18:00 EST UPDATE. Sinema adds 7,000 more to lead *** Sinema's percentage of late mail in 58.2 %***

[grantcart]

Last edited Thu Nov 8, 2018, 09:12 PM - Edit history (2)

Details to follow

https://results.arizona.vote/#/featured/4/0


Sinema 914,243

McSally 912,137

In the last 24 hours 129,757 votes were added.

There are 345,000 ballots left in Maricopa and an unknown amount in other counties but Pima should offset red counties

next update in 24 hours

KEY STATISTIC

AZ cuts off mail in vote on 10/31. All early mail in votes after that day must be walked in at the polls. (My last canvassing the remaining Democrats were mostly mail in voters that wanted to walk in their ballots to make sure they were counted.

At the end of the regular voting Sinema and McSally were within one percent at 49/48 percent.

The county recorders update their votes every 24 hours. "Late Early Mail in Ballots" have to go through the same two step process as other mail in ballots. They have to scrutinize the outer envelope and "accept it" and then it can be counted.

In the last 24 hours a total of 124,179 votes were added to the Secretary of State totals and 80,031 of them went to Sinema or 58.2%. This confirms estimates by the Sinema campaign and if it continues we are likely to hit 2.5% plurality over McSally.

We should know the outcome of this election in 24 hours.

You can watch poll workers working on live feeds.

https://www.democraticunderground.com/10385575

We got another update from other counties 9 minutes ago.

The percentage of win went down from 65% to 58% but our lead went up from 2.000 votes to 8859

[W_HAMILTON]

1. Here is the link to the AZ SOS website:

https://results.arizona.vote/#/featured/4/0

[Jeffersons Ghost]

65. This reads like an outdated O.P. check this link:

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100211392815

[California_Republic]

2. Arizona US Senate

[oasis]

75. "If it's what you say, I love it"

[NurseJackie]

82. How's "Sinema" pronounced? The same as the word "cinema"?

Or is it like "sign" and "ma" ... "sign-ma"?

[Wheezy]

83. Like cinema. :)

[NurseJackie]

98. Thank you!

[AZ8theist]

100. And It's Kyrsten

As in "keer ston" ..
Not "Kris-ton"

If anybody wanted to know....

[leftieNanner]

3. This would be spectacular!!!

Now we just need Nelson to win in Florida!

And who knows, maybe if there's a runoff in Mississippi??

[dsc]

4. there is a run off in MS but we won't be winning it

MS is a hugely GOP state.

[leftieNanner]

8. Yeah, prolly

But a girl can dream, can't she?

[Squinch]

14. The two candidates were neck and neck on election night though.

[Hermit-The-Prog]

22. guardian showing R41.5 - D40.6 in MS

That is not a blowout by any measure.

[former9thward]

29. There were two Republicans running.

Together they had 58% of the vote.

[Hermit-The-Prog]

35. ain't necessarily additive in a runoff

[dsc]

32. the other candidate was a GOPer and those votes will not be going to Espy.

[Hermit-The-Prog]

38. if you could always calculate, there'd be no reason to vote

[gratuitous]

31. The smart money said that about Alabama, too

I'm content to do a run-off, if that's what Mississippi law requires. Let's see what happens . . .

[dsc]

33. well if the current Senator there decides to molest children we have a chance

I figure that is highly unlikely.

[The_Counsel]

39. We Thought That About Alabama, Too...

...and yet...

http://www.sunjournal.com/jones-upends-moore-in-alabama-senate-race/

[dsc]

47. if the current senator decides to molest children then we might have a chance

but I won't be holding my breath.

[True Blue American]

78. I was thinking the same thing.:)

[Lucky Luciano]

10. 100% of McDaniels supporters go to the thug.

[dlk]

5. Dems Do Best When All of the Votes are Counted

[smirkymonkey]

12. Dems win when republicans don't CHEAT!

Slimy bastards!

[Small-Axe]

6. Seeing Green makes me see Red

[grantcart]

11. Me too but I think that the majority of these green votes are Republicans that

wouldn't vote for McSally and didn't like Sinema but didn't want to no vote.

The Green candidate had zero exposure until she pulled out but I met many Republicans who said that they couldn't support either.

They would have voted for any third party candidate.

[dbackjon]

16. Wrong

I argued with quite a few "Progressives" that refused to vote for Sinema. Said she wasn't "Left" enough.

