General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsWhy does Predictit only have Nelson at 19%?
edit: the exact percentage changes FAST.
It sounded pretty promising to me with all the Broward votes yet to be counted.
https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/2999/Will-Bill-Nelson-be-re-elected-to-the-US-Senate-in-Florida-in-2018
Beakybird
(3,333 posts)elleng
(130,865 posts)marylandblue
(12,344 posts)There is conflicting information on how many uncounted votes Broward actually has.
Awsi Dooger
(14,565 posts)That's not a great answer but the best I have. I wager there all the time but am not involved in this market. I would favor Nelson at 4/1 return as opposed to Scott giving 1/4 but not enough to be risking some of my winnings from Tuesday.
Similar to sports I like foundational variables and systems. They allow me to play early without second guessing and wait for the result. This is more like a halftime wager in football, after you've already been able to view some of the action and then make a judgment in progress. That's never my style because now too many variables and subjectivity are required.
During the Gregoire/Rossi recount I found a Washington state site that was unbelievably precise, forecasting smack to the number in each county because they knew exactly how many votes were at issue in each one. That was the only time I have wagered on a recount. And I have never seen anything close to that sophistication subsequently.