Phil Knight tried to buy the Oregon Governor's office

[Permanut]

for Trump groupie Knute Buehler. Gave two and a half million dollars to the candidate directly, and another million to the Republican Governors Association, in an attempt to unseat incumbent Democrat Kate Brown.

Didn't work. Enough Oregonians are not stupid enough to vote with the billionaires, the Bible thumpers and the KKK.

[gratuitous]

1. He certainly did

I had to talk a friend down at church on Sunday, and for a change, my analysis was spot on. While polling on the race was always close (3-5% in favor of Brown), the media kept reminding folks that the results were within the margin of error. What they didn't mention is that Brown's lead was baked in. She never trailed in a reputable poll, and Buehler couldn't get above 45%. Any one poll is a snapshot; the totality of all the polls gives a more complete picture.

In addition, Oregon's vote-by-mail system allows everyone - campaigns and media alike - to know how much of the electorate is participating at any time. About a week before Election Day, 21.6% of all ballots had been turned in, 27.4% of Democratic voters and 27% of Republican voters. That sounds close! Well, until you add in the raw numbers of registered Democrats and registered Republicans, and there are more Democrats than Republicans in Oregon. While some Democrats will vote Republican, some Republicans will also vote Democratic, so unless there's something really unusual happening, that's going to be a wash. What matters is that (for example) if are 110,000 registered Democrats and 100,000 registered Republicans (actual numbers are quite a bit larger), matching percentages means that Democrats are going to get 2,000 to 3,000 more voters casting ballots. For some reason, this little factual tidbit never quite got into the analysis, promoting the whoa-nelly-this-is-a-horse-race narrative.

[flibbitygiblets]

2. Now Kate Brown needs to do something about unlimited campaign donations in Oregon

[Permanut]

3. She was adamant about campaign finance reform..

in her acceptance speech. Fingers crossed that she follows through.