MSNBC: Just now reporter in Texas says EARLY VOTING has blown the doors off!

[PearliePoo2]

He will be reporting on this coming up!

I sure hope this is good news for Democrats! PLEASE...PLEASE...PLEASE!

Go Beto!!

[sunonmars]

1. I'm pretty sure it aint good news for Cruz.......

[RandySF]

27. But could good news for Lizzie Fletcher and Colin Allred

[dubyadiprecession]

2. What idiots think we're just going to win the house?

The senate will be ours too!
The “coked up turtle” can suck on that!

[sunonmars]

8. Yeah, I'm beginning to think there will be surprises on Tuesday....

[Hortensis]

13. Stay cool. Democracy is going to win, but it may take a while.

Btw, enemies of democracy received two judicial blows in Georgia.

On the bright side, though, a federal judge ruled today that new citizens must be allowed to vote if they show up with proof of citizenship because the (Republican-designed) process in place was blocking them.

Yesterday a federal judge "denied Secretary of State Brian Kemp's request to pause an injunction the judge ordered last week that prevents election officials from tossing out certain absentee ballots." Of course, being Kemp, he may already have secretly had those ballots dissolved in a vat of acid, as Turkey is now reporting Mr. Kashogghi's body was.

[Hermit-The-Prog]

21. what constitutes proof of citizenship?

The kind of proof required could be a sticking point. (I haven't seen the court documents). As someone suggested in another, unrelated thread, things that require a payment to the government could constitute a poll tax. Not everyone has a birth certificate or passport laying around.

The big win will be when GOPers are not in positions of power to distort elections, or when such distortions are declared to be unconstitutional under, for example, the 14th Amendment's equal protection under the law clause.

[vlyons]

26. proof

US passport, certificate of naturalization

[vlyons]

28. Mcconnell can go eat a bug

nt

[Hermit-The-Prog]

29. i have neither of those

[Gore1FL]

35. If you were born here a birth certificate would work. nt

[Hermit-The-Prog]

37. should NOT be needed anywhere

It should require proof in the other direction -- prove non-citizenship or let 'em vote. Statistics say there is a negligible problem with voter fraud. There is a non-negligible problem of disenfranchisement by GOP.

[Hortensis]

60. Sure. But these are NEW citizens. Our DIL just finally,

after growing up in the U.S. but feeling no need to become the "American" that she already was sufficiently for her comfort, became a citizen. That was because our pre-teen grandson was terrified she would be arrested, incarcerated, and eventually deported to Scandinavia.

Frankly, since she could bring family, the rest of us, especially our son, her husband, were also imagining what it would be like to join her to live at 55 north latitude with 6 months of no sunset, 6 months of no U.S.-style sunshine. Demark's society is organized around family, so we supposedly would have family ready-made to belong to, but then she speaks Danish and has visited a number of times, maybe a bit of a stretch for the rest of us.

In any case, she's now a U.S. citizen and we attended her oath taking earlier this year. She has papers to show she is now a new citizen -- like the rest of the people GA's Republican-controlled government is trying to effectively disenfranchise. Happily, she was able to vote for the first time without problems. Among the hundreds come to finalize their naturalization that day, though, there are apparently some not so fortunate.

[Hermit-The-Prog]

61. they've gone beyond challenging new citizens

I'm sure you're keeping up with the news. Alabama, for example, is making it harder for students to vote. Kobach in Kansas is the poster boy for purges and GOP voter suppression techniques -- if the name doesn't "look American", he tries to dump the voter. Georgia and others have targeted African Americans with polling place closures, purges, signature match malarkey, and flat out intimidation.

Voter ID is a trumped-up obstacle to voters the GOP suspects might not vote for them.

[Hortensis]

62. Talking about victory in GEORGIA, Prog. Of course, they're

attacking on other fronts.

[Gore1FL]

64. I agree

You were asking what would constitute proof. I simply provided a likely example. In-person voter-fraud is not how one would steal an election.

[Blue_true]

17. McConnell coming out and warning Dems about going after Trump with investigations was a tell.

I think that he knows that things are going badly for republicans and want to set a marker.

[FakeNoose]

20. Also, there is no Republican incumbent who deserves to be re-elected

... and they ALL know it! The stupid pricks can spend the rest of their lives thinking about what a terrible job they did for these 2 years that were totally wasted.

