My predictions for my state of Connecticut

[NewJeffCT]

I posted this as a reply elsewhere:

I'm not very hopeful on Ned Lamont for Governor - he has a slight lead according to the latest polls. However, Stefanowski is getting huge money from outside groups and his ads are EVERYWHERE. I was on youtube last night and I had to sit through a Stefanowski ad before I could watch a video and every time I turned on the TV, there are pro Stefanowski and/or anti Lamont ads. It seems like it is almost 2 out of every 3 ads are anti Lamont or pro Stefanowski. Plus, while Lamont was popular with Democrats in 2006 because of his anti Iraq war stance, he is otherwise not a great campaigner, nor very inspiring. (Lamont beat Joe Lieberman in 2006 in the Democratic Primary for Senate, but Joe turned around and ran as an independent and won handily in the general, getting most Republican voters and many independents and conservative Dems)

I see Murphy holding on to his senate seat, though I'm disappointed the last poll I saw had him up by "only" 15. He's been a tireless advocate for more gun control, which is popular here in CT.

I think Jahana Hayes will win to hold the CT-5 seat blue, and the other 4 Democratic incumbents will win as well

My prediction:
Bob Stefanowski 48%, Ned Lamont 45% and the remainder to 3rd party candidate Oz Griebel, around 7% . Seat flips from Blue to Red.

Senate race will be Murphy 59% and Matt Corey 40%

House races will be:
Jahana Hayes 53-47% over Manny Santos
Jim Himes 55%-44% over Harry Arora
John Larson, Rosa DeLauro and Joe Courtney will all win by at least 20%


State legislature - Democrats currently have an 80-71 margin in the House and will increase the margin by a small amount.
State senate is 18-18 and Democrats will pick up 1 or 2 seats to get full control.
(as an FYI, Dems had over 2:1 margins in both houses after the 2008 elections, so they've been trending the wrong direction for a decade)

[dem4decades]

1. I hope you're wrong about Lamont. And huge money is

Obviously putting in for Stepinowski. Or whatever his name is. I hope that enthusiasm for Hayes and Murphy along with Hines strength and Courtney's can bring Ned across the finish line.

Bob will destroy the state.

[NewJeffCT]

3. agreed

His plan of eliminating the state income tax would mean most towns would have to raise property taxes 25% to 50% to make up for the lost revenue, and Connecticut already has among the highest property taxes in the nation. Coupled with not being able to deduct property taxes over 10K nationally, it's a recipe for disaster for many residents in the state (We have a home, plus we own another home that we rent out because we weren't able to sell it a few years back..., so we'd get hammered)

[kcr]

2. Lamont will likely win. Stefanowski has never held a lead. n/t

[NorCen_CT]

4. I unfortunately agree with your Gov prediction

I wasn't *too* nervous about the Governor's race until Friday night, when I got a robocall (that left a voicemail) from Pres. Obama for Ned Lamont (the internal numbers must be BAD if they had to get Pres. Obama to do a call for them - but I'm glad he did one, and I hope it somehow helps).

Stefanowski will dig this state into an even further hole (somehow lowering the state income tax to zero over a few years will erase our debt/pay off our bonds - I know when I want to pay off my debts I tell my employer to start lowering the amount of my paychecks (all the way down to zero).

I'm in CT-2, and Joe Courtney seems to have this one in the bag as well (as he has since his first win vs. Rob Simmons).

[Dawson Leery]

5. Blue State, unpopular GOP "President".

Add the polls, Ned Lamont has a solid 8 point average lead.

You are underestimating Murphy and Himes.

[NewJeffCT]

6. yes, Trump is unpopular

but outgoing Democratic governor Dan Malloy is far more unpopular than Trump.

And, as I stated above, 10 years ago, both the State House and State Senate in Connecticut had better than 2:1 margin for Democrats.That number has steadily trended downward and now the State Senate is tied 18-18 and the State House is 80-71.

In the state Senate, Democrats had a 24-12 advantage in 2008, 23-13 seats in 2010, 22-14 seats in 2012, 21-15 in 2014 and are now evenly split 18-18 after losing 3 seats in 2016.

In the state House, Democrats had a 114-37 advantage in 2008, so have lost 34 seats in the four elections since 2008. In 2010, Dems lost 17 seats to make it 97-54, then picked up 1 in 2012 98-53; then lost 11 in 2014 to 87-64 and lost 8 more in 2016, dropping to 79-72. One Republican seat swung to a Democrat in a special election, so it's 80-71 now.

[NewJeffCT]

7. this is also worrying

"Democrats, who tend to win or lose elections based on turnout in New Haven, Bridgeport, Hartford, Stamford and a dozen key suburbs, lack the ground game assembled by Malloy four years ago, when Democrats worked for more than six months to contact and turn out Democrats who tend to vote in president elections, then skip the mid terms."

https://ctmirror.org/2018/11/04/candidates-make-last-sprint-around-connecticut-polls-open/