Why Democrats' Gain Was More Impressive Than It Appears (gerrymandering & wasted votes in urban area

[Demovictory9]

It wasn’t necessarily the night of either party’s dreams. The Democrats are poised to gain around 35 seats after Tuesday’s elections. Republicans seem likely to gain a few seats in the Senate, and they triumphed in some high-profile governor’s races.

But Democrats faced formidable structural disadvantages, unlike any in recent memory. Take those into account, and 2018 looks like a wave election, like the ones that last flipped the House in 2010 and 2006.

In the House, where the Democrats had their strongest showing, it’s impressive they managed to fare as well as they did. In a sense, Republicans had been evacuated to high ground, away from the beach.



At the beginning of the cycle, only nine Republicans represented districts that tilted Democratic in the previous two presidential elections. Even in a wave election, these are usually the only incumbents who are standing on the beach with a greater than 50 percent chance to lose.

There were 24 such Republicans in 2006, and 67 such Democrats in 2010.

Democrats had so few opportunities because of partisan gerrymandering and the tendency for the party to waste votes by winning with lopsided margins in urban areas. It gave Republicans a chance to survive a hostile national political climate that would have doomed prior parties. By some estimates, Republicans could have survived while losing the popular vote by nearly a double-digit margin.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/07/upshot/2018-midterms-blue-wave-democrats.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage

[msongs]

1. if we could move a few californians to WY, ND, SD, and AK lol. nt

[Demovictory9]

2. nooooooo. The weather. We couldnt survive

[John Fante]

3. A few other factors to consider:

1. The economy is doing really well right now. Not that the Repukes get much credit for it (hence their awful approval ratings), but it's harder to fire up voters when the unemployment rate is at 3.7% as opposed to 10%.

2. We're involved in no major wars. Obviously this is in stark contrast to 2006, when the disastrous fruits of the Iraq War were bearing fruit.

3. Repukes were as fired up as ever. They weren't suppressed at all and came out in droves.

4. The senate map overwhelmingly favored the Repukes, almost historically so. They can spin it however they want, but picking up a measly 2-3 seats is pathetic given how favorable the scenario was for them. The 2020 senate map will be much more brutal for these assholes.

The Democrats won the popular vote by 8.5% - a bigger margin than the 2014, 2006, and 2010 wave elections. At parity, they are simply the larger of the two parties. If we can maintain this enthusiasm (as we did after 2006) we will annihilate Trump in the 2020 election.

[Rizen]

4. We've got to take control of the government and fix this!

[Demovictory9]

5. we took control of one chamber! That's a start. can we new control more states and local offices

[Cha]

6. KR!