General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsWho got Iowa right among RealClearPolitics, Nate Silver at 538, Pollster, the DM Register, etc.?
It seems worthwhile to keep track of which pollsters and forecasters are correct and which are all washed up.
Which do you think is correct?
RCP Avg:
22.8% Romney
21.5% Paul
16.3% Santorum
13.7% Gingrich
11.5% Perry
6.8% Bachmann
2.3% Huntsman
538 Projection:
21.8% Romney
21.0% Paul
19.3% Santorum
15.1% Gingrich
10.4% Perry
7.9% Bachmann
3.8% Huntsman
Pollster Avg:
22.4% Romney
21.0% Paul
15.8% Santorum
12.6% Gingrich
11.0% Perry
8.3% Bachmann
3.7% Huntsman
DMR:
24% Romney
22% Paul
15% Santorum
12% Gingrich
11% Perry
7% Bachmann
2% Huntsman
PPP:
20% Paul
19% Romney
18% Santorum
14% Gingrich
10% Perry
8% Bachmann
4% Huntsman
NBC:
23% Romney
21% Paul
15% Santorum
14% Perry
13% Gingrich
6% Bachmann
2% Huntsman
Rasmussen:
23% Romney
22% Paul
16% Santorum
13% Perry
13% Gingrich
5% Bachmann
3% Huntsman
CNN:
25% Romney
22% Paul
16% Santorum
14% Gingrich
11% Perry
9% Bachmann
1% Huntsman
msongs
(67,199 posts)Texas Lawyer
(350 posts)It is a bullshit process, but it bears monitoring because the worst aspects of corporatist America are heavily invested in the process and so you know it is a process where your best interests are both at stake and not being looked after.
NathanTheGreat
(78 posts)Those are all pretty well within experimental error of one another.
RandySF
(57,661 posts)I saw him tweet this morning that he would be willing to bet against his own model.
Texas Lawyer
(350 posts)Santorum is on the line.
Iowa could shut up one (or maybe even two) of these jackasses tonight.
I'm eager to see which idiot gets silenced first, and given that the polls vary widely on how these three and Gingrich in particular will perform tonight, I'm also curious to see which pollsters have been blowing smoke.
Laelth
(32,017 posts)-Laelth
Texas Lawyer
(350 posts)I'm curious which is more accuate.
Laelth
(32,017 posts)I agree with you about Rasmussen.
-Laeth
brooklynite
(93,873 posts)They'll be a lagging indicator of trends, showing the correct direction, but being low on the actual results. 538 makes a mathematical effort to weight polls based on data accuracy and timeliness.
Schema Thing
(10,283 posts)KharmaTrain
(31,706 posts)The question is how many of those Romney people will get off their asses tonight and show up at caucuses...compared to the better organized Paulbots and fundies? Phone polls mean little when respondents won't be participating or have the chance to make up their minds at the last minute.
I'm doin' a "pick 'em" between Paul and Frothy and giving Paul the advantage due to his better organization. Mittens finishes third and he'll be closer to the lower dwarfs than the upper ones.
Texas Lawyer
(350 posts)caucus turnout means more than polls only because the media makes such a fuss about it.
aaaaaa5a
(4,667 posts)Thanks for the research involved in getting the top polloing numbers together. I generally view ppp very favorably. I also think using the RCP average gives good results too. Tonight there has been a lot of people including 538 who are unsure. I can't wait to compare results.
Texas Lawyer
(350 posts)aaaaaa5a
(4,667 posts)cthulu2016
(10,960 posts)The rest are saying who would have won as of (insert date the poll was in the field)