The next House special election Republicans are terrified they might lose
With the specters of Pennsylvania and Arizona and Alabama haunting their dreams, Republicans have a new special election to worry about: Ohio’s 12th Congressional District.
Rep. Pat Tiberi announced last year that he would step down early from this district, which covers the areas north and east of Columbus. But Republicans are locked in a bitter primary over who should bear the party’s standard to replace Tiberi, with establishment Republicans entrenched on one side and the archconservative House Freedom Caucus on the other.
Whoever emerges in the May 8 primary is likely looking at a more difficult race than one might otherwise expect in this district, which Tiberi had held since 2002 and carried with two-thirds of the vote in 2016. The Cook Political Report places the district as R+7 and rates the race as a toss-up.
Republicans in the state say that already shaky outlook could darken even more if conservative insurgent Melanie Leneghan prevails over Tiberi’s chosen successor, state Sen. Troy Balderson, in the primary on Tuesday. I asked an Ohio Republican with ties to the state GOP establishment to rate, on a scale of 1 to 10, how worried the GOP should be.
“Depends on who we nominate — 10 if it’s the wrong candidate, 7 if it’s one of the good ones,” this person told me. “Either way, the Democrats are coming, and this is a seat they can flip.”
The Ohio 12th is not quite the same as the Pennsylvania 18th — this is not an area with a working-class Democratic history that has only recently turned red. It has had a Republican representative, with a brief two-year exception, since 1939.
But this is also a well-educated and suburban constituency, the kind that might be blanching at President Trump and the sort of voters who would be crucial to Democratic dreams of retaking the House. We have mounting evidence that Democrats can compete in redder districts than previously thought possible. The Ohio 12th special election on August 7 will be the next test.
https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/5/4/17312732/ohio-12-special-election-melanie-leneghan-troy-balderson
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