So RCP changed Wisconsin from leaning dem to neutral because of Ryan's selection...

[WCGreen]

I don't think the rest of Wisconsin is as enamored with Ryan. He seems to me to be perfect for a largely residential district full of upwardly mobil folks who vote for the GOP because they have been indoctrinated into believing the GOP will cut their taxes....

Am I missing something....

[Hamlette]

1. Nate Silver had a good analysis of that

basically he said if it is a state wide figure it can result in a 2% bump in votes in the home state. Nate only gave Ryan 1% because it is not a state wide office. He also said there is no way to predict how the choice will play out as there is no polling. So, RCP might be jumping the gun. I trust Nate's analysis.

[still_one]

3. Jumping the gun is an understatement, why not do an actual poll in a few days and see. Maybe rcp

Doesn't realize that a member of the house is elected by a district, not a whole state

[Drunken Irishman]

2. Stupid...

Obama leads by an average of five points in Wisconsin. For it to be a toss-up, it'd have to be much closer than that. What a stupid move by RCP. It's a move that undermines their credibility.

[RedStateLiberal]

4. His approval rating in Wisconsin

is only 38% favorable. 33% unfavorable. (pre-VP nod)

According to this article:
http://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/paul-ryan-behind-nice-smile-a-fierce-partisan-warrior-article-1.1134670

I just don't see him as a 'game-changer' for Wisconsin.

[Lasher]

5. Yes, I think you're missing something.

Consider the two most recent polls: Thompson (R) leads Baldwin (D) by 5% in a Marquette poll, and this race is tied in a Quinnipiac survey.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Wisconsin,_2012#Baldwin_vs._Thompson

We'll know more after the Wisconsin GOPee primary tomorrow. Baldwin polls better against all other GOP primary candidates, so let's hope Thompson doesn't win.

[Scuba]

6. Yes, you're overlooking election fraud which is rampant here in Wisconsin.