The Senate May come down to 4 states MO, IND, FLA, TN.

[Funtatlaguy]

I’ve been obsessed with the Senate the last two weeks.
Dems keep trending up with very high early turnout everywhere.

As you all probably know, we have to flip 2 seats to gain control to flip the current 51-49 GOP.
Here’s where I see the competitive races.
We will lose a seat in ND
We will gain 3 seats in AZ, NV, TX (yes! Texas where Dem turnout has been thru the roof!).
We will hold WVA, NJ, MONT.
That puts us where we need to be at 51-49 DEM with 4 more states in play.

That leaves us defending Fla, MO, IND.
GOP defending TENN.
So, we only have to win 2 out of these 4.
All 4 of these are now legitimate within the margin of error tossup states. All are Super close.

So, If you know any Dems or Dem leaning Independents in these 4 states, please beg them to vote on Tuesday. If you know Repubs in these states, tell them that you hope they vote “WEDNESDAY”.

Just imagine the Orange 🍊 guy in the White House waking up on Wednesday knowing that in January he will be having to face a Dem House AND a Dem Senate with all of that subpoena power.
Let’s go guys. Bring on that big blue wave 🌊 !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[NNadir]

1. I certainly hope you're right about everything except maybe ND. I'm ever the optimist.

I still believe in my country, although I'm having a hard time understanding how we got to where we are in the first place.

[Calma]

2. Tennessee

The President is in Chattanooga, TN for a rally with Marsha Blackburn. I saw an article last night that said early voter turnout was the same as 2016 election day. I'm hoping Republicans will cross over. Governor Haslam is going out of office this year.

[diva77]

11. Rethug SOS's in MO, IN, FLA, TN

https://ballotpedia.org/Secretary_of_State_(state_executive_office)



These are the ones who will certify the results

[beachbum bob]

3. All about turnout

Get the damn vote OUT.

[Awsi Dooger]

4. Elections are decided by preference, not turnout

I don't mind playing the non-cheerleader role. This site is setting itself up for huge disappointment in Texas, which likely will not be close...not within 3-4 points.

Elections are decided by preference and in federal races like senate by far the most paramount factor toward preference is ideology. There are simply too many conservatives in Texas and other states we are trying to swipe or hold.

This midterm would have set up exponentially better in senate terms if Donald Trump still carried a 37% approval rating, like this time last year, instead of the current 42%. That 5% uptick impacts preference all over the country.

Toward 2020 we have to hope Trump stays at this 42% level instead of inching steadily higher. Again, I have no problem playing the handicapper role instead of the cheerleader role. I believe his approval rating will continue to rise. An incumbent whose party has been in power only one term owns surreal margin for error and benefit of a doubt. As long as that is understood, and day to day variables ignored, the world is much more clear without nearly the angst and disbelief.

[beachbum bob]

5. Turnout my friend, that's how republicans have taken power, while democrats

Sat on their asses...
And the difference this year?... in case you have ignored 2 years of special elections?...

Democrats are fucking angry, for the first time. Let's talk Texas nov 7th...

[Onward AND Upward]

14. Sorry, your wet blanket impersonation isnt going to dampen the masses anger. R's & I's included.

Preparing for disappointment, in order to buffer against it, is no way to fire up Dems!!! But maybe that's your real goal.

Here's a Randy Rainbow video to remind readers why we're going at this, with all hands on deck!

[walkingman]

6. I hope your right about Texas. If so, I might have a celebratory drink and I don't drink.

[Adrahil]

7. Gonna be tight here in IN....

But Joe has the edge. I think he wins by 3 points. We'll see.

[Garrett78]

8. I would think Nelson is more likely to win than Beto. And Rosen is not a sure bet.

Maybe it's just because I don't want to be disappointed, but I'm really only counting on us taking back the House. I figure simply not losing ground in the Senate would be a victory, and put us in good position heading into 2020.

That said, of course I'm hoping like hell that we take both chambers (but I sort of suppress my Senate hopes).

[BlueintheSTL]

9. Here in Missouri we have closest Senate race in the country

And that is saying something with how many close races there are. I think Claire will put it out by the narrowest of margins. Some are even saying we will not know the outcome of this race on election night and may even head to a recount. Anyway, chalk three votes up for Claire! I think Claire will win by a point -- it is that close.

[xmas74]

13. It will be very close

but I am hearing a number of people who are sick and tired of the attack ads by Hawley-and they are long time Republicans. They also don't understand the brazenness of his lies about the preexisting diseases lawsuit that he joined as an AG, yet claims in his commercials doesn't exist.


I don't believe even one major newspaper in Missouri has sided with Hawley. I think Claire pulls it out by the skin of her teeth without a recount. (Besides, I said to Claire that she had better win it so my kid could do an internship under in a year or so in DC. My kid wouldn't be allowed anywhere near anyone who associates with former Governor Graytape.)

[Wawannabe]

10. Lived and voted in MT in 2006

That’s when we fired Burns and elected Tester! Hope he holds.
Same goes for Claire. I always voted for Claire when I lived in MO.

[tavernier]

12. The mail in ballot I requested did not arrive

to Indiana by Saturday, so I got on a plane and flew back to Florida yesterday. I will vote in my own precinct, then get back on a plane and return to Indiana for the rest of my visit with my northern family.

Oh, and while I’m here, I’m wearing my shorts and sandals and sipping rum.

[grantcart]

15. If we take TX we will win the Senate

Recent polls in MO FL IN are looking good.

4 polls came in putting Nelson ahead.

McCaskill and Donelly are up, and if there is a wave that takes TX then MO & IN would also rise.