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babylonsister

(171,054 posts)
Thu May 31, 2018, 10:21 AM May 2018

Trump slaps steel, aluminum tariffs on EU, Canada and Mexico


Trump slaps steel, aluminum tariffs on EU, Canada and Mexico
By Vicki Needham - 05/31/18 09:50 AM EDT


The Trump administration will levy hefty steel and aluminum tariffs on the European Union, Canada and Mexico starting on Friday, a move likely to lead to retaliation and risk the future of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA).

Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross on Thursday said President Trump has decided to end the temporary exemptions for the three key trading allies despite their two months of lobbying to avoid the tariffs.

“We look forward to continued negotiations with Canada and Mexico on one hand and with the European Commission on the other hand as there are other issues we need to get resolved,” Ross told reporters on a conference call.

Ross said the White House would need to see the reactions of Canada, Mexico and the 28-nation European bloc before determining what to do next.

But he said that U.S. officials are "quite willing and eager" to have further discussions with all of the parties.

The trading partners have all warned the U.S. that they will impose retaliatory tariffs on U.S. exports if the U.S. goes through with the steel and aluminum tariffs.

more...

http://thehill.com/policy/finance/390036-trump-slaps-steel-aluminum-tariffs-on-eu-canada-and-mexico
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Trump slaps steel, aluminum tariffs on EU, Canada and Mexico (Original Post) babylonsister May 2018 OP
Does he lie awake nights trying to think of new ways to fuck up the world? The Velveteen Ocelot May 2018 #1
American Unions are happy, I am certain! quartz007 May 2018 #2
If only it were so. Xipe Totec May 2018 #5
Harley's biggest customer base is in USA quartz007 May 2018 #13
Ooooh so many zeros. I'm scared! Xipe Totec May 2018 #15
Zeroes are the problem! quartz007 May 2018 #16
Actually, factories in the U.S. have been on the increase for the past 6 to 7 years. haele May 2018 #17
Who owns national deft is not the issue quartz007 Jun 2018 #19
Sigh - I work with custom engineered products all the time - MilSpec components. haele Jun 2018 #20
Good analysis on many points quartz007 Jun 2018 #21
I assume you're being sarcastic. The Velveteen Ocelot May 2018 #6
Frankly I am conflicted on tariffs. quartz007 May 2018 #12
Why can't we just chip in on a really good Lego set? Orsino May 2018 #3
Why do republicans HATE America's allies? Achilleaze May 2018 #4
Does he have any idea what he's doing?? C_U_L8R May 2018 #7
The problem is that his economic advisors are just as stupid. The Velveteen Ocelot May 2018 #8
As the former head of the Bank of Cyprus C_U_L8R May 2018 #9
Yeah, he's a crook as well as stupid. The Velveteen Ocelot May 2018 #10
No, not a clue imo. nt babylonsister May 2018 #14
He is going to completely tank our economy. smirkymonkey May 2018 #11
The retaliations have already begun. Totally Tunsie May 2018 #18
The effects of this won't be felt right away. Xolodno Jun 2018 #22

The Velveteen Ocelot

(115,661 posts)
1. Does he lie awake nights trying to think of new ways to fuck up the world?
Thu May 31, 2018, 10:25 AM
May 2018

Let's watch the stock market this morning. It's already down almost 200.

Xipe Totec

(43,889 posts)
5. If only it were so.
Thu May 31, 2018, 10:33 AM
May 2018

Jobs that use steel and aluminum as feed stock will suffer. Manufacturers (Like Harley) Will move offshore.

 

quartz007

(1,216 posts)
13. Harley's biggest customer base is in USA
Thu May 31, 2018, 10:50 AM
May 2018

Harley, Honda, Toyota, BMW etc are all setting up assembly plants near where the markets are. That saves shipping and import taxes.

Are you OK with $800,000,000,000 trade deficits every year?
If not what is your solution?

 

quartz007

(1,216 posts)
16. Zeroes are the problem!
Thu May 31, 2018, 04:58 PM
May 2018

Most people have no clue how big the annual trade deficit is.
That $800 Billion every fricking year! How many factories and infrastructure can be built in USA if that money stayed here?? Just think Ford built a huge auto factory in Mexico for $3 Billion!

