Behind the Scenes in the Korea Situation

[MineralMan]

China has the most influence of any nation on Kim Jong Un and North Korea's policies. Without China, that embattled country would simply dry up and blow away.

So, right now, keep an eye on U.S. policies with regard to China. There is a quid pro quo thing going on there. Trump desperately needs a success right now, and he has chosen North Korea to provide it. China understands his need, and is quietly offering assistance in making that success possible.

However, their assistance does not come without a price that must be paid. We recently heard about Trump easing off on sanctions against a big telecom company in China. That company does business with North Korea. So, China tells Trump, "Say, if you tread more lightly on one of our big companies, we might be more inclined to help you with your North Korean problem."

It's almost a month until the big meeting in Singapore. Watch the news for the US to get all friendly with Chinese interests in the time remaining.

Oh, and Russia. Russia, too, has interests and influence in North Korea. They may have some requests for Trump, too. Watch for them.

[B2G]

1. What would the US lose by easing the sanctions?

If China can pressure NK to come to the table and shut down their nuke program, isn't that a good thing? Nothing will work without China's involvement.

[MineralMan]

2. There are security issues with technology being sold to that company.

However, that's not really the issue of most concern. Trump seems ready to believe anything Kim and China tell him. He's so eager to "win" in the North Korea things that he's likely to lose by wrongly trusting Kim Jong Un. Through his naivete and unwillingness to actually try to understand things, he's very likely to buy a "pig in a poke," as it were, and sign up for a deal that is not at all what he thinks it is.

North Korea's sudden switch to "good will" is highly suspect. That has not been its historical position at all with regard to South Korea or the United States. I doubt very much that it is a legitimate change of direction. Trump, on the other hand, sees only an opportunity to appear to have done something worthwhile.

China, of course, is looking to benefit from all of this, as always.

Trump is barging ahead, with blinders on, ignoring everything but his own immediate goals.

Much could go wrong with that approach.

[B2G]

4. There's nothing suspect about it.

They blew up their own nuke program last year. Kim will never admit that, and I think the US is taking advantage of that. China knows it as well. I think they're actually pretty pissed off about it.

NK has no leverage now. But we need China involved and behind whatever deal that comes out of this. You don't get something for nothing and if easing of sanctions against a telecom company is what it takes to get Kim to come to his fucking senses and realize he has no other choice but to get in line, I see that as a small price to pay.

I can't stand Trump, but peace on the Korean peninsula is a good thing. My nephew is being deployed there in August.

[MineralMan]

5. Actually, you are incorrect. Also naive, perhaps.

You are assuming that North Korea and China are sincere in their actions. I do not. I'm suspicious of them, based on past performance. About Trump, my suspicions yield way to actual alarm.

As for the telecom company, there is another post on that, below. I suggest you read it.

As for your nephew, I hope he stays safe during his deployment.

[B2G]

8. You say I'm incorrect and naive, then go on to

state your opinion.

You are certainly entitled to it, as am I.

Do you not think that NK has destroyed their own Nuke program? And knows they have no leverage now?

[MineralMan]

11. So, you're willing to put your trust in Trump, Kim and China?

Really?

[B2G]

13. I would classify it as cautious optimism.

Not very long ago everyone was freaking out about a nuclear war with NK. Now, at least on the surface, it appears that NK has backed down from that significantly. I view that as a good thing.

And nothing will have an even remote shot at succeeding without China's involvement. We will need to see how this develops but I'd say we're in a better spot than we were 6 months ago. Let's see how the talks go next month. There are still a ton of details we don't know.

[MineralMan]

18. Without skepticism, we risk destruction.

Looking at things hopefully is not as useful as looking at them analytically.

[maxrandb]

7. It depends on what "Peace" looks like

Will China accept a unified US/Japan ally on their border?

Is Kim Jung Un going to just walk away from power?

Would a unified Korea be more aligned, North and South with China than they are with the US.

Does Korea just become an extension of China?

Donnie Shit for Brains doesn't know or care about any of that.

