Two states Democrats have to assume will be a lock for the GOP in 2020: Ohio and Florida.

[Drunken Irishman]

[LisaL]

1. I sure as hell hope not.

Or we might as well start calling Trump two term president.

[MattP]

2. Not with prop 4

[drray23]

3. i would not assume that at all.

Especially Florida. Prop 4 passed which means that 1.5 millions former felons will now be able to vote. That is going to favor the democrats since so many were minorities.

[msongs]

4. not really dems lost florida governor and senator by less than 100 K votes each

maybe way less

[dalton99a]

5. No. Democrats cannot write them off.

[theglammistress]

6. Hard map to 270 without at least one of them.

I live in Ohio and I'm baffled by the results tonight. Easy re-election for Sherrod - super progressive. Most statewide races all went to GOP just the two supreme court justices went Dem.

I worked on the OH-1 campaign. The Democrat lost to an incumbent Republican that's held the office since I was in 7th grade... and now I'm 39.

[Ms. Toad]

12. Have you looked at how close Brown's race was?

No way Renacci should be that close. (I'm not suggesting fraud - but the fact that he came that close scares the bejeebers out of me.)

It is likely a factor that Brown supports some of Trump's trade policies (specifically tarriffs).

[edhopper]

7. Florida will have

a million more eligible voters. The ones the GOP have been trying to keep down for years.

[Roland99]

15. I wouldn't count on a considerable % of felons to start voting

[allgood33]

8. Make it three: Indiana

[budkin]

9. No way!

They are still 50/50 states and restoring voting rights to felons in FL is huge.

[StevieM]

10. Florida will be a hard purple state. It is absolutely winnable.

Ohio leans red but in a decisive victory we can pull is out. Iowa and Arizona too.

North Carolina is purple as well.

[Awsi Dooger]

14. Florida is definitely winnable

Both Florida races fall our way tonight if we had the same electorate as 2016.

Instead, we get a 39-22 conservative/liberal split in 2018 compared to 36/25 in 2016. That is all the difference. Young voters did not show up in Florida and Hispanics shifted significantly toward Republicans. Instead of Hillary carrying Hispanics 62-35 in Florida, Bill Nelson managed only 55-44 tonight.

The Hispanic shift nationally to 65-35 range was always fragile anyway. We can't depend on that going forward.

Unfortunately the white male shift to the right is marching on with no signs of slowing down or reversing. That changes the math in Florida and elsewhere.

[StevieM]

17. I doubt the media will acknowledge those HRC numbers among Latinos. They are still pretending that

she struggled to win/turn out the minority vote.

First they acted like she should have equaled Obama's turnout among black voters. Then they ignored the voter suppression laws implemented since John Kerry ran, and the fact that she improved on Kerry's performan in states that did not implement those laws.

Then they wouldn't acknowledge the debunking of election day exit polls for Latinos and recognize that she outdid Obama among them. And they never addressed the increase in Latino turnout to begin with.

They have the story they like and they are not going to deviate from it, not even with the numbers right here tonight and hitting us over the head.

[LAS14]

11. I'm counting on the demographic shift continuing in our favor. nt

[inwiththenew]

13. Florida No. Ohio Yes.

This state is fucked up. It has drifted so far right it's nuts.

[OneBro]

16. F*ck that!

Regroup, reload, and fight for every elected office and every f*cking vote! I don’t expect everyone to be willing to fight, but I hope the folks holding the white flags will at least help by getting the f*ck out of the way.

Yes, Gillum’s loss is heartbreaking, but he made those f*ckers sweat. If anything, I’d say he proved that Florida should absolutely always be in play.

[Blue_true]

18. I am not so sure about Florida.

DeSantis likely won't do as much damage as Rick Scott. I don't know how the AG race in Florida went, but at worse, it is another republican, the previous one was very unethical and active. Even with total republican control, Hillary barely lost Florida.

Some people in the party need to admit that democrats must field candidates that fit the state, I am afraid not that is middle of the road AND younger. Socialist still cause some Floridians to vote stupid, we can't nominate candidates that get tagged with that lable. Also, our nominee need to campaign across the state, not just in the big cities.

[EffieBlack]

19. Not sure about Florida - DeSantis is going to be a train wreck and Gillum will be a force

But Ohio looks bad. Republicans will control all of the statewide offices, including the Governor and Secretary of State.

[onenote]

20. Why so quick to write off Ohio

Brown won with a higher percentage of the vote this time than in 2012, when he underperformed Obama. And when you contrast the result in this Senate race to the 2016 race where Portman demolished Strickland by 20 plus percent, I view Ohio as not out of reach in 2020.