The drama in the republican race isn't going to be in Iowa. It will be in NH.

[Renew Deal]

Iowa republicans are a mess and don't represent the party in general. Neither does the process used (caucuses). I think NH will be where the drama is. A lot will happen between today and the NH primary on January 10. The winner today will get a lot of momemtum. There are two more debates. The primary in NH is semi-open which means independents can vote.

Remember 2008. Obama was leading in the polls up until the last polls. Obama was dismissive of Hillary in a debate and Hillary cried about something. The exit polls came out with Hillary ahead and no one believed them. Then Hillary won the election and the race went on for months.

I think Romney may well do badly today. I also think he is in danger in NH for a number of reasons some of which include the erratic nature of NH primaries. If Romney loses both of those, the race still goes to SC where I don't think Romney will do well. Then there's Florida which seems like a Romney favorable state. And then Nevada which is Ron Paul land. There are more Romney favorable states after that like Maine, Colorado, Michigan, and Arizona.

The race may well be over if Romney wins NH. The map is set up in a way that it's somewhat unfavorable at the beggining and gets better. To me it seems that Michigan and Arizona on 2/28 are Romney's firewall. But if Romney gets rolled in IA, NH, SC, and NV, this may drag on for a while.

[FSogol]

1. Good analysis. We are better off the longer this drags out.

The sooner it is settled, the sooner they set their sights on Obama. They Romney spend millions in state after state fighting Santorum, Paul, and Gingrich.

[XemaSab]

2. Kerry won NH in large part because there are a lot of ex-pats from Mass there

Romney may have that going for him, or against him.

[Renew Deal]

4. He had that going for him last time and lost.

But I agree overall and I think that's the only reason he has a lead.

[onenote]

6. He lost to McCain. But there is no McCain in the race this time.

McCain and Romney split nearly 70 percent of the vote in New Hampshire in 2008. I don't see any of the other candidates in the race this time that can come close to filling McCain's shoes in terms of getting votes in New Hampshire.

[Renew Deal]

7. I agree

I have a hard time seeing which other candidate will play well in NH. Maybe Ron Paul, but there's a lot of independents voting.

[onenote]

3. I think there is little to no chance that Mitt will lose in NH

He's consistently polled in the upper 30s to low 40s. No one else in the field can barely scrape past 20. Even if Mitt finishes third in Iowa, he'll still be 35 plus in NH. And the also rans don't have enough support that, if they drop out, their votes will be enough to overcome Mitt's margin. Paul, who's been in the upper teens to 20 percent, might climb up to 25-28 with a victory in Iowa, but that's it. Santorum, who is in the single digits, might get up into the teens with a good Iowa showing, but those two will split the "not Romney" vote. Huntsman will continue to get around 10 percent. Gingrich will drop, but still be hanging around 10 percent or a bit more.

At least that's how it looks to me.

[Renew Deal]

5. I doubt anyone drops out

But what if someone does. I think there is more anti-Romney support than pro-Romney support. It's a matter of getting them to stick together.