If 'Polls are wrong', it could mean Democrats would take Senate AND even bigger majority in House

[ck4829]

Last edited Tue Nov 6, 2018, 02:50 PM - Edit history (1)

There are fewer ways for the polls to be wrong and it would mean continued Republican control.

But still, vote if you haven't.

[beachbum bob]

1. plenty of misapplication or outright ignoring of data with the pollsters model's to begin with.

Why I believe the democrat wave is way understated....

[YessirAtsaFact]

6. How do you choose likely voters in a polling model

When you have these monstrous numbers of new voters?

[beachbum bob]

8. you don't do it by ignoring it for starters. We have 2 years of special election data that could be

used for extrapolation, afterall, that is what model does in he first place. 2018 is a first of a kind election and pollsters using outdated methodology.

[YessirAtsaFact]

14. Good point

The 2018 mid terms are more like the special elections and VA state legislature elections than the 2016 election.

And 2018 is unique in the level of motivation for Democrats, especially in a mid term.

The number of new voters is unprecedented and can't be ignored.

[MiniMe]

2. The only way to make this happen is to get out and vote!

[Tom Rinaldo]

3. There are obvious ways polls can be wrong, the most basic is inaccurate modeling

Election polls have a problem, they can tell how the people they talk to feel, but that does not guarantee who will actually take the time to actually vote. Some demographic groups historically have been more dependable about actually showing up than others - regardless of how they answer the poll. Polls factor that in.

This year turnout seems to be heading off the chart so all the old models may be poor at predicting which type voters will show up in what numbers. The good news is that historically high turnout favors Democrats, so if the models polls used are off they are likely off in a way that under represents Democratic votes.

[Awsi Dooger]

18. Correct, and there are uncertainties both ways

High voter turnout can also mean the white uneducated types who normally don't prioritize midterms but may show up for Trump in far greater numbers. There is plenty of indication of that in Florida, where the white vote overperformed in early voting.

I wish we had seen more emphasis on turnout among independents, because they are breaking toward our side

[EleanorR]

4. funny how the "polls are wrong" thing started when

they wanted us to believe trump was legitimately elected

[malaise]

5. Started in Ohio with Bush in 2004

And then when investigations started, Rove's computer guy died in a plane crash

[YessirAtsaFact]

7. It started with Bush in Florida in 2000

He wasn't legitimately elected any more than Trump was.

[Polybius]

10. Days before Election Day 2000, didn't the polls show Bush up by three in FL on average?

The moron thought he had it in the bag and stopped campaigning there.

[Awsi Dooger]

16. High number of late undecideds in 2000

They broke toward Gore and he rightfully won other than the confusing butterfly ballot which disqualified so many votes that were obviously intended for Gore.

Actually the butterfly ballot got all the attention but there were several other awful ballot designs throughout Florida, causing double votes and always at the net expense of Gore.

Purged voter roll by Jeb. Katherine Harris shenanigans. Still the most disgusting example and outcome

[Polybius]

17. Exactly

Had their been no "hanging chads" or fraud, Gore wins FL by at least 1%.

[malaise]

15. True

With help from the Supreme Court

[EleanorR]

19. True Hard to keep up with this dirty cabal

They can't seem to get elected just letting people vote, can they?

[beachbum bob]

9. he was elected by electoral college, unfortunately thats our constitution

[ck4829]

12. Legitimacy is a social construct, it's fine to question his legitimacy

In fact, I'd say it's healthy to do so.

[beachbum bob]

13. 2018 is a vote on it methinks for starters jsut like all the special elections since he was elected

[allgood33]

11. That's what I am hoping!!

And it is very possible.