Whoa. What the hell happened in Indiana?

[Drunken Irishman]

Donnelly has surged. He was up 7 in the most recent FOX News poll and up 3 in the NBC/Marist poll - giving him the lead in the two most recent polls. I really thought Donnelly was DOA.

Bam!

[beachbum bob]

1. Don't believe what you hear, the entire country is uprising.

But still have to get off our asses and vote

[Demovictory9]

2. ..

[Awsi Dooger]

3. An incumbent should win in Indiana

Somewhat strange state in that the electorate is heavily white (83%) and with a big Republican registration edge, but not overly conservative. The 38-22 split among self-identified conservatives and liberals is not a disaster compared to the national number of 36-27.

It would be disastrous to lose incumbents in states with fewer than 40% conservatives. The examples are Indiana and Florida. Also New Jersey, although that one seems less problematic.

[grantcart]

4. Jon Ralston also gave a very detailed explanation why ND polling

Is very difficult.

The Senate is still in play

[rpannier]

5. Depends mostly on Lake County

If L.C. comes out, Donnelly should win -- see Obama in 2008. If they don't turn out for him, he's toast
L.C. is heavily union and has a lot of minorities. Donnelly hurt himself with Hispanics in the region with his willingness to support change birthright citizenship at the debate. I have friends in the region and they say there are a lot of unhappy people in E.C. and Hammond over it.

He needs L.C., Indianapolis and St Joseph's

[sunonmars]

7. They need to see the big picture,a chance with Donnelly and Dem senate or a GOP senate and no chance

This is far too important to be sitting on the sidelines, its like a chicken choosing between the farmyard and the abatoir.....there no thinking about it.

[LittleGirl]

6. Bloomington and South Bend

are college town too. Donnelly is a middle of the road Dem and he's not the best of the D's and he's not crazy like the R's in that state.