Yeah, many under-educated people have no clue how big our national debt is either. It is $20,000,000,000,000.00 and growing by $500,000,000,000.00 every year.

haele

(12,646 posts)
17. Actually, factories in the U.S. have been on the increase for the past 6 to 7 years.
Thu May 31, 2018, 06:08 PM
May 2018

However, there are fewer jobs to be had at these factories, as
1. They've been mostly assembly plants for NAFTA markets with overseas supply chains (there's a good part of your increased trade deficit) instead of base component manufacturing, and
2. They're increasingly technical, which requires far fewer workers - as in, what used to require a shift of 20 workers now needs a shift of 4.

Another issue is tooling factories for the required work. If you're going to build a base component manufacturing plant, you need enough serious investment to pretty much build your facilities from the ground up; one of the reasons that during the 1970's and 1980's, U.S. Auto Manufacturing had serious problems being able to transition from those heavy framed gas guzzlers to the lighter framed modular and fuel efficient cars that were becoming increasingly popular.
It's why once a factory is built for, say, Air Conditioners, that's all that factory will build - it won't branch out to furnaces or water heaters, even though most of the components built on the site may be the same. The tooling of the factory determines what sort of product it's going to manufacture with very few modifications.
An assembly plant doesn't typically have the same costs.

It's modern business in a global economy. Fewer costs, greater profits, greater ROI to be handed over to shareholders.
So these stakeholder communities that are hard hit.

Most of the U.S. Debt is to the government and citizens of the US (numbers are averaged, not exact)-
35% of our debt is to U.S. banks, investors, mutual, pension, and state funds, etc.. These are held by citizens or U.S. organizations that purchase U.S. Treasury bonds and securities for various reasons.
Intergovernmental debt is 30% of our debt. Government agencies will use U.S. Treasury bonds to fund projects not already allocated. This includes block grant funding for infrastructure and community projects, Medicaid, etc.

Next is China and Japan, each owning about 8 - 9% of our national debt.
Ireland and Brazil owns about 3% each.
UK and Switzerland owns about 2% each.
The tax havens of Caymen Islands, Belgium and Luxemburg own about 1 - 2% each, though it's not certain how much U.S. wealth they actually hold, as these are mostly individual and fund accounts rather than Central Bank holdings or ImEx banks.
Finally, Hong Kong, Saudi Arabia, Taiwan, India, round out with around 1% each.

And that's the U.S. debt.

And one thing I learned in Economics 233 was that deficits are transitory, not something that is writ in stone. A trade deficit can be modified, increased or erased rapidly based on all sorts of economic tools - especially currency rates and trade deals. When used properly, Tariffs are exquisitely targeted and for set situational and time periods, not to be wielded like a axe - tearing out walls and destroying furniture while trying to get at a rat in the dining room.
Hawley Smoot kept the U.S. from recovering from a recession and unexpected drought, keeping us in a depression for 8 years because some politicians ignored economists and wanted to pretend they were protecting the 'Murican Worker and bring down our National Debt.

Let me put it this way.
You go into long term debt when you buy a house or get a Student Loan. Is that a bad thing? Or is getting a mortgage a good thing?
Or would your rather continue paying rent to a management company for your household's shelter, potentially running deficits in your monthly budget as they keep raising the cost on you? Do you continue to suffer because you never invested the $40K in federally funded student loans in that education that would soon add an extra $20K a year to your family income and continue to keep you employable?

Do you get punish your kids when it becomes too expensive to feed and clothe them as they grow?
Or do you get another job, sell that third car (yes, at a loss), or start going to the thrift store instead of Nordstrom's or Saks to buy equivalent clothes at a more affordable price?


 

quartz007

(1,216 posts)
19. Who owns national deft is not the issue
Fri Jun 1, 2018, 11:54 AM
Jun 2018

in case you missed my main point. Which was that $800,000,000,000 flowing out to foreign countries EVERY FRICKING YEAR represents potential to build factories, infrastructure and create millions of MIDDLE CLASS JOBS here in United States.

