Clark County (NV) Democrats have a huge day at the polls

[RandySF]

Link to tweet

[grantcart]

1. With Ralston there are so many trees its hard to see the forest

What he has said is that Dems need 40,000 vote in Clark County with a 10% lead in number of ballots cast over Republicans

https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-early-voting-blog

As I have told you, if a Democrat has a 10 percent lead in Clark County, it is almost impossible for a GOP candidate to survive statewide, unless Washoe really helps (Heller won by 20,000 votes there in 2012 but the Dems are turning out well this cycle) and the rural landslide is big enough, which is a difficult needle to thread.

This is why the Democrats have a built-in advantage with early voting, especially with the reg edge they have enjoyed the last few cycles. And it has been enough for the top of the ticket every cycle of the last four, with Heller bucking the blue wave of 2012.

Can he survive again? It’s certainly possible, but Rosen has proven a tougher target than Berkley. Heller has bet it all on Trump and the president juicing GOP turnout, and it may work.

His analysis of the numbers just posted on his blog

Big day in Clark for Dems as 31,000 turnout yields a more than 4,000 ballot edge — southern firewall now at 37,500-plus. Rurals subtracted at least 1,000 ballots from that already and probably will take a little more — but population matters and Dems are likely to have a 10-point lead in Clark by Friday evening.

In Washoe, Dems picked up a few votes, lead by just under 700. All Dems wanted there was a draw, and they are going to get one even if GOP has a good day Friday.

If Dems have a similarly big day Friday, tremendous pressure on Republicans to have big Election Day.

It looks like the culinary union is getting everyone out.

This big Thursday showing is directly tied to the birth right nonsense from Trump. These reactions usually have momentum so that they carry forth over several days.

A big Friday could create a big hill that GOP cannot climb on election day.

[RandySF]

2. He told MSNBC two days ago that the union were hitting their targets.

[pnwmom]

3. Okay, but this does look much more hopeful than his earlier post for Thursday.

Earlier he said:

Turnout in Clark was at 17,300 at 3 PM, so it’s unlikely to get much more than 25,000 today. That would break a trend from the last four cycles in which the last two days were the largest days in Clark.

[grantcart]

4. Had a big afternoon

Seven hours later it looked different.

What can explain such a big burst of afternoon voters? I have a guess.

The union met everybody coming off the breakfast/lunch shift and told them to vote now because Trump was taking away birth right citizenship and they got on busses and went over, 14,000 of them.


https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-early-voting-blog

Big day in Clark for Dems as 31,000 turnout yields a more than 4,000 ballot edge — southern firewall now at 37,500-plus. Rurals subtracted at least 1,000 ballots from that already and probably will take a little more — but population matters and Dems are likely to have a 10-point lead in Clark by Friday evening.

and then there is this

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100211353651

Huge turnout in Washoe, too: 9.719. Dems increased lead by a small margin, still lead by just under 700. Point is Washoe is going to be a wash, which is very bad for the GOP.

What is the cause?

Taking away birth right citizenship.

If I am right that the Latino community just got a giant Taser shock and this is the first indicator then it won't just happen in NV. It would also happen in AZ, TX and FL.

It is possible, just possible that Trump's antics has given us a 50 50 Senate. You remember Trump at the rally laughing that everyone at the rally said that they already voted and he said "why am I here"?

Trump isn't motivating any of his base to go to the polls, they either already have voted or are going to anyway.

These sudden turns in NV may be showing a sharp increase in the Latino vote as a result of the Idiot in Chief's reckless statements. We may have to give him a MVP award.

[pnwmom]

5. Makes sense. Sure hope you're right!

I never thought I'd be so wrapped up in what happens in NEVADA.

( I'm continually grateful for the org built by Harry Reid and still annoyed with all the people who took him for granted.)

[grantcart]

6. lol, I never thought I would be so wrapped up in what happens in Orange County

https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1002&pid=11353714


This afternoon I had a conversation with a good friend who is a devout Catholic and has voted Republican for 40 years because of that.

He doesn't follow the details of the campaign as I do and called me this afternoon "What is happening? We have to take the House and I am getting worried, and we really need to take the Senate too".

For years we have had to impose a "no politic rule on our talks" and now its all we and we have to get this done.

From anecdotal to Nevada to Cruz leading going down to 3% something very big is happening.

The shootings, Trump's idiotic campaign gambits, it seems that the signs of a wave are starting to build.

[pnwmom]

7. My "barometer" is in Pennsylvania.

A young woman I've never met, the wife of one of my son's high school friends, who decided to friend me on FB for some reason.

Her dad is retired FBI and it's clear they were a Republican family. Her husband is a libertarian, whatever that is these days.

But once in a while the wife private messages me on FB. She has acknowledged she voted for Hillary and she's had it up to here with Trump. I hope it affects her votes down ticket. I don't push her specifically, though; I just keep posting away to all my friends and hope some of my posts land on fertile soil.

[sunonmars]

8. I'm expecting a bigger one today, last day of EV.