Mark this day on your calendar.

[kentuck]

The day that CNN and FOX News had Obama up in the polls by 7 and 9 points, respectively.

I am always fascinated by the psychology of polls. Do they encourage people to go to the polls or do they discourage even more voters? If it were the latter, we could look for an Obama landslide in November. I do not believe that is going to happen. I think we are going to have a very close election.

Because, in my opinion, polls generally have an "underdog" effect on voters. If their Party is perceived as behind, then they will make an extra effort to get to the polls, just to remain within a respectable political Party. People, as a group, do not want to be perceived as "losers".

FOX News has Obama up by 9 points. Will that hold? I doubt it.

[lunatica]

1. I think low poll numbers will discourage people from voting

because what's the use? Why bother? And because there's a reason the numbers are low. The candidate isn't trusted or likeable.

On the other hand high poll numbers will make people think they don't need to make the extra effort because their candidate will win easily.

Then there's the feeling that the vote will be stolen. Does that make people make the effort to vote or simply give up in certainty that their vote means nothing?

We're a fickle bunch.

[kentuck]

2. I agree that high poll numbers can give some a false sense of security...

Especially if they are not really enthusiastic about their candidate. It could give them a reason to stay home. Yes, we are a fickle bunch.