National Dems Jump Into California House Primary To Avoid Disaster

[DonViejo]

By Cameron Joseph | May 8, 2018 11:29 am

National Democrats are jumping into a hotly contested House primary in California, trying to avoid the disastrous situation of being left without a candidate in the general election in a Democratic-leaning district.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) has launched ads against a pair of Republicans running for retiring Rep. Ed Royce’s (R-CA) district, hammering local Republican lawmaker Shawn Nelson’s “hypocrisy” for taking a government pension after promising not to and slamming former California state Sen. Bob Huff (R) for backing “billions in higher sales taxes.” The organization is spending $300,000 on cable, radio and digital ads.

The goal: To knock them both down so that only one Republican emerges in the race and Democrats don’t get locked out in a crucial pickup opportunity in their battle for House control.

California’s unusual all-party “jungle primary” means the top two candidates in the June primary election advance to the general election, regardless of party. In the past, that’s allowed two Republicans to advance in two competitive districts while a crowded Democratic field divides voters between several candidates — something Democrats are seriously concerned may happen again.

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https://talkingpointsmemo.com/dc/national-dems-jump-into-california-house-primary

[Eliot Rosewater]

1. Open primaries are the idea of GOP and putin. Well, GOP for sure.

And they can NEVER help Democrats.

[Wwcd]

8. Open Primaries are the stupidest method of electing Dem candidates.

It opens the door wide for any usurpers with an agenda that undermines the Democratic Party pricess.
Open primaries need to end.

Democrats elect Democrats with a proven record of supporting Democratic policies.

The rest of the but..but..but..arguments for open primaries are bull shit.

It is the most perfect way to destroy the Dem Party of all People.

This country cannot take another Tea Fking Party Revolution, leaving the citizens fractured into fringe groups.
With that stupid ideology, it simply leaves the Fascist GOP in power forever.

Open Primaries are the fastest way to kill our free society.

We have maybe one more election cycle to fking close the Dem primaries to committed Dem candidates truly in it for the long haul.

No grifters & no more usurpers in it for "Money & Media" & RW moles.

[Jim Lane]

19. The open primary and the jungle (or "top-two") primary are completely different concepts. (n/t)

[LonePirate]

2. National Dems would be better off encouraging all but 1-2 Dems to quit the race.

[awesomerwb1]

6. I agree

And hopefully common sense will prevail and the Dems running will drop out, put ego aside and support the stronger candidate.

Won't be holding my breath.

[unblock]

7. the better strategy would be to pick one of the republicans.

don't bash them both, just bash one of them. it's the even split we're trying to avoid.

if we pick one of them, hopefully one republican goes up and the other republican goes down, enough to that a democrat can come in second. hammering both republican means spending money to drive votes from the top republican to the second republican, which is counter-productive.

we only need *one* republican to fail to be in the top 2.

if the general election is one republican vs. one democrat, the democrat will win.

[MineralMan]

3. All in all, California's "jungle" primaries have benefited the

Democratic Party more than the Republican Party. Occasionally, the reverse occurs, but mostly not.

One hopes the current plans will help prevent a Republican dominated general election in those districts. As someone pointed out, cutting down the list of Democrats in the primary would help, too.

[Caliman73]

4. That is true.

The problem isn't the primary system. The problem is that there are likely too many Democratic candidates for the seat.

[MineralMan]

9. That can be a problem in any primary election.

It can, and often does, lead to a weak general election candidate. One of the ways the Minnesota DFL Party works to prevent that is through its endorsement process, which takes place before the primary elections. In most cases, the party-endorsed candidate wins. However, from time to time, that process fails to endorse anyone, since endorsement requires a 60% vote at the endorsing convention.

That can lead to interesting results in the Primary.

The bar is very low for filing to run in even a Congressional race in most states. That often leads people who have no chance to win in the primary to file and run. It's part of our election process, though, that shouldn't be changed, I believe. Anyone who wants to run should be able to run, and then campaign on the merit of their positions.

In California, there are a few congressional districts that are traditionally Republican. That's what's happening here. We might win them, but only with a strong Democratic candidate on the general election ballot. That's where the "jungle" primary concept breaks down, if too many Democrats try to run.