Those are the type of fucking idiots that gave us Trump, and would have given Sinema a much bigger lead.

FUCK THE GREEN PARTY.

[yardwork]

23. That makes me so angry.

[calimary]

37. Me too!

Those who insist on Perfect-Or-Bust when they could get almost everything they want and hope for - from the candidate who’s Merely Good. But the Merely Good is not good enough for them.

I don’t know what kind of world they live in, but “Perfect Anything” is little more than chasing rainbows. I’m 65 and have voted in lots of elections by now, and I haven’t seen a “perfect” candidate yet.

[JonLP24]

73. She was the most conservative Democrat in the House

McSally is only a little more conservative. I don't think we get most of those green votes based on that.

[Tarheel_Dem]

30. Ditto!

Last edited Fri Nov 9, 2018, 02:48 PM - Edit history (1)

(G)etting
(R)epublicans
(E)lected
(E)very
(N)ovember......

[Proud Liberal Dem]

85. +1

Remembering this.

[LiberalFighter]

87. Love it! Truth

[grantcart]

52. I did 18 days of canvassing and didn't meet any Greens that were voting for Green

and met a couple of dozen Republicans who weren't going to vote for McSally but didn't like Sinema. Not one person could identify the Green Party candidate by name.

More significant than anonymous anecdotal bits is the consistent polling, both Sinema and public polls that consistently showed McSally holding only 85-88% of the GOP vote. With 800K GOP ballots in if only 3% of that vote were disatisfied GOP voters that would exceed half of the total Green vote.

[LiberalFighter]

86. They are brain dead.

They would probably say pee isn't yellow.

[sheshe2]

7. 😲 OMG

[In It to Win It]

9. YEEAAAHHHHHHHHHH!!!!

[rogue emissary]

13. Woohoo!

[octoberlib]

15. That Green party vote total makes me sick

[In It to Win It]

20. Right! I don't know why people waste their votes

[Cha]

21. I know.. they learned NOTHING.

[Gothmog]

17. Yeah

Link to tweet

[Cha]

24. Surreal! Thank You, Goth!

[ChazInAz]

43. I know McSally

She'll doubtless behave true to form by saying something along the lines of: "When the vote's that close, you're supposed to give it to the republican."

[lamp_shade]

18. Yikes! Thanks for the link.

[Sunsky]

19. OMG this is awesome!

[SaschaHM]

25. I hope those remaining ballots look good for Sinema. nt

[Sugarcoated]

26. I really hope that lyin McSally gets the boot print on her ass she deserves

[FreeRunning]

27. Wow!

but do i get my hopes up?!?

[Cha]

28. OMG!! I used to live in Phoenix and I

went to school in Tucson

Please.. Thanks grant for the HOPEFUL NEWS!

[padfun]

50. I went to school a few miles south of Tucson

Buena High School. Class of 73.

Lived in Tucson for a year after that, then a 3 years stint in the Military.
Then lived in Phoenix for 10 years.

I left Arizona in 1986. Way too much heat especially for a construction worker.

[Cha]

53. Yeah, AZ does have

the Sun Blaring down on it especially South where we were.

I loved it back then.. I was gone in 1967.. Married a guy from San Diego.

I miss the Mexican food in AZ and California!

[Owl]

34. Excellent!

[Bleacher Creature]

36. BOOM!!!!! YES!!!!!

[SaschaHM]

40. If Sinema takes this.... McSally is down for the count in 2020 and a Trumpier candidate (Ward) might

be the nominee. McCain's old seat will definitely be in play.

[grantcart]

59. We are hoping to draft Mark Kelly who would win in a landslide.

McSally is finished. She is absolutely hated in her home district and couldn't run a town hall meeting without hundreds of women showing up to pester her about the ACA.

Her only hope was to go Senate. The only reason that she won the primary is that they ran two nut jobs (Arpaio and Ward). The Arpaio campaign was subsidized by McSally (their signs were identical from the same print shop) so that she could get by Ward who is Trumpier than Trump

[SaschaHM]

61. Any idea on who the Repugs might run?

I really don't think we've heard the last of Ward and it really seemed like a folly imo for them to appoint a placeholder to the McCain seat.

[grantcart]

63. They did appoint a place holder Sen Jon Kyl

Ward will run again and she could win the primary.

