The Atlantic's Molly Ball: Obama is ahead, but he's not winning

[Marzupialis]

Obama is ahead in the race vs. Romney; therefore Republicans should be optimistic while Democrats should be "jittery."

This nonsensical narrative is seen very often in the MSM, which benefits from pretending the race is close.

Molly can be told how stupid she is at @mollyesque in Twitter.

http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2012/08/obama-is-ahead-but-is-he-winning/260963/

[cali]

1. your link doesn't work

and Nate Silver also thinks it's close. And he's damned good.

[Marzupialis]

2. How many electoral votes does Silver give Obama?

May I know?

May I also remind you that Silver screwed up in his 2010 congressional prediction?

[unblock]

4. silver has obama as a 73.3% - 26.7% favorite. that's not close.

the margin of victory matters little compared to the probability of victory.

[Dawgs]

5. It's not close, but he did write a piece today titled, "National Polls Shouldn’t Panic Romney". n/t

[unblock]

6. true, but mostly it just expresses confusion as to what the cause of obama's surge could be.

he's not seeing that perhaps the rmoney tax issue is actually swaying people, or that the rising stock market might be having an effect.

frankly, all he's really doing is guessing that the latest numbers might be outliers. he could prove correct, but there's not much substance behind that assertion.

on the other hand, he, like most in the media, is rooting for a closer race, when polls and analyses are more valuable.

[pnwmom]

3. Well, she's certainly right about voter suppression. We SHOULD be nervous about that.

And working very hard on getting out the vote.