[ollie10]

12. Likely, Kim is trying to play Donnie Boy

Does anyone really think Kim is going to destroy his nuclear program with nothing in return?

Of course not!

The price is going to be high and we won't go along with paying that price. What's he going to demand? US pull out all troops from South Korea? What?

Trump will come back empty handed and Kim will find a way to get Trump to look bad.

[B2G]

14. Again, NK destroyed their own program.

Why do you think they've done a 180 in the past several months. The US knows that, China knows that and Kim knows that.

He doesn't have many bargaining chips left.

[ollie10]

15. They haven't DONE anything.....

Talk is cheap.

[B2G]

16. Google North Korea explosion. nt

[ollie10]

17. you said nk has destroyed their entire program.....

your google pointed to a test site being damaged.


Which is a far cry from the entire program being destroyed.

[B2G]

21. Their main test site.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/apr/26/north-korea-nuclear-test-site-collapse-may-be-out-of-action-china

[EX500rider]

25. It's not that hard to re-purpose a old mine for another test site of they want.

It's basically just a hole in the ground where you set off a nuke.

[maxrandb]

26. Since his last test was so powerful that it collapsed a mountain and caused earthquakes in China

I'm betting China told him to knock it the fuck off.

But, I guess another thing we have told the world is; "if you want the United States to treat you with respect and potentially give you shit tons of money, just build and test a couple nuclear bombs".

Oh, we also told the world, we don't give a shit about honoring agreements, we can just do whatever the fuck we want every 4-8 years. Good Luck.

Fuck, if Donnie Shit for Brains and the ReTrumplicans were elected in the middle of FDR's 3RD Term, he'd have switched alliances to the Germans.

I for one, can't wait for a time when Donnie Short Fingers voters are so ashamed they won't show their pasty white faces in public.

[ollie10]

3. Well, there's this.....

The CIA has long believed that ZTE telecommunications equipment comes equipped with hardware and software to spy on its users and report back to China. For this reason, cybersecurity experts have argued that ZTE products should be permanently banned from the U.S. If Trump now relaxes the sanctions, the Chinese will presumably once again be able to spy on Americans

http://electoral-vote.com/

[B2G]

6. Isn't the ban under discussion related to US exports to ZTE?

I haven't heard anything about changing the ban on their use within the US

[mahatmakanejeeves]

10. Trump's promise to get ZTE back in business undercuts his top national security officials

Retweeted by David Fahrenthold: https://twitter.com/Fahrenthold

Trump's promise to get ZTE back in business undercuts his top national security officials who say its products could be used for cyberespionage in the U.S., @D_Hawk writes:

Link to tweet

[Hekate]

19. The Trojan Horse continues his work. When I read he wants to help ZTE, a Chinese telecom company...

...get their products into the US, my hair stood on end.

[MineralMan]

20. Yes, especially when you consider the concern of those

interested in data and personal security. We are far too accepting of things, I believe.

I've been seeing a serious amount of naivety here on DU over this North Korean thing. We like what appears to be the end result, so we ignore history in our rush to acceptance.

I find that disappointing in the extreme. Our default response to Trump and Kim should be suspicion, not acceptance of them as truthful and well-intentioned. When has either of them been either?

[Hekate]

22. "Disappointing" is putting it mildly. "Appalling" is more like it...

Both China and NK have been hacking and sending us malware for years and years. China has been graciously allowing Americans to actually pay them for this privilege by purchasing electronics from them.

Have these people been under a rock?

Oh right, if I were inclined to look up the folks most vociferously against President Obama's attempt to rein in China via the TPP, I might find a bit of an overlap.

[MineralMan]

24. Bingo!

I think you have it!

[CK_John]

23. China is in the process of testing it's first built carrier and is putting Russia on notice also.

IMO, China is trying to regain the Urals as it's proper region.

[EX500rider]

27. China has designs on Russia's far east, not the Urals...

....which are over 1500 miles from China's closest border.

[CK_John]

28. The Urals was the Asia/Europe and China wants the Siberia