The only Republican that could stand a chance is Gov Ducey who just won a big victory. He could run without giving up his office.

[SaschaHM]

64. Yeah, I said that it was a folly for them to appoint one.

They should have raised the profile of someone primed to run againt and more importantly for the GOP, kiss Trump's ass for the next 2 years. I'm sure Ward is going to do whatever she can to get the Trump ringing endorsement before the primary and I really don't see him going out on a ledge for McConnell's/AZGOP non-insane choice again if McSally loses.

[grantcart]

67. Got it. That's why Ducey didn't want to appoint a high profile guy. He wants to run for it himself

As for Ward she actually tried too hard and Trump never endorsed her.


She paid to stay at Mar a Lago and got a picture of her with Trump and they told her not to use it as an endorsement.

She did use it in her campaign material and a couple of weeks before the primary Trump and surrogates made a high profile scold against her to point out that Trump had endorsed McSally and that Ward broke her word.

[sharedvalues]

41. Booyah

[brettdale]

42. latest

916380 Sinema
914369 McSally
43056 Green

[watoos]

44. Bwahahaha

Those machines didn't flip enough votes. I find it amazing that Dems seem to win with paper ballots.

Maybe we all should vote absentee or early paper, bypass the machines.

[Kaleva]

45. I really enjoy lurking at FR when news like this breaks.

[LBM20]

46. Is Maricopa red, blue, or purple?

[Kaleva]

49. I believe it to be blue.

"The lawsuit seemed to signal Republicans' anxiety over Thursday's expected posting of additional results from Maricopa County, the most populous area of the state, where Sinema has dominated so far. "

https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/elections/2018/11/07/arizona-senate-republicans-sue-county-recorders-election-martha-mcsally-kyrsten-sinema-adrian-fontes/1925719002/

[grantcart]

58. Phoenix strong blue, suburbs strong red

Trump won it by 1.5%


The outstanding number that stood out was the extremely high negatives for McSally.

Sinema had a 2% lead at the end of regular voting but a 6% lead in the after election vote

I think that what they were really worried about was the overwhelming GOTV effort that the Party put out.

This is the wisdom of Perez's strategy. Rather than putting everything into media, like the Republicans did.

They sent in 55 full time field operatives to work on GOTV in the state of AZ. They were estimating that it would end with a 3% margin of victory. Looks like we could hit that.

[Thekaspervote]

55. My daughter has been in maricopa for 15 yrs.. it's purple leaning more blue all the time

It did not go over well when mcsally bashed McCain for getting sick at “such an inconvenient time.” Among other terrible comments. Althou I’m not a fan, McCain will always be Arizona’s favorite son!!

[grantcart]

57. Phoenix is heavily Democratic and the suburbs are heavily Republican

Trump won it by 1.5% but that is probably because he won independents who may have been more anti Hillary than pro Trump

[Awsi Dooger]

72. That's the problem

This is hardly Broward County where any additional votes are likely to be pro-blue.

Mariocopa is trending blue overall but many areas are heavily red. It depends where the votes comes from. We could see some sizable swings in either direction, if these results are released in stagger.

[brettdale]

48. Sinema leads by 2107 votes

Heres hoping this will keep increasing.

[honest.abe]

51. Fantastic!

[grantcart]

54. It appears that Pima County just came in.

At 5:00 AZ time Sinema's lead was 2106

It is now 8,859

https://results.arizona.vote/#/featured/4/0

[bdamomma]

56. oh I hope she

Sinema wins.

[mr_lebowski]

60. Up by 9600 now, a full .5%

CMON KYRSTEN!!!

[grantcart]

62. and the rate for all of these increases is a steady 58%

the pool of votes to overturn Sinema is shrinking and she will have to get more than 60% of the remaining votes and that is not going to happen with 75% of the votes coming from Maricopa

[mr_lebowski]

66. Yeah Baby!!!

Mine was one of those late day-of votes ...

Go Kyrsten! (and Nelson and Gillum and Abrams!!!)

[Johnny2X2X]

68. Almost 11000 now

Pulling away steadily. Anything that can derail it?

[grantcart]

71. Mine is showing 9610, what is your link?

here is my link

https://results.arizona.vote/#/featured/4/0


McSally would have to get 60% of the remaining vote but the problem is that the rest of the remaining votes comes from counties that support Sinema.