[PandoraAwakened]

41. Don't think House Dems are going to give a crap about what McTurtleneck wants

Democratic Response #1: "Time to get your own Russian affairs in order, McTurtleneck."

Democratic Response #2: "Let the real investigations begin!"

Democratic Response #3: Case closed. Lock 'em up.

[NewJeffCT]

52. Hey McConnell

Suck my dick

If you lose the House and/or the Senate, every time you whine the next 2 years, we're going to respond "Fuck you - Merrick Garland"

[Awsi Dooger]

19. The idiots are the ones who thought we would have a huge enthusiasm advantage

It was never going to happen. Trump is indeed like a cult figure for the other side. They aren't going to push him through a 16-person primary field and then electorally over the top in the general election, only to abandon him by staying home in a midterm two years later. Whites who seldom if ever voted previously turned out in 2016 for him and every indication is the same dynamic is holding up in 2018. The Florida early vote is 71% white compared to 63% whites on the voter rolls. Senior citizens are voting in surreal percentage in Florida. Marc Caputo details that every day.

Independent voters are on our side. That is our edge this time, as opposed to 2016 when somehow they favored Trump.

I think we'll narrowly take the House and lose a seat or two in the senate. My priority is the House first and then the governorships. The senate was never logically winnable this time. If Hillary had won in 2016 we would be facing a senate loss of 6-12 seats this cycle. Seats we'll hold comfortably would have been in jeopardy with Hillary as president. I love Hillary but that's simply the reality. Republicans have higher midterm wave upside since older voters show up while our strongholds like minorities and single women don't bother. When independents favor Republicans in midterms the numbers really get out of hand.

[PandoraAwakened]

45. All signs pointing to, "This ain't your grandma's or even your mama's Midterms anymore"

My relatives in Florida are white, a mixed bag of Rs and Ds, and every last one of them are voting straight D on this one, even the ones who've never in their entire lives voted in a midterm before. Since they are a raucous bunch, I can see them belly-laughing now that anyone would assume that just because they're white, that somehow magically means they'd vote for idiots like Scott and DeSantis who've already proven that they are clearly unwilling to protect my family's kids at school or anywhere.

So, we'll see what shakes out...

[LeftInTX]

67. I'm see Republican insurgent with middle class whites and Mexicans

The upper class are a mixed bag. (Ironically it seems like upper class people are less likely to vote straight ticket and more likely to study the candidates) Of course they trend Republican, but they tend to look at all the candidates.

[PearliePoo2]

3. An Iowa farmer was just interviewed. He grows corn and soybeans. Prices are down $2 a bushel.

It's barely break even now for the farmers. He said people will NOT be buying a new tractor, truck or refrigerator under these circumstances.

He has always voted for Steve King but he said if he was to vote today, now he's not sure if he would again.

[dalton99a]

5. Hopefully his love of money will overwhelm his hatred of brown people.

[Blue_true]

22. It truly amazes me.

No group in America (except maybe hot restaurant kitchens that rely heavily on Black and Brown people) need Brown people more than farmers. Farmers should be kicking the doors down to force Congress to come up with a working system for work visas for immigrant farm workers.

[cannabis_flower]

55. Count construction up there too.

[Blue_true]

59. Yeah, I forgot that.

Ever walked by a construction site recently and heard the workers communicating with eachother?

[SWBTATTReg]

14. And this is a shame, but these people were all gaga for rump and now are seriously ...

paying the price for it. No sorrow here. All of us are suffering under this piece of crap, so called president. His ego is so big that you could float an aircraft carrier w/ it.

[Dem_4_Life]

4. YAY that is awesome news!

GO BETO!!!

[Timmygoat]

6. I have a feeling

That Beto could one day be president.

[Dem_4_Life]

10. I agree and Beto believes 2 terms is good for the Senate.

Beto should serve 2 terms in the Senate and then he will still be at an awesome age to be President.

[SWBTATTReg]

16. I listened to him re. the NFL football players issue (taking a knee protests) and I was very ...

impressed. You're right, he's is very presidential and this is very refreshing to see. Perhaps one day, the siren call of the country will call him to serve. Best wishes to him and the folks in TX.

[vlyons]

30. Plus Beto has taken NO PAC or corporate money

nt

[murielm99]

69. Obama didn't even have to

complete one term in the Senate. I believe Beto would be ready, just like Barack.

