General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsI have question about Friday's unemployment number.
I don't expect great news, but realistically what is a good number? what is a diasater? Also, I'd be curious how many jobs it would take to shift the percent of unemployment .1 either way?
SoutherDem
(2,307 posts)Last month it reduced the number by 800,000 jobs, but many questioned if the normal adjustment should have been used.
Motown_Johnny
(22,308 posts)Sorry for the Huffpo link
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/07/06/june-jobs-report-unemployment-rate_n_1653579.html
^snip^
June Jobs Report: U.S. Adds 80,000 Jobs; Unemployment Rate Unchanged
WASHINGTON -- The American job machine has jammed. Again.
The economy added only 80,000 jobs in June, the government said Friday, erasing any doubt that the United States is in a summer slump for the third year in a row.
"Let's just agree: This number stinks," said Dan Greenhaus, chief global strategist at the investment firm BTIG.
It was the third consecutive month of weak job growth. From April through June, the economy produced an average of just 75,000 jobs a month, the weakest three months since August through October 2010.
SoutherDem
(2,307 posts)I will try to find the link to post but before the seasonal adjustment I think the number was 800,000. As I understand, because of a normal uptick in summer hiring for recreational reasons. Some feel that adjustment was incorrect because the general economy is not allowing the seasonal hiring trends normally seen. I will edit if I find the link.
Motown_Johnny
(22,308 posts)I'm no expert so I am just going to punt on this one.
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/02/03/obamas-magic-number-150000-jobs-per-month/
^snip^
February 3, 2012, 6:51 AM 74 Comments
Obamas Magic Number? 150,000 Jobs Per Month
By NATE SILVER
The unemployment report on Friday will give us the most tangible read to date on how the economy is performing in 2012. It might also represent the most important number yet for President Obamas prospects of winning re-election.
Heres a spoiler: reports that say more than 150,000 jobs have been created can generally be interpreted as good news for Mr. Obama. Reports that come in at under 150,000 jobs could put him on a trajectory toward defeat.
However, the matter is worth examining in more depth.
No economic indicator is the holy grail. The American economy is a hard thing to measure, and initial estimates of economic performance are subject to significant revisions. Different aspects of the economy affect different people in different ways (the political science literature on exactly how economic performance affects voter behavior comes to some diverse conclusions). And there are a number of non-economic variables pertinent to predicting presidential elections wars, candidate quality and ideology, turnout, scandals and so forth.