Too Bad the Pollsters Missed This

[berni_mccoy]

I am one of those who hasn't chosen to ostracize family and friends because of their political persuasions, including their support for Trump. There are distinctly two types of conservatives an they are running 60/40 based on my sampling of about 100 conservatives that I know. 60% of my conservative friends and family are die-hard turmpians. The other 40 have been extremely quiet based on past activity on social media and communications. I've reached out to a few and the quiet ones are clearly not happy with the given situation, in particular about health care matters and the treatment of women. A few are actually against Trump's anti-immigration stance, one in particular responded "I vote as a human being and not as someone who separates families or puts kids in cages".

I finally saw MSNBC covering this aspect when they looked at the VA-07 House race of Spanberger (D) v Brat (Trumpian). Stephanie Ruhle had on a segment interviewing Republicans in that district that were disgusted with Trump and voting for Spanberger. They cited all of the things I have observed above. This district hasn't been held by a Democrat in more than 50 years (according to the story).

Even if only 20-25% of Republicans vote Democratic, that will be more than enough to sweep both the House and the Senate and many many State lawmaker and Governor positions.

Too bad the pollsters have not looked at this metric in detail. We will have to wait until tomorrow night to see how many conservative voters are actually voting their conscience and morals instead of drinking Trump's cool aide.

[northoftheborder]

1. I dare hope this is true in many places.

They would never put up a Dem. sign or go to a rally, but in the privacy of their home and ballot box, they are appalled with Trumpism.

[Pluvious]

2. There's the other factor too, one difficult to poll...

The unmotivated stay-at-homers...

Apathy can make or break a candidate.

[lindysalsagal]

18. But there's also the silent, hidden racist trump vote: They don't report to pollsters.

You can't forget that vote and it's everywhere.

[CaliforniaPeggy]

3. A big, fat K&R! This is a very important post and I'm so glad I found it!

Sure hope you're right!

Fingers crossed. And toes!

[NastyRiffraff]

4. Those of you on Twitter

Go to #GOPVotingBlue. It's absolutely wonderful. There are a LOT of them, and I wonder if the pollsters have taken them into account. Just a few samples (There are lots more)

Link to tweet

I’ve voted Red since age 18 with George W. Today, I voted Blue in my new home state of FL to show these old GOP hacks that they can’t continue to run our government into the ground. We need social responsibility NOW #GOPVotingBlue

Link to tweet

As a Conservative, I never thought I would be voting straight Democratic in ANY election. But I love my country more than any one party. I am voting AGAINST the hateful rhetoric of Donald Trump and his ignorant supporters. #GoBlue #VoteBlue #GOPVotingBlue

Link to tweet

I’m a former Texas Republican, who worked with the Rick Perry campaign. I left the @GOP in 2010, after realizing that I could no longer rationalize hate and bigotry, and look the other way while blatant racism, sexism, and homophobia ran rampant. #GOPVotingBlue

Link to tweet

Since I moved to the USA in 1988 I have voted Republican. I am a registered republican... Proud to say I already voted. And for the first time ever I voted for straight Democrat! Thanks to our Pres for helping me make up my mind. #GOPVotingBlue Vote Gillum and Nelson!!!

[Awsi Dooger]

5. Zero chance that 20-25% of Republicans vote Democratic

I understand the enthusiasm but the one disturbing trend here and elsewhere is the anecdotal evidence of Republicans who plan to vote for our side.

That is not going to hold up in meaningful numbers. Just get it out of your head. The Republican hold of their side is going to be very standard and monopolistic, well above 90%.

Adjustments simply don't work in that type of variable. These are Republicans, after all. Imagine someone remaining a Republican in this day and age. Do you really think they are going to betray?

[Cosmocat]

15. Yeah

A friend of mine who is from a prominent very wealthy Republican family has come out against 45. He's a nice guy, and we've always had some good political discussions over the years. But, I really would be surprised if he didn't vote straight R today because conservatives still believe in their heart of hearts they're f****** b*******.

[FromMissouri]

6. ostracized

In the family, I may have one of these. My sis was solidly behind Jimmy, many many years ago, but then met and married a small business owner who decided he had done it all by himself and the Democrats were making all these rules he had to follow that prevented him from getting richer faster, and she sort of went along with him. After he bought her her own Mercedes. We were ostracized from their house before the 2016 election because we actually countered him about the importance of regulation (and the insanity of Trump). Haven't seen her since, and she used to counter my infrequent emails with, "Don't send me political shit."
Now she is silent. I would like to believe she doesn't want to create a record, but in the privacy of the voting booth, she will let her conscience prevail. She's a good person, just circumstantially pressed into a no-win situation.

[onlyadream]

7. My family was all for Trump

So much so that I distanced myself from them. All the Facebook posts were how great he was and how wicked Hillary was. Then the posts stopped. A few days ago a post went up from one, and it was a shared article disputing trump’s claim to be the cause of low unemployment. I was shocked.

[onit2day]

8. By this time any person who still supports Trump or his republican enablers

is deplorable and should be seen as offensive and stupid. They are caught up in a cult and too weak to stand against this trash posing as a party. The Trump crime family are not government employees as much as thieves. If they want to save the planet they must vote Democratic. If they don't want their grand children fighting over drinking water, they must vote democratic. Yet these deplorables are caught up in the cult of personality. They will lose.

[Garrett78]

9. "Even if only 20-25% of Republicans vote Democratic..." LOL

Good one.

[Quixote1818]

10. One thing is for sure

I don't think 538 is going to be hiring the OP author any time soon.

[Garrett78]

12. Earlier I read a post in which someone predicted 60% turnout for this midterm election.

We all want a giant blue wave, but some of these predictions are way out of touch with reality.

[SweetieD]

11. 20 to 25 percent is pretty high. Even if we break off 5 to 10 percent it would be

enough to make a difference.

[Hamlette]

13. I doubt it will be even 5% but I'd be happy if they just stayed home.

[DeminPennswoods]

14. That info is in the poll

Just look at the vote preference by party. It's usually one of the top lines.

David Jolly was asked about this on Deadline:WH, iirc. He said he, as a GOP candidate, needed to have 90+% of GOP registered voters to win. Anything less than 90 spelled trouble. When reading that data, though, keep in mind that some unknown number of republicans have left the party and registered as independents making the GOP voter base more devoted to GOP candidates.

If you want a sense of the number of conservative voters you've encountered, look at the difference between registered Rs and self-identified Rs. The same holds true for Dems.

[RhodeIslandOne]

16. I think at best we hope they don't vote

Trump says a zillion horrible things and lies to maybe one of ours gaffing once in a blue moon and it's still "both sides".

[Codeine]

17. There is literally no possibility whatsoever

that even 10% of Republicans vote Democratic. Zero probability.