What Beto Won The Senate hopeful lost his race to Cruz, but reanimated the Texas Democratic Party

[DemocratSinceBirth]

They said it couldn’t be done and, in the end, they were right. Texas had been a one-party state for years. It’s true that the state’s motley, virtually nonexistent opposition party, hardly worthy of the same name as its national counterpart, had put up strong showings in the state in the last few presidential elections, and that the incumbent was a highly polarizing figure whose naked ambition and peculiar personal style caused many in his own party to disparage him behind closed doors, but none of that was enough. That November, Republican John Tower lost to sitting Senator Lyndon Baines Johnson 41 to 58 percent.

But that performance, which looked pathetic to outsiders, looked like an opportunity to the Republican Party of Texas, because things work differently under one-party rule. In the special election next year to fill LBJ’s seat after his elevation to the vice presidency, Tower ran again, caught his opponent flat-footed, and narrowly beat him. Over the years, the state changed, and so did the nation. Republicans started running, and then winning. And here we are.

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https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2018/11/beto-orourke-lostbut-profoundly-changed-texas/575521/

I really like the cut of Beto's jib.

[calimary]

1. I do, too. His career is NOT over, by any means.

[onetexan]

3. More like it's just beginning

I see much bigger things for Beto.

[dalton99a]

4. "Republican House Speaker Joe Straus strongly hinted that he had voted for O'Rourke"

That speaks volumes about his appeal

[Gothmog]

6. Joe Straus is a good person despite being a republican

[dalton99a]

2. The difference between O'Rourke and previous Democratic candidates is that people liked him a lot

O’Rourke was a Texas liberal, a member of a long-standing political tradition. The main difference between O’Rourke and previous Democratic candidates is that people liked him a lot. When he spoke to crowds, he talked of our obligations to one another, patriotism, public service, and investment in public projects. It may have been momentarily shocking for political reporters to hear a Texan running for office talking about marijuana, or the principle of universal health care. But 53 percent of Texans support legalizing pot, according to polling from the University of Texas, and 46 percent say that they support a “single national health insurance system run by the government.” A broad semiautomatic weapons ban only pulls 40 percent, but you could make a case that Cruz is the one who’s more out of step—a significant majority of Texans favor requiring criminal and mental-health background checks for all gun sales, including private ones.

Issues have never been the issue for Texas Democrats, just the same as Democrats nationally. Their problem has been putting together a coalition, and O’Rourke’s charisma and positivity gave people on both the left and in the middle a reason to invest in him. After the election, Republican House Speaker Joe Straus, hunted for years by the far right, strongly hinted that he had voted for O’Rourke. He warned that the “Republican Party and the state of Texas are moving in opposite directions.”

That points to the delightful wrongness of another common line on the Texas Senate race this year. In April, Josh Kraushaar wrote in the National Journal that O’Rourke was demonstrating the “limits of base-first politics,” and that a much better model for Democratic success could be found in Phil Bredesen, the old blue-dog centrist running for Senate in Tennessee. Bredesen’s most notable act as governor was kicking a lot of poor people off Medicaid.

Well, Bredesen got pulverized—he lost Tennessee, a state that has elected Democrats a lot more recently than Texas, by more than 10 points, which is just a little better than how bland centrist Democrats have traditionally performed in Texas. The conventional wisdom about what Texans want is plainly incorrect. Which is not particularly surprising, really. Texans like big personalities and frank talk—the last Democrat the state elected, after all, was Ann Richards—or as Cruz himself likes to say, “bright bold colors, and not pale pastels.”

[Awsi Dooger]

7. Exit poll revealed higher approval of Beto than of Democratic Party

Not surprising. But it reached a 10 point net approval for Beto at 52-42 while same exit poll had Democratic Party one point favorable at 49-48.

With Hillary it was the opposite. She fared worse than the party favorability. Her national exit poll approval was 43-55 negative while Democratic Party was 47-49.

BTW, one thing that always stands out from these polls is that the approval is higher among actual voters than pre-election polling would lead you to believe. Cruz had a net favorable in Texas at 50-48.

The one that shocked me was West Virginia. In looking at that exit poll it looked impossible for Manchin to win. They hated everything about the Democatic Party and loved everything about the Republican Party. Not one thing lined up with a Manchin win.

Well, except one category. The voters had favorable opinion of Manchin by 50-46 while they hated Morrissey at 38-57.

That race in West Virginia was not won by Manchin. It was lost by Republicans during the primary process. If they nominated anyone with even a semi-competent approval rating, Manchin was gone. I remember they favored Morrissey, believing Blankenship could not win in November after the coal mine scandal.

In looking at those West Virginia numbers it stood out even more to me that it is imperative to nominate a likable person in 2020. The Manchin numbers in 2018 looked every bit as disastrous as Trump numbers in the 2016 exit poll. But both prevailed because the opponent had such low favorables.

[LeftInTX]

8. I agree

It was his likeability and energy.

Boy his energy! He was willing to go every where! He held a rally in my precinct! It was during early voting. GOTV

In the summer, he showed up at a sports bar next to my local WalMart.

He visited a park that was not a popular place. Of course if Beto shows up at the basketball courts and no politician has ever been there, you take notice!

[Sneederbunk]

5. Senator Cornhole now sleeps with one eye open.