[Qutzupalotl]

56. I have no doubt he will be president.

It’s just a matter of when.

There is an Obama-like quality to his optimism and faith in America’s promise. That view resonates and is unbeatable in the long run.

[Adrahil]

7. With the news that youth voting is way up....

Maybe Beto has a surprise in store for ole Grandpa Munster.

I would go a 2 day Bender in celebration. GO BETO!!!!!!

[dalton99a]

9. +1. Plus, younger people don't use landlines or answer spam phone calls

[Adrahil]

11. And they just aren't in the population models...

If a likely voter model says 20% youth vote and the real percentage is more like 30, then all the response sin the world aren;t going to help.

These likely voter models are KEY and I am really, REALLY hoping that the youth vote WAY outperforms the likely voter models of these polls.

[NewJeffCT]

39. Not all the polls

take into account new voters, either

[Adrahil]

44. And those that do...

... may underestimate them this cycle. They build these things on historical data, and this cycle looks to be unusual.

[PearliePoo2]

23. Right there with 'ya Adrahil!

Cheers! Here's to Beto!

[Funtatlaguy]

32. There is that.

https://www.google.com/search?q=grandpa+munster+photo&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&hl=en-us&client=safari#imgrc=FxbFY28iCiS2cM:

[Adrahil]

33. I almost hate to do it, because Al Lewis was a sweet guy.

And pretty left politically.

But it's just too good!

[PandoraAwakened]

47. Al Lewis himself would've come out in full makeup & wardrobe at Beto rallies against Cruz!

[Adrahil]

53. +10000 NT

[NBachers]

63. I'd love to have seen that!

[duforsure]

12. Voted the first day of early voting ,

And was amazed how many people were lined up , and mostly for Beto. Never seen so many people early voting here before in Texas. The polls are dead wrong too. Beto is doing much better than they show on any of them. Vote people.

[sl8]

15. Target Early has some numbers.

https://targetearly.targetsmart.com

( Note their caveats and information about modeled figures, party alignment, etc. : https://targetearly.targetsmart.com/modeling.html )

Modeled GOP : 2,378,270
Modeled Dem : 1,689,078
Modeled Unclear : 354,581

If you click on the various links in the "TX" row, you can get more details.

[LeftInTX]

40. I can't figure out the little dots

Turnout in Bexar County, Texas is off on their map. It has been very high in the red areas, but low in the blue areas.

Unless those that live in the blue areas are driving to the suburbs to vote??

[sl8]

58. I'm not sure.

I did find this site which shows the vote count by locations in the county, but, of course, it doesn't show results:

http://apps.bexar.org/earlyvotecounts

[LeftInTX]

66. Republicans are turning out big time.

Republicans who don't vote in midterms are voting. Republicans who seem nominal are voting.

Mexicans who I thought were Democrats are hardcore Republicans. (The only good news is they always have been) This is from a somewhat low income neighborhood too. They vote R every single primary every single time and never miss an election with all 5 of their grown kids.

Democrats have to drag their kids to the polls. Republicans get in line.

One woman wouldn't take my lit for her son. Said her 35 year old son was voting Republican with her.

[PearliePoo2]

18. Speaking of blowing the doors off...

MSNBC reporting that as of today, 34 million people have ALREADY VOTED! And there's 4 days left to go!

That's shattering the turnout of the previous mid-term!!

BLUE...BLUE...BLUE...BABY!

[lpbk2713]

24. I hope this is the beginning of the end for the GOP.

I've had enough of their hate and deceit.

[workinclasszero]

25. A huge turnout is always good news for dems

We far outnumber the Trump cult.

[Gothmog]

31. From Michael Li

Michael is a great attorney at the Brennan Center

Link to tweet

Link to tweet

[LeftInTX]

42. Red counties are having very high turn out: Collins, Montgomery and Williamson

I assume Denton is red, but I don't know much about it.

Don't know much about Galveston or Brazoria either.

[ffr]

34. Keep updating this thread so we can find out a little more about what this is about.

Clark County (Las Vegas) Nevada is also having a big day. And when it's a big turnout day, it's always good for democracy and democrats!

[bucolic_frolic]

36. There is every statistic out there

and statistics can be tweaked and cherry picked to mean anything you want.