[Caliman73]

13. Yes it can. Too many candidates dilute the process.

As you said, it is not something that we want to discourage. Anyone who wants to make a change should be allowed to run. However, too many candidates, especially in open primaries and in districts where there is a history of Republican lean are going to be problematic for Democrats.

[bearsfootball516]

5. I chucked after I read Eliot's response and then immediately read yours.

Talk about polar opposites.

[Eliot Rosewater]

10. I dont agree, the state is SO blue there is no way they help the D party.

[MineralMan]

11. In most districts, it results in two Democrats on the general election ballot.

In a few districts, it can result in two Republicans on that ballot. That can hurt attempts to flip a Republican district, for sure. There aren't too many of those left, though. I'm especially interested in the district represented by Devin Nunes. We definitely need a strong Democrat on the GE ballot in that district. It's a prime district for a flip in 2018.

[grantcart]

15. You are overlooking two important benefits that this system has in a deep blue state

1) It eliminates damaging revelations from an "October Surprise" that could eliminate the Democratic Candidate and give the seat to the Republican. Just look at yesterday's resignation by the NY AG to see what I mean or to the trumped up faux 'scandal' with Senator Frankin.

In CA with 2 Democrats running a last minute scandal or fake news will keep the seat in Democratic hands.

2) Running and losing has real benefits. Even if you lose it helps the Republicans. It helps with building name familiarity, building a donor network, trying out different messaging. Someone who has never run for a state wide office will have difficulty the first time. In this election no Republicans expected to make it on the ballot for any state wide position.

That means that in the next election it will include Democrats that are experienced versus Republicans without any state wide experience. Even at the lower levels it is useful. City Councilmen and women eventually run for Congress and so on, if they don't get running at the lower positions it has an accumulative effect.

And there is a third. Because it robs Republican candidates of any realistic hope in the long term of getting to a state wide office it serves as a disincentive for possible candidates to even make the attempt. Smart professionals thinking about it will see the benefits don't match the cost.

The 'jungle' primary is a great benefit to Democrats in California and it is having a long term debilitating effect on the Republican Party.

[Retrograde]

16. So why in 2016

were the two final candidates for US senator, Harris and Sanchez, both Democrats?

[Eliot Rosewater]

17. Meaningless, GOP cant win, wont if there is ONE democrat is in the race, but if there are too many

the opposite happens.

It is happening NOW

[rufus dog]

20. Ed Royce won this district by 15 points, tRump won by eight

Last edited Wed May 9, 2018, 01:37 AM - Edit history (1)

Of all the districts in the OC this is the least likely pick up. The demographics of the district are different from the flips we have seen in special elections. District 45 had tRump winning by five and is set up as a much more favorable pick up. tRump won by two in the 48th and the Russian tool Rohrbacher is running, as of now, much better chance at a pick up. Issa barely won the 49th, tRump won by eight. Issa going into hiding, a tough pick up, but still better chance than the 39th.

Each of the other districts have favorable demographics, so while you may not agree, you have to look at facts. Dems are NOT going to win every district in CA and although there are flaws there are some positives as pointed out by other posters. We may have a GE with NO REPUBLICAN on the ballot for Governor and Senator. So if there are no Repukes battling for the marquee spots how do you think that will impact other races?

[gratuitous]

12. I disagree

Let's say there's a 30-30-40 split among Democrats, Republicans, and Independents in a district. When the Republicans run two candidates in the primary, they generally split the Republican vote, pick up some "independent" votes (former Republicans who are ashamed to identify themselves as Republicans, but still vote Republican), and a handful of Democratic strays. So each Republican candidate garners about 22%-25% of the total votes cast.

The Democrats run five candidates for the same seat. They divvy up the Democratic and Independent votes, and a handful of stray Republicans. That's five candidates vying for 50-55% of all the votes cast. In order for a Democrat to overtake the Republican candidate with the second highest vote total, one candidate has to take about half of all the votes. If there's a candidate that head-and-shoulders above the competition, there wouldn't be five Democrats running for the seat. Even vanity candidates will bleed off a crucial 3-5% of the vote, making it that much less likely any one Democrat will overtake the second-place Republican. So even though Democrats received 53-57% of the total primary ballots, the Republicans get both slots on the general election ballot.

It's a ridiculously stupid system anytime Democrats have three or four viable candidates for a seat.

[msongs]

14. closed primaries benefit democrats 100% of the time nt

[Eliot Rosewater]

18. 100%