I am old enough to have lived here when we had trade SURPLUS every year. And living standards were great. People could afford to buy houses and other necessities.

tRump has created many jobs but mostly in service sector which typically pays less than manufacturing jobs.

And the point which you really miss, because you have probably never worked in that field, is manufacturing of custom engineered products. Those type of jobs create maximum number of middle class jobs. Those are the type of jobs which have been exported abroad. Mass production jobs simply create more robots.

haele

(12,646 posts)
20. Sigh - I work with custom engineered products all the time - MilSpec components.
Fri Jun 1, 2018, 12:47 PM
Jun 2018

Primarily on the acquisition side, but I have to know the manufacturing side of that business, also.
And yes, I'm very aware that's one of the reasons the military budget is full of pork, because the manufacture of those components keep jobs in states.
I'm also an old fart - a systems engineer and I have a degree in Business Science - Emerging Technologies.
And one of the issues we had to grapple with when we studied national and international economies in was that we are no longer an isolated producer of goods - we have to compete or we're going to drop back into the 1880's robber baron age so fast your head will spin. Unfortunate for us as a country, we no longer have a frontier we can send the excess labor to try and build their own bootstraps on. We also don't have a thriving agricultural economy to offset the ups and downs of manufacturing. The frontier was pretty much the only thing that saved us from breaking up back then.

So unless we as a nation start taking away the power to affect manufacturing and entrepreneurship from all the fund managers and venture capital corporations that have been de-coupling labor and supply chains from our national economy, unless you start nationalizing or severely regulating banks and businesses and tax the heck out of the higher levels of capital gains and income, you're not going to get that transitional 1950's/1960's post-Keynesian union economy - that was fueled by our dominance on the International stage. Because in our economic "hay-day", when we were running surpluses, Europe was still in a recession and Asia was just becoming post-colonial the U.S. was doing great for the most part.

Tariffs and protectionist policies don't work in a global environment without also having high revenue acquired internally to help stabilize businesses in those countries. Look to Japan and most of the Northern European countries, where there are fairly stable economies. When used, tariffs are targeted; there are situational and time settings - sometimes seasonal, sometimes based on a particular surplus or deficit in a specific amount of resource or manufactured component, that will expire when that surplus or deficit is balanced.
Here's something to consider - as the U.S. and Canada did in the 1950's, China and Russia (and most of the OPEC countries) currently are subsidizing their economies to maintain a socially healthy balance of jobs and economic growth. For now, they have natural resources/commodities and trade deals with emerging nations eager for money that they are able to exploit, and are using those to pay for the service economy growth that their economic advisors understand is going to be the "job of the future" for the majority of their populations.
To have a leg up looking past 2030, it's imperative for both China and Russia to basically fuck over the stability of their primary resource and commodities competitor, the U.S.
Northern Europe and Japan are no match for them in terms of commodities and manufacturing, so those countries are not a threat.

By encouraging their agents in the media and government to pit the U.S. against trade partners, by encouraging political and social corruption amongst the U.S. business and financial interests, China and Russia are basically accomplishing the goal of knocking the U.S. off the world stage.

Trade deficits can be overcome quickly by trade deals, the ups and downs of currencies, and opening of new markets. But trade surpluses are never gained by protectionist policies, tariffs and other trade burdens. In fact, blanket protectionist based tariffs have always hobbled recovery from recessions and other minor economic downturns in various industries.
What markets will the current Trump "economic team" and GOP "Conservative" policies open U.S. manufacturing up in? North Korea's?

Manufacturing in the U.S. is being screwed by venture capitalists and shareholders, who are pushing to send labor and capital components overseas where "it's cheaper" to build and then ship back in the short term to investment profits. Vulture capitalism at it's most profitable to the few who want to be fabulously wealthy.

