General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsGOP have grave concerns in 4 states that may drive more democrats and democratic leaning independent
to vote Tuesday:
the four states are deciding whether to loosen restrictions on marijuana usage, with Michigan and North Dakota voting on whether to fully legalize pot, including for recreational usage. Polling has consistently shown Michigan's Proposal 1 passing, but it's unclear if North Dakotas far more conservative electorate is on board with full legalization yet. Meanwhile, Missouri and Utah will vote on legalizing medical marijuana. This issue alone can bring enough people out in Missouri that McCaskill could easily win re-election and who knows in North Dakota what this made do for Hiedi's campaign. I know this ballot measures were all fought against by the GOP in those states for good reason..
We could see some stunning upsets in all 4 states if the turnout is influenced by these ballot measures as many races are in the 2-5% range and any significant increase of democratic/democratic leaning independent voters can bring victory....
Andy823
(11,495 posts)I also keep seeing all the reports of how many Democrats and republicans are turning out to vote early, but never here about the independent voters. More people these days identify as independents instead of the two many parties. I think there could be a lot of surprises come Tuesday.
beachbum bob
(10,437 posts)NPA (no party affliated) is a significant number of voters in our elections. In other states you can be "independent" and declare it to be so. To me, the way to factor thus segment of voters on which direction they lean is based on"
- what do "national polls" indicate
- what are some of the driving local issues (like leaglized pot)
- what are the top 2 or 3 election issues nationally and locally
if you do what many pollsters do, they usually just split the independent voters in half. we know other pollsters who will factor the independent vote based on local ratios of registered Ds and R's. We know that neither will not be the actual case and why we have surprises in elections.
To me, its never a 50-50 split, never. Local at the demographics of the "independent voter". What is the make up of male-female aspect, education, race factors. The independent vote could easily skew 60-40 in either direction. That is a major impact on elections decided by 3-5% and wave elections can be a small one or a tsunami.
If the "independent voter" composition leans female, with education and has a significant minority segment...we could see a tsunami....
Wounded Bear
(58,440 posts)beachbum bob
(10,437 posts)greenman3610
(3,947 posts)roamer65
(36,739 posts)All lies and misinformation.
Also the craven victimization of a dad of a 16 yr old boy who smoked pot and died in a auto accident.
Im sorry, but that happens WAY more with alcohol than pot. Give me a break.
So following their stupid logic should we ban alcohol? We tried that in the past and it was a big FAIL.
beachbum bob
(10,437 posts)for obvious reasons. Here in Illinois, a reluctant GOP governor did all he could to institute medical pot law and dragged his feet on legalization of pot for recreational use. The New Democratic governor will have legal recreational pot signed into law in first 6 months.
JudyM
(29,122 posts)Its an important healthcare issue, in its own right.