'This is not a normal election': Massive early voting creates midterms X-factor

[DonViejo]

The turnout could be a source of error in pre-election surveys if pollsters did not calibrate properly for such high rates of voting.

By ZACH MONTELLARO 11/05/2018 06:42 PM EST

A staggering 36 million voters cast their ballots ahead of Election Day this year, setting the stage for much-higher-than-usual turnout for a midterm — and, potentially, big surprises on Tuesday night.

Republican enthusiasm for President Donald Trump and Democrats’ itch to repudiate him at the ballot box have driven people to the polls far faster than in 2014, when 27.2 million people voted early, according to Michael McDonald, a University of Florida professor who tracks voter turnout.

And that trend is expected to extend into Election Day. Early voters in three states — Texas, Nevada and Arizona — have already surpassed total turnout in the last midterm election, McDonald’s data shows, and more states will blow past their normal non-presidential turnout with just a handful more votes on Election Day. The high voting rates have transformed expectations about who will show up in the midterms — and they could inspire results that diverge from any pre-election polls that did not reckon with this year’s unusually high enthusiasm.

“This is not a normal election,” McDonald told POLITICO. “The best guess is that we’re looking at some sort of hybrid midterm/presidential election” in terms of turnout.

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https://www.politico.com/story/2018/11/05/early-voting-turnout-2018-elections-midterms-963149

[BigmanPigman]

1. Nothing is "NORMAL" anymore since we have been living in

Bizzaro World for two years. Up is down, bad is good, cats chase dogs, etc.

[Hermit-The-Prog]

6. just breathe

"'Cause you can't jump the track,
we're like cars on a cable
And life's like an hourglass, glued to the table.
No one can find the rewind button, boys."

Somehow this young lady has helped me through this:

[susanna]

7. Perfect.

Just heard this the other day after a long time...so appropriate for us right now!

[PandoraAwakened]

2. Yep, not your grandma's or even your mama's Midterm anymore! n/t

[Johnny2X2X]

3. LV models may not apply

Polls maybe shouldn't have been adjusted for LV. Tens of millions of people are voting that wouldn't normally vote in any midterm. I think the pollsters really aren't sure what to make of all of it.

And Dem prognosticators are playing is safe because of how many times they've been burnt.

The blue wave could be massive tomorrow.

[YessirAtsaFact]

4. I see things pretty much like you do

If you have half a million new voters in Texas, that's huge for Beto.

If the 18 - 29 group doubles in size, that's great for Democrats, because they mostly hate Trump.

Somebody earlier mentioned this as more than a wave election. It could be a realignment election, like 1994 for the repugnants.

But nobody wants to go out on a limb, because of the 2016 results and all the polling that said Hilary had it in the bag.

[Johnny2X2X]

5. Take the states over!

The implications at the state and local levels could be even bigger than nationally. Hundreds of these state and local elections get decided by small margins. If there are a few points added to Dems this could be transformational to local and state governments.