Location of outstanding votes in Arizona senate

[Awsi Dooger]

This is the best breakdown I've seen. Looks promising other than very high number of early ballots that were dropped off in Maricopa County on election day. They probably break Republican, like election day voting itself. Kornacki just had a segment on MSNBC indicating the same thing, and that those ballots will be counted late. He said Sinema needs to run up the score the next couple of days and then withstand the count from the votes dropped off on election day.

Still 54,000 votes remaining from Pima County (Tucson), which helps since it is a liberal leaning area and where Sinema is from.

https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/elections/2018/11/08/how-many-votes-left-count-martha-mcsally-kyrsten-sinema-senate-race-maricopa-county/1934817002/

According to officials:

* Maricopa County has 345,000 ballots to be counted. That includes 150,000 early ballots received before Election Day and 195,000 ballots that were either early ballots dropped off on Election Day, provisional ballots, or out-of-precinct ballots cast on Election Day.

* Pima County has 54,000 votes to be counted. This includes about 36,000 early ballots and 18,000 provisional votes. Pima County Registrar of Voters Chris Roads said the Recorder's Office will begin processing provisional ballots Friday morning.

* Pinal County has an estimated 31,800 early ballots still to count, said Michele Forney, elections director. There are 6,800 provisionals left to count, she said, plus about 25,000 early ballots.

* Coconino County has about 10,600 votes left to count, per the elections department there. Those votes won't get counted until Friday.

* Ballots remaining to be counted in the rest of the state total 4,600 in Apache County, 1,700 in Cochise County, 580 in La Paz, an estimated 8,000 in Mohave County, 4,000 in Navajo County, 2,200 in Santa Cruz County, 6,100 in Yavapai County and 3,100 in Yuma County, according to Garrett Archer of the Secretary of State's office.

[BlueintheSTL]

1. Here is a tweet from someone regarding Maricopa County outstanding ballots

Link to tweet

However I heard from a poster on here (forgot who -- maybe he can chime in) that lives in Arizona and canvassed for Sinema who said that a lot of Dems dropped off there early ballot because they did not think it would arrive on time or because they just the assurance of handing it someone at the polls. I do not think the election day drop offs will tilt as heavy for McSally as people think.

[Awsi Dooger]

2. Interesting...thank you

You have made great contributions in such a brief time here

[BlueintheSTL]

4. Thank you!

Here is another tweet from the guy. He messed up the Pinal County numbers however (tonight numbers should be Was, while Was should be Tonight's numbers). She underperformed all over tonight including the batch released by Pinal County where she only led 51-49 (She is currently getting 56% overall there).

Link to tweet

[sweetloukillbot]

3. Pima and Coconino will break heavy for Sinema

The smaller ones will go for McSally, but not enough to make up for Pima and Coconino. If Maricopa stays roughly the same as it has all along, Sine a wins.

[Awsi Dooger]

5. Need to avoid an unusually bad split in Maricopa

That seems to be the only danger

[radius777]

6. Repub panicking (attempts to sue) imo is indication

that their numbers are telling them it doesnt look good.

Link to tweet

Ingraham is probably getting her info from high-level McSally camp sources.

Dems need to start paying more attention to this race as there seems to be alot of moving parts to it, can't let the GOP steal it (by trying to disqualify ballots) at the last second.