Wo! The Tennessee polls were SO off! One thing...

[LAS14]

... I learned this last week on The Newshour was that state polls are dramatically less reliable than national polls. Less money. Smaller numbers. But his was truly dramatic.

[customerserviceguy]

1. Drove through eastern Tennessee earlier today

It should have been solidly GOP territory, but I saw an equal amount of political signs for both candidates.

[GaYellowDawg]

2. I have a 43 minute commute in East Tennessee...

I saw all kinds of Democratic signs where I wouldn't expect them. I hoped that this indicated a shot at the Senate seat, but it sure didn't.

[customerserviceguy]

3. Tennessee

is a big state, I drove through the length of it back in April of this year, it would be interesting to see the county-by-county breakdown of the Senate vote.

I have to wonder if Bredesen's comments on Kavanaugh hurt his chances in heavily Democratic counties.

[GaYellowDawg]

5. I don't know about the Kavanaugh thing...

I don't think so. I would have voted against Blackburn no matter who we put up. I didn't like Bredesen's conciliatory stance towards Trump or his comments on Kavanaugh, but with the alternative being Blackburn? I made sure I got my butt to the polls to vote against that monster. And I think all Tennessee Democrats felt the same way. We were just outnumbered by fundamentalists and other Fox-viewing morons.

[Awsi Dooger]

4. A Las Vegas friend of mine made the largest political wager of his life on Blackburn

He has been telling me for 2 years that Tennessee is the new Alaska in terms of polling that badly overstates the Democrat.

I mentioned that here and elsewhere in recent months.

His reasoning was very sound: Once Tennessee became more red after 2006 the statewide polling really dwindled. But when polling has been done recently it was shockingly poor, always overstating the Democrat. The 2016 RCP average was less than half of Trump's actual margin. The poll margins were in the 10 range while Trump won by 26:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/tn/tennessee_trump_vs_clinton-5911.html

Fast forward to 2018 and he insisted the same dynamic would play out in this senate race. For a long time the betting odds were close to even. It was indeed a massive bargain. I didn't take enough advantage as I should have.