Down two, California Republicans could lose up to four more House seats

[DonViejo]

By MICHAEL FINNEGAN
NOV 08, 2018 | 3:00 AM

California Republicans lost two House seats in Tuesday’s midterm election and could surrender more as tens of thousands of ballots are counted in four other contests that remain too close to call.

The party has an exceedingly small chance of holding the seats of Reps. Dana Rohrabacher and Jeff Denham, historical voting patterns suggest. Two other Republicans, Rep. Mimi Walters and Young Kim of Fullerton, hold thin leads over their opponents that could also vanish.

The reason is simple: Early voters, often older white Californians who start mailing in their ballots weeks before election day, lean Republican, and later voters, many of them young and minority, tend to prefer Democrats.

With extremely rare exceptions, close races in California shift in Democrats’ favor — typically by 2 percentage points— as the later ballots are counted, according to Political Data, a firm that tracks voter trends.

“This is as dependable as the tides,” said Paul Mitchell, the firm’s vice president.

more
https://www.latimes.com/politics/la-me-pol-california-house-election-20181108-story.html

[Blue_true]

1. I really think that the late mailin ballot dynamic is going to play out in Arizona and Florida.

It has been consistent all this year. Late ballots tilt heavily democratic and change races.

[Wellstone ruled]

2. Same pattern here in Nevada,

when it comes to early voting. But,not the last two cycles. Noticed the Minority Voters were out in massive numbers these two cycles.

The Pundits are so out of touch with reality. Love the way they tried to shut down the Youth Vote,it did not work,in fact,the youth vote was up 10-30% here.

[David__77]

3. In 2010, Kamala Harris was behind her Republican opponent initially.

This was in the race for California attorney general - she ended up winning.

That year, Democratic Rep. Jim Costa was behind by three points initially and ended up winning by 3.6%. That's probably a more extreme example.

I would not be surprised if Walters, Denham, and Kim all lost. I think Rohrabacher is definitely gone.