If we as a country were to increase revenue at the financial/investment end rather than on the production end of trade through carrot and stick incentives - as Northern Europe and Japan does, and as we did in the 1950's and 1960's - we would be able to subsidize manufacturing to keep it home and keep people employed.
But that would require a massive values change, where our own wealthy would suddenly realize that for the overall national good, it's more economically and morally imperative in the long run to invest in labor at a continued 2 - 3% growth rate rather than gamble with investment money because a fund can maintain a 5 - 7% growth rate so long as the markets can maintain inertia.

Haele




 

quartz007

(1,216 posts)
21. Good analysis on many points
Fri Jun 1, 2018, 04:41 PM
Jun 2018

and right about tariffs usually suppress economic activity.

Except, and it is a big except, no country on earth since man came down from the trees, has experienced such massive trade deficits as we are now. Therefore past history is not directly applicable.

The biggest losers in a trade war will be those with the most trade surpluses. Because all of a sudden all that manufacturing activity must shrink due to loss of competitive pricing. Vice versa the country with the biggest trade deficit will gain a lot due increased local manufacturing, albeit some dislocations in affected areas.

I rather see fair and more balanced trade than one sided trade. All those big capitalists hate this because the easy profits by shipping manufacturing to cheaper labor countries is not so profitable anymore.

The Velveteen Ocelot

(115,661 posts)
6. I assume you're being sarcastic.
Thu May 31, 2018, 10:34 AM
May 2018

Tariffs are horrible for everyone; they harm the economy and will cause job losses.

 

quartz007

(1,216 posts)
12. Frankly I am conflicted on tariffs.
Thu May 31, 2018, 10:46 AM
May 2018

Because I spent 23 years working in industry related to automotive, and have seen first hand the unfair trade practices of other countries.

OTOH I do not like government getting involved in increasing costs for consumers.

I think the jury is out on this. It might take 4-5 years to really see what can happen with tariffs.

Achilleaze

(15,543 posts)
4. Why do republicans HATE America's allies?
Thu May 31, 2018, 10:26 AM
May 2018

Is this something that the Kremlin directed republican Comrade Casino* to do? Sure stinks like it.

* aka republican Draft-Dodger-in-Chief

C_U_L8R

(44,997 posts)
7. Does he have any idea what he's doing??
Thu May 31, 2018, 10:34 AM
May 2018

It would actually be comforting to believe he's just an idiot without a fucking clue what he's doing...
over the horrifying thought that he's doing all this on purpose. What is this maniac's end game??

The Velveteen Ocelot

(115,661 posts)
8. The problem is that his economic advisors are just as stupid.
Thu May 31, 2018, 10:37 AM
May 2018

Just saw Wilbur Ross on the telly (someone dragged him out of his crypt). He doesn't seem to have any better understanding of economics than Spanky does.

C_U_L8R

(44,997 posts)
9. As the former head of the Bank of Cyprus
Thu May 31, 2018, 10:42 AM
May 2018

Wilbur Ross knows a couple things... such as the personal contacts for every Russian oligarch/gangster and... how to launder massive amounts of money. Methinks the Trumps know their days are numbered so now it's profit taking time

The Velveteen Ocelot

(115,661 posts)
10. Yeah, he's a crook as well as stupid.
Thu May 31, 2018, 10:43 AM
May 2018

I wonder if Mueller has interviewed him?

Actually, he's on my list of Evil Assholes Who Need To Be Indicted.

 

smirkymonkey

(63,221 posts)
11. He is going to completely tank our economy.
Thu May 31, 2018, 10:45 AM
May 2018

It may take a few years before the full effects of his policies begin to show, but I have no doubt this administration is going to plunge us into a deep recession, if not a depression. I almost believe that is what they want. They want people to suffer and die off.

Xolodno

(6,390 posts)
22. The effects of this won't be felt right away.
Fri Jun 1, 2018, 06:05 PM
Jun 2018

...there is never a direct immediate cause and effect. Its more like a cartoon bomb, the fuse is lighted, follows the long line, ends at the bomb....but then doesn't explode, so you go over there and pick it up and..... BOOM! It explodes.

He probably understands this and is purposely trying to trigger a recession once Democrats take the House and perhaps Senate. Thus he can blame them for ruining the economy.

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