I'm thinking the polling has missed a BUNCH of voters who will be on our side.

[Stinky The Clown]

First time voters are likely not properly being polled. In Georgia, for example, that's a massive number.

I think in some races, like Texas, the Hispanic vote is being under polled and will turn out for Beto.

A good bet is there are a lot of "shy" Republicans whose votes are being synthesized using conventional algorithms.

The media is telling us enthusiasm is up on both sides. Yeahokaysure. MAGAT enthusiasm is quite likely high. Problem is, it is a small but overly loud enthusiasm. Loud ain't shit. Enthusiasm on our side is wide and deep.

I am fighting an internal battle. I am feeling very positive but still scarred from 2016.





BTW . . . . Beto will win.

[handmade34]

1. "still scarred from 2016"

as we all are

[magicarpet]

2. So many new voters the polling is inaccurate.

[CentralMass]

3. We will know for sure in about a week.

[Wounded Bear]

4. I'm holding out hope that you are right...

[keithbvadu2]

5. There are many polls. Pick the one you like and swear by it. Swear at the others.

There are many polls.
Pick the one you like and swear by it.
Swear at the others.

[Separation]

6. Yep, been saying this myself

I can also see that the conspiracy nuts (AKA Republicans) are going to latch onto the polls being so wrong that the Democrats somehow "stole" the election.

[DeminPennswoods]

7. People are being polled

However, when election day gets closer, the pollsters switch to "likely voter" models. Most pollsters view past voting history as a more reliable indicator than "enthusiasm" or intention to vote for people who are occassional voters. This is where the problems arise. My suspicion is that pollsters are still weighting voting history more heavily than other factors and are therefore missing the "unlikely voters" like first time voters and occassional voters who tell pollsters they are certain to vote.

There was a recent TN poll from NBC/Marist where registered voters were culled down by nearly 40% into "likely voters".

[LiberalFighter]

8. In my opinion the model they use does not reflect current voters.

[GemDigger]

9. I get at least 10 poll calls a day.

In 2016 I took all of them. This year I have taken NONE.

[SWBTATTReg]

11. No polls taken here by me, never will either. nt

[Flaleftist]

14. I've never had a poll call and I'm a regular voter.

One thing different about this year is that I have had several text messages about candidates and various amendments.

Edit- Actually, I don't answer the phone if Indont know the number. So maybe they have tried to call, but didn't leave a message.

[superpatriotman]

10. If the country hates .45 as much as I do

It will be a rout.

I fear, however, that the country is far bigger and further to the right than my purview. Far bigger.

[Algernon Moncrieff]

12. Don't know

1) All politics are local. Wisconsin voted Trump, but every poll out there shows they are sick of Scott Walker. Florida had been turning hard right for a decade, and also went for Trump, but red tide and beaches with the stench of rotting fish has changed that calculus.

2) If Beto loses, the coulda/woulda/shoulda question will be this - Would a woman have won? I think it will be razor close either way. Beto voters are more enthusiastic. Will that be enough?

3) 538 says the Dems chances of winning the Senate are getting worse, but simultaneously states that "they are within a systematic polling error of winning" which is about 2.5% error across the board. Nate puts the odds of a blue Senate at about 1 in 7. However, what you describe could very well represent "systematic polling error."

4) Trump turned down Schumer's wall-for-Dream Act deal. As a result, Trump gets to whip his base into a frenzy over a huge group of men, women, and kids -- most of whom want to take menial, low wage jobs. Meanwhile, we are doing lousy job reminding voters that Trump is taking kids from families and putting them in camps.

5) We are an angry, socialist mob - yet we aren't the ones getting arrested in mass shootings. Go figure?

[Tracyjo]

13. More people agree with us than not

They'll vote for Democrats. We just have to overcome their (repubs) cheating. I don't trust them one bit! I really hope the young people vote. My fingers are crossed for Tuesday.

[Hermit-The-Prog]

15. first time vs purged

There have been some really unhinged voter purges (see Georgia, for example) and voter suppression by the GOPers. Is the giant influx of first time voters bigger than the deliberate distortions in the election process? If it is, then it seems to me that polls will underestimate Democratic chances. If it's a wash -- equal -- then polls should be accurate. If it's less than purges, suppression, and discarding of ballots, then the polls will overestimate Democratic chances.

I'm hopeful "but still scarred from 2016". Let's see how many fellow citizens are motivated to fix this mess. At the very least, we know there are a record number of women (and mostly Dem) running for office this time. Also, we know that there are many more people who are 'awakened' to the damage being done and lies being told. We will advance.