever changing concept.

[pnwmom]

34. This poll doesn't use a representative sample of anything. It's online and self selected.

From the link that can be found on Reuters own results page:

https://www.aapor.org/Publications-Media/Press-Releases/Archived-Press-Releases/Understanding-a-credibility-interval”-and-how-it-d.aspx

The statistical basis for a poll to have a margin of sampling error is that it must be based on a probability sample, where everyone in the population to be surveyed has a chance of being selected and the respondents are selected randomly. Surveys based on self-selected volunteers such as opt-in online polls do not have such a ‘grounded statistical tie’ to the population. As a result, estimates from self-selected volunteers are subject to unknown error that cannot be measured.

A credibility interval can be developed to measure the theoretical accuracy of nonprobability surveys. The credibility interval relies on assumptions that may be difficult to validate, and the results may be sensitive to these assumptions. So while the adoption of the credibility interval may be appropriate for nonprobability samples such as opt-in online polls, the underlying biases associated with such polls remain a concern.

Consequently, AAPOR urges caution when using credibility intervals or otherwise interpreting results from electoral polls using non-probability online panels. The Association continues to recommend the use of probability based polling to measure the opinions of the general public.

[former9thward]

43. Why was this complaint not made when Trump's numbers were much lower?

[pnwmom]

45. I usually point out when people post unreliable polls, regardless

of whether I like the results or not.

[pnwmom]

37. Right. Because it's an online, self-selected poll -- not a poll based on a representative sample. n/

[bitterross]

18. To be expected.

Remember, even Roy Moore had increased support near the end of the campaign. It's a natural thing for people to rally to support a person who is being attacked. He deserves to be attacked but it still happens.

[IluvPitties]

19. Good job numbers and NK are helping him.

He is being seen as chaotic but successful.

[a kennedy]

22. I see at 538 his approval is rising as well......

http://fivethirtyeight.com.

[Doodley]

25. What this shows is that Trump is getting away with his lies and incompetence with no

effectual opposition.

[elocs]

29. 538 has its average at 42.1%, up from 40.1% on 26 March. Theirs usually doesn't show big jumps

up or down.

[Loki Liesmith]

33. Not much

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_trump_job_approval-6179.html

[VOX]

26. 45 will be gloat-tweeting about this poll before the sun rises again.

You can count on it.

[riverbendviewgal]

27. I do not believe it

Lies, lies, lies.

[Ilsa]

28. I bet the question goes like,

"If you exclude the news stories about paying a porn star and the Mueller investigation and his rambling mouth, how do you feel about trump?"

[Kablooie]

30. fivethirtyeight.com also shows a rise in support.

I'd be wary of getting too cocky and assuming attitudes will be the same in November as they have been.

Once Trump goes to N Korea, no matter what the real result, it will boost his and Republican's popularity and they will surely push it as a major triumph.
It's possible that there will be enough of a change in attitudes to keep Congress firmly under the butts of the Republicans.

Mueller might or might not bring out charges by then. No one knows.
But even if the charges come out are horrible there's no guarantee the Republicans will stop defending Trump particularly if they can spin things to make it seem like he's been tremendously effective.

He still could shoot someone on 5th avenue and if his fortunes are tied up with the Republican party they would defend him nearly to the death, morals and justice be damned.

So don't assume anything.

[Loki Liesmith]

31. Incorrect

Just a bad sample. It happens.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_trump_job_approval-6179.html

[pnwmom]

32. Why do DUers keep posting this self-selected, non-scientific poll?

It doesn't use a random sample of Americans or of voters. It's not a poll with a certain "margin of error."

It's just a lot of people who answered an online poll. From a link on the Reuters site:

https://www.aapor.org/Publications-Media/Press-Releases/Archived-Press-Releases/Understanding-a-credibility-interval”-and-how-it-d.aspx

The statistical basis for a poll to have a margin of sampling error is that it must be based on a probability sample, where everyone in the population to be surveyed has a chance of being selected and the respondents are selected randomly. Surveys based on self-selected volunteers such as opt-in online polls do not have such a ‘grounded statistical tie’ to the population. As a result, estimates from self-selected volunteers are subject to unknown error that cannot be measured.

A credibility interval can be developed to measure the theoretical accuracy of nonprobability surveys. The credibility interval relies on assumptions that may be difficult to validate, and the results may be sensitive to these assumptions. So while the adoption of the credibility interval may be appropriate for nonprobability samples such as opt-in online polls, the underlying biases associated with such polls remain a concern.

Consequently, AAPOR urges caution when using credibility intervals or otherwise interpreting results from electoral polls using non-probability online panels. The Association continues to recommend the use of probability based polling to measure the opinions of the general public.

[Kaleva]

39. We aren't allowed to openly say why certain DUers post such stuff.

[uponit7771]

48. *** DING DING DING !!! ***

[elleng]

41. These things rise and fall, always do.

Foolish to spend time on them; rather, come up with strategies and tactics.

[mountain grammy]

42. 30 tp 35 percent are always crazy

Joe McCarthy’s approval rating was 34% whe he went down. The rest will be the end of us.

[Hoyt]

44. Face facts, this country has a lot of vile white wingers.

[Raine]

46. Not so surprising

people tend to be supportive and protective of someone they feel is being picked on (whether or not the person deserves it).