Yes, more early voters nationwide, 4 days ahead of 2014. Are there more states with early voting? No one's made that a prominent side note.

Democrats are enthusiastic about early voters, because more are millennials, but one or two videos say early voting in some states favors Republicans.

Latino voters are an unknown according to some reporters. Pollsters grapple with the difficulty of polling millennials who are only reachable on their smart phones. Are they voting?

Beto needs millennials, Latinos, independents, and a few moderate Republicans who want to check Trump.

I can't predict. I hope Democrats late surge exceeds Republicans late push by more than 1.2%. I think that would put us over the top in a lot of races. It is so tight.

[sunonmars]

38. How's this for information.....

Link to tweet

314,569 first time voters have already cast a ballot in Texas. 78.2% of those voters are either non-white, or under the age of 40. There is an unanticipated surge of traditionally Democratic constituencies happening in Texas. Time will tell if it's enough for Beto to win.

[LeftInTX]

43. I'm having very good results in my precinct

Also voters who support Dems are turning out in mid-terms that normally don't.

But this is just my precinct. It is suburban, but red. 950 people voted for Hillary. I think 1300 voted for Trump. If I can find all 950 of them and drag them to the polls, it would be great. So far I identified 730. So far only 159 have not voted. Of those who have not some are sick, have dementia, gone off to college etc. (30 year olds who use their parents address even though they don't live there. Very hard to reach)

Some just won't vote.

Some will vote today.

Some will vote on election day.

[bucolic_frolic]

48. Thanks, that is specific

of course those voting blocs would have to continue to vote on actual election day in the same proportion as they normally would. If they all voted early, the trend would peter out, and election day would be swamped by those over 40 and white. It's hard to draw iron-clad conclusions.

[LeftInTX]

68. In my precinct surname means nothing.

I'm a new precinct chair and a pore through the lists...everytime I see a Hispanic name, I'm hopeful. Then I see that they are lockstep Republican.

I live in a large precinct.
Lower middle class: This is where I thought the Mexican-American Democratic vote would be the highest, but it isn't. They are the Republicans. These are where the Mexican MAGAS live. (They aren't as rapid as the white MAGAs, but they are tea party types who don't trust the government etc. Another chunk are the religious right)
Middle Class: Mixed voting records. Spotty voting at times.
Upper Middle Class: Mixed voting. Vote frequently. Lean Republican, but not always

I also have a small community of renters. They are transient types. Starter homes. Not engaged.

The lower middle class-middle class concern me. They are more pervasive and they're redneck. Mexicans are rednecks too.

I went up to one Mexican household...newly registered voters..(no history) Big old trucks with cattle grates. I'm leary. I get to the door and see a gun sign: "We don't call 911. We shoot".

[Ilsa]

46. Georgia, too.

1,500,000 early votes.

For a lot of counties, it looks like 30-40% of early voters also voted early in 2014.

In my county, about 30% of 2018 early voters voted on election day in 2014.

30-35% of 2018 early voters in my county did not vote in the 2014 election.

I voted early today. Probably 30 machines at this location, all of them steadily busy.

Sadly, my county is very Red. But I hope the high turnout means people want to hold trmp accountable.

[PandoraAwakened]

49. LATEST TEXAS UPDATE

Michael Li Retweeted:

@ErikVidor
26 minutes ago

A follow up: we're now up to 5,110,000 voters in the file. Almost 546,000 or 10.5% are w/o voting history back to 2010. 51% are U35 & 51% female. Millennials are showing up y'all. Thinking we'll have a huge final Friday turnout.

[cannabis_flower]

57. Also this just out

New poll, Beto up by 2 points in new poll of likely voters:


https://www.msnbc.com/hardball/watch/o-rourke-leading-cruz-by-2-points-in-new-poll-1324589635609?v=raila&fbclid=IwAR2yZC9iILQf4oWZVhfM3GRf3E9Nnz6otIOjAbkdKQsXTteTa_XR1GL467s

[Glimmer of Hope]

50. Tuesday can't get here soon enough!

[samnsara]

51. earlier it was reported there was an increase in early voting for GOP...

...hope things have changed.

[SaveOurDemocracy]

54. If you are referring to the Karl Rove authored piece, fuggedaboutit.

https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1002&pid=11355904

[sarcasmo]

65. Kick for Hope.