345,000 are from Maricopa county (probably 70% of the total).

Sinema has always led in Maricopa but in the last 24 hours the additional "Late Early Voting Mail in" she took

47% of the vote. However in the last 24 hours she took 64% of the vote increasing her lead from a negative 17,000 to a plus 9610. There is no reason to think that there will be much of a change in that number but we will know in 24 hours. If Sinema increases her lead the race is over.

[llmart]

69. This would be a fantastic win for us.

[krakfiend]

70. Hell yesss!!!

Now hopefully bill Nelson and gillum can also pick up more votes too

[Blue_true]

74. Sinema is doing better than I guessed.

I had estimated that she would run +4-6% on the uncounted blue county ballots, but she is running over +8%.

[Cha]

76. Good to know.. Thank You!

Wonder when we'll know for sure

[Blue_true]

80. Maybe this afternoon, should become clear.

Some people are worried about the 325,000 uncounted Maricopa ballots. Their argument is that conservative voters may have mailed them on Election Day, handed them in or dropped them into boxes. That assumption goes against what has been seen in every single special election this year, and past elections. Conservative voters get their ballots in early, more liberal voters wait until last minute. I would not be surprised to see Sinema's win rate increase with the 325,000 ballots, at the worse, if McSally goes against trends and wind them, she most likely won't make up ground. So my guess, we will know the winner by 8pm eastern time, my belief is that will be Sinema.

[Cha]

81. Thank You, Blue_true

[Tom Rivers]

88. Didn't Sinema win the Election Day non-mail/non-drop off vote in Maricopa?

I'm not sure if any early vote was factored into that, but they were about even in Maricopa with the Tuesday night vote count, with Sinema a little bit ahead. If a lot of the votes still left follow that trend, it'll be difficult for her to be overtaken, though I admit I don't know a ton about Arizona voting and how late ballots like this tend to trend (though this is not a normal election year, and from what I saw McSally was a weaker candidate than GOP normally fields out there and Sinema was a stronger candidate than Dems normally field out there).

[Blue_true]

91. I am going a lot on trends from all special elections this year.

Democrats have made up ground with late votes, even in deep red districts. Arizona may be an exception, but my guess is it won't be. Non Cuban Hispanics tend to vote less than African Americans, AA tend to vote late, my guess is that would be mirrored by non Cuban Hispanics. Admittedly a lot of guessing, but I was right when I predicted that Sinema would quickly eliminate the 16,000 vote advantage that MCSally came into yesterday with, Sinema pick up 26,000 more votes over the day. One reason when my confidence that Sinema will win is that it is inconceivable to me that republican leaning voters, a group now driven by hate and fear, would wait until the last possible day to mail, dropoff or handin their early ballots, that just seems inconsistent with their philosophy on life, a philosophy where they need to be certain that there ballot will be counted.

[LittleGirl]

77. I voted early for Simema

Yay!

[ananda]

79. That is fantastic!

The judge will rule on the lawsuit today.

But I think Sinema will still win it!

[krawhitham]

84. more counted lead at 9,163

[dalton99a]

89. Kick

[Scurrilous]

90. K&R

[ffr]

92. This is what democracy looks like.

[In It to Win It]

93. Any updates?

I don’t see any new information being reported!!?!???!?

[grantcart]

94. Maricopa will release again at 5 AZ(MOUNTAIN)

Sinema increases her lead then it's over, there will no be enough ballots for her to come back

[rurallib]

95. Thank you much for that update - about 2.5 hours by my reckoning

[Tom Rivers]

96. What time will GOP lawsuit be decided?

Before or after that time? What happens to votes already counted, is it possible they could question those? And does anyone know the amount of votes GOP is trying to dispute (all of which are probably from Sinema strongholds and none from deep red parts of the state).

[grantcart]

99. Friday but

1) it only effects about 5000 votes

2) there is no reason to believe Republicans will win, the issue is nonsensical, they want stop counties from calling voters where there have been problems reconciling signatures.

3) No reason to believe that it would effect Dems more than Republicans.

Not likely to affect outcome.

[LeftInTX]

97. Looks like Simena might win

I'll take your word about Maricopa Co.

Under what conditions can McSally trigger a recount?

[elmac]

101. hmmm