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538: "How To Watch The Midterms: An Hour-By-Hour Guide"
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/2018-election-polls-close/Starting when the first polling places close at 6 p.m. Eastern, election night will be a whirlwind of tweets, numbers, emotions, speeches, pizza and live blogs. To see when polls close in each state, check out this map; to learn what to watch in each state, read the following hour-by-hour preview of key races (all times Eastern).
6 p.m.
Polls close in: most of Indiana, eastern Kentucky
As the first polls close, we’ll start to see results in two districts that could hold clues for how the rest of the night will unfold: the Kentucky 6th and Indiana 9th. The Kentucky 6th is rated1 as Toss-Up in the Classic version of our model. If Democratic challenger Amy McGrath is able to oust GOP Rep. Andy Barr, it will be an early sign of a Democratic wave, as the Kentucky 6th is about 10.5 points more Republican-leaning than the nation as a whole, according to FiveThirtyEight’s partisan lean metric.2 On the other hand, our model rates the Indiana 9th as Likely Republican, so if Democrat Liz Watson somehow pulls off an upset against Republican Rep. Trey Hollingsworth, it may point to a very long night for Republicans. The 6 p.m. poll-closing hour will also yield early returns in the Indiana U.S. Senate race, a seat that Democrats must hold in order to have any hope of capturing the Senate. Democratic Sen. Joe Donnelly currently has a 7 in 10 chance there.
7 p.m.
Polls close in: most of Florida, Georgia, the rest of Indiana, the rest of Kentucky, most towns in New Hampshire, South Carolina, Vermont, Virginia
Florida and Georgia are hosting two of the most interesting gubernatorial campaigns in the country this year; both races highlight the parties’ ideological divisions and have the potential to make history. Georgia is a Lean Republican race, according to our model, and there’s a chance that race may bleed into a December runoff if neither major-party candidate — Democrat and former state House Minority Leader Stacey Abrams or Republican Secretary of State Brian Kemp — can win 50 percent of the vote. But things look a little more straightforward in Florida. Our forecast gives Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum a 3 in 4 shot to become Florida’s first Democratic governor in 20 years and its first-ever black governor. Florida will also be the second state, after Indiana, to report results from a vulnerable Democrat-held U.S. Senate seat.
In the House, we’ll see results from districts like the Florida 27th and Virginia 10th, both of which look like easy pickup opportunities for Democrats. But if Republicans hold on to these seats, that may mean they have a shot at hanging on to the House. There are also several toss-up districts at stake, like the Florida 26th and Virginia 5th. If Democrats are able to flip these, they’ll be on track for a healthy House majority. And if Democrats can also pick off districts that lean Republican like the Virginia 2nd, they will be doing better than expected.
7:30 p.m.
Polls close in: North Carolina, Ohio, West Virginia
Democrats don’t have a lot of House targets here, but North Carolina and Ohio are two states where a blue tsunami could break open the Republican firewall; if that happens, look for likely-but-not-safe Republican districts like the North Carolina 2nd and Ohio 1st to fall. Former state Attorney General Richard Cordray also has a 55 percent shot of returning the Ohio governorship to the Democrats, who last held it in 2011.
snip - lots more, takes it to the end.
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