My Senate map prediction -- looks like it comes down to TX or TN for the win.

[honest.abe]

[NewJeffCT]

1. I'd be happy if Democrats took the House and didn't lose seats in the senate

I'm shocked, to be honest, that we're even talking about the possibility of Dems winning the Senate - with a decent economy, Dems should be looking at losing 5-9 seats with the kind of map they're up against.

[honest.abe]

5. Yeah, that would be great but without the Senate there could be another Idiot appointed Supreme.

That could be the final nail.

I think there is a real legitimate chance to win back the Senate given the recent polling and news of massive early voting.

[genxlib]

2. If I read your map correctly

You need TX and TN to tie.

That still leaves the Senate deadlocked with Pence casting the tie-breaker.

[honest.abe]

6. Nope.. I have 50 without TX or TN (note they are browned out)

Either one gives us 51.

[YessirAtsaFact]

3. I have naive hope that both flip Blue

I think Texas is more likely than Tennessee but the number of new voters in both states is off the charts.

[honest.abe]

8. Yep, Texas looks like a real possibility.

Wouldn't it be lovely!

[rgbecker]

4. I love your optimism in MO., AZ., Fl., MT n/t.

[honest.abe]

7. Yeah.. have to be or I would jump off a cliff.

[JCMach1]

9. Both are breaking D direcection

[YessirAtsaFact]

10. I'm naively optimistic about both

You have to like the number of new vein both states

[jcgoldie]

11. I agree with your map

Would love for Beto to put us over the top and if so they can have Tennessee.

[honest.abe]

14. Beto for the win!

[Tanuki]

19. ..."they can have Tennessee." No they can't! I live here and I am still fighting like hell.

Please don't count Phil Bredesen out before the day of November 6 is over! You may be surprised at his support in some groups that have been historically undersampled in the polling. It all comes down to which party can GOTV more effectively, so please don't be dismissive! Marsha Blackburn will vote against everything you stand for and everything you believe in, so think long and hard before you say she can "have" that senate seat.
We are all in this together.

[jcgoldie]

21. Sorry

Didn't mean to offend hard working democrats in Tennessee, only meant if someone offered a 51-49 democrat controlled senate right now we'd all take it!

[Firestorm49]

12. The rigging is already in place for close elections.

It’s called gerrymandering and voter suppression. We won’t win in a state where its a close call.

[honest.abe]

13. The gerrymandering and voter suppression wont be enough this time.

The blue tsunami will overwhelm that crap.

[grantcart]

16. Curious how does someone gerrymander a US Senate seat that is decided statewide?

Voter suppression attempts frequently trigger higher voting on the targeted population and that seems to be the case here with record mid term turnout.

The biggest obstacle to massive Democratic victory in mid terms is low Democratic turnout, we suppress ourselves.

[honest.abe]

24. Move the state lines I guess..

[blogslut]

22. Gerrymandering doesn't apply in the TX senate race

Whoever gets the most votes wins, unless it's crazy close then a runoff might take place.

[Drunken Irishman]

15. I think Democrats eke out wins in NV, AZ, MT, IN and MO...

However, I am not hopeful on Tennessee or Texas. Still, I could see Tennessee going Democratic if I had to pick the most likely of the two.

Sadly, I do not think Beto will carry Texas.

[grantcart]

20. We have a goid chance in both.

The key metric in elections with 20% or higher than normal turnout is negatives by the candidates.

In both TN and TX Cruz and Blackburn both have extremely high negatives and this means that they have an effective ceiling and increased turnout will break against them.

Also undecideds generally break against incumbents.

Finally the latest polls are showing significant breaking towards D, polling after the latest shooting and the repeal of birthright citizenship. We may have reached the final straw for a critical 10% of the population.

I find it very interesting that Trump has returned to Montana 4 times and polls still show Tester ahead.

[RhodeIslandOne]

17. I'll take my chances with that map at 11PM tomorrow night

[vercetti2021]

18. Beto squeaks out and wins

God please? I'd break down crying if he does.

[peggysue2]

23. A lot of us would break down crying because . . .

it would be a political earthquake and a clear indication that the American public, Texans specifically, had voted for our Better Angels, the America we need to be.

[D_Master81]

25. I'm not sold on Donnelly

I know the polling has been in his favor, but in conservative country there’s Braun signs EVERYWHERE

[bearsfootball516]

26. I've seen it the other way.

I'm in blood red Elkhart County, and the Donnelly signs here outnumber Braun 10-1.