Arizona and Florida Senate seats are still within reach...

[LincolnRossiter]

Is anyone on the ground in either state able to provide insight into how the mail-in and provisional tally looks. I’m able to view updated counts on NYT’s tracker and the Secretary of State pages, but it’s not perfectly clear to me where the outstanding votes are (which counties these voters are in) or whom they advantage.

Scott’s lead is now down to just 27,000 votes or .32% (from .38) and De Santis’ is down to .57 from .7 (so just .07% away from triggering an auto recount). Nelson and Gillum are still in it.

In AZ, Sinema is down by about 17,000 votes or .98%. I read that they still have betwern 500,000 and 800,000 early, provisional, and mail-in ballots to vote—I’m assuming mostly in the two large counties that Sinema carried. So there’s reason for guarded hope that the Trumpublicans will only net one seat.

As an aside, the green candidate in AZ (whom I realize withdrew) and the reform candidate in Florida both received enough votes to just about erase the current Dem margins (assuming most of their voters would have voted and gone Dem.

Sick of those guys.

[AlexSFCA]

1. but those ballots are coming from red Maricopa county

but who knows, don’t hold your breath, I wouln’t bet on this one. Green party candidate got quite a few votes in AZ. And she is a balck woman so it is quite possible many of those votes would be democratic.

[LincolnRossiter]

2. The Sec State's official tally has Sinema up by 8,200 votes in Maricopa

right now. I’m not sure how patterns differ between early/mail-in voters and same day voters, but that has to lend some hope. And the county has been reliably Republican, but that hasn’t meant too much this election cycle. And Trump won it by less than four points. If observed patterns of his erosion of Republican support in close districts holds up, Sinema might be in good shape.

[link:https://results.arizona.vote/#/featured/4/0|

[PandoraAwakened]

13. Misnomer to call Maricopa "red"

AlexSFCA, for a better understanding of Maricopa County, which has been controlled for years by Republicans using deceptive voter suppression tactics, but is not indicative of what the county is as a whole, see:

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100211403715

This will give you a better idea of what is actually going on in Arizona right now as the scab is being ripped off by the first Democratic County Recorder that Maricopa has had in a very long time.

[Awsi Dooger]

3. Sinema has much greater chance than Nelson

For reference, Sinema is trading at 21 cents (out of 100) on Predictit, while Nelson is at 5 cents.

https://www.predictit.org/legacy/Browse/Group/54/Senate

Sinema has some chance but it looks doubtful because Maricopa County simply isn't blue enough, for a county containing a major city. I think it will steadily turn more blue but right now Sinema is netting fewer votes there than she is losing in a much less populated area like Mohave County.

[DarthDem]

5. There Are Also Votes Out from Pima County

. . . which is heavily blue. Sinema has an excellent chance.

[PandoraAwakened]

14. Sinema's chance no longer doubtful

Predictit now trading Sinema at 92 cents:

https://www.predictit.org/legacy/Market/3812/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-race-in-Arizona-in-2018


For a better understanding of what is actually occurring in Arizona, see:

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100211403715

[LoverofDawgz]

4. just say it. they spoiled it again.

As an aside, the green candidate in AZ (whom I realize withdrew) and the reform candidate in Florida both received enough votes to just about erase the current Dem margins (assuming most of their voters would have voted and gone Dem.

Sick of those guys.

Not half as much as I.

[DesertRat]

6. The GOP is suing to suppress vote counting in AZ

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100211391939

[LincolnRossiter]

7. Let's see how things look after the first tally is released tomorrow evening...

I’m optimistic about Sinema—must less so about Nelson, Gillum, and Abrams. And just because I got the question earlier, Gillum’s concession isn’t legally binding. If the margin ends up below .5% (still at .57) a recount will be initiated unless he refuses. It’s a long shot, but fuck it. They’re still counting votes so I’ll remain optimistic.

[Blue_Tires]

8. I'm pulling the hardest for Sinema

In addition to being the future Mrs. Tires someday, she should be celebrating victory right fuckin' now were it not for the Greens...

[LincolnRossiter]

9. Well McSally's lead is only 17,000 right now and the Green candidate (Green) has almost 39,000. It's

maddening. These people have no soul. How can you call yourself a liberal and environmentalist and constantly help Republicans win statewide races? Why didn’t that dumbass withdraw before the ballot was printed? Sinema would be leading right now with just half those votes.

[Awsi Dooger]

10. Digging for info on outstanding Arizona vote

Seemed fairly promising, based on this new article:

https://www.azfamily.com/news/outstanding-early-ballots-could-benefit-arizona-s-democratic-candidates/article_2713d454-e310-11e8-8895-1b1a16c5b09d.html

"Garrett Archer, a senior analyst with the Arizona Secretary of State's Office estimates about 12.5 percent of voters were millennials.

"That's a fairly sizable increase from what we normally see in midterm elections, where it's closer to 8 percent," Archer said. "So 18- to 34-years-olds did absolutely come out in this election.”

He says the trends show these voters preferred mail-in ballots, and young people typically lean left.

<snip>

“Several prior days before that, the Democrats had done an excellent job turning out their voters and mailing in ballots, and that gap had closed significantly,” said Archer. “The party gap in Maricopa county on Election Day had a 10 point advantage to the Republicans."

<snip>

“I wouldn't be surprised if that first Thursday at 5 p.m. drop was a little more favorable to some of the Democratic candidates,” Archer said.

That means those close races are not over yet.

"No, not by a long shot,” said Archer.

[LincolnRossiter]

12. Thanks! Some great info.

Hopefully this one breaks our way.

[Awsi Dooger]

11. Acquainting with the new Arizona

This is junkie stuff but some might be interested. I've done political math for a long time but not much detail into Arizona. Obviously it's a changing state so I wanted to know more about the counties and areas within them. This uselectionatlas site always has political nerds who do some helpful compiling and comparison. This is a breakdown of Maricopa County from 2012 to 2016. Not really anything to highlight but if we knew which cities within Maricopa held the outstanding vote it might be instructive. Trend is blue in this major county but many red areas:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=277087.0