Democrats in prime position to take House, but battleground district poll shows wild cards remain
By Scott Clement and Dan Balz November 1 at 7:00 AM
Democrats maintain a strong position to retake the U.S. House, but the party’s base of less-frequent voters and concerns about illegal immigration stand out as wild cards in the final days before Tuesday’s midterm elections, according to a new Washington Post-Schar School poll of likely voters in battleground congressional districts.
Overwhelming majorities of both Democrats and Republicans are confident that their party will prevail, with both nearly as confident as Democrats were — erroneously, as it turned out — ahead of President Trump’s surprise victory two years ago. Voters also perceive high stakes in the event of a loss: At least two-thirds of Democrats and Republicans alike say a losing outcome for their party would be “very bad” for the country.
Across 69 congressional districts identified by the Cook Political Report and The Post as competitive in late August, the Post-Schar School poll finds 50 percent of likely voters support the Democratic candidate, while 46 percent support the Republican.
The Democrats’ four-point edge represents a superficial advantage with Republicans, given the poll’s 3.5-point margin of error. Still, the finding marks a sharp turn from 2016, when voters in these districts backed Republicans by a margin of 15 percentage points. With 63 of the battleground districts held by Republicans, that kind of shift in sentiment would be sufficient for Democrats to take control of the House. The party needs a net gain of 23 seats to win the majority.
While Republicans face significant challenges in holding the House, the dynamics of individual districts and uncertainties about turnout make for a wide range in the potential number of seats Democrats will gain Tuesday.
[Read full poll results | How the battleground survey was conducted]
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https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/democrats-in-prime-position-to-take-house-but-battleground-district-poll-shows-wild-cards-remain/2018/11/01/92da7754-dcb9-11e8-b732-3c72cbf131f2_story.html