* Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania never really left, not when all 3 reported a gap of 9% or less between conservatives and liberals in the exit 2016 exit poll. Previously no state at 10% or less in that category had voted for the Republican, well not since I began following in 1992. Normally a gap of less than 10% means a Democratic win of at least 4%
* Ohio no longer a swing state, not with 80% whites and liberals down to 20% compared to the national number of 26%
* Nevada and Colorado trending our way and no reason it won't steadily continue, other than a midterm cycle sharply favoring the other side
* Arizona was like ringing a bell when it reported an amazing 27% liberals in the 2016 exit poll. I was shocked at that number and emphasized it here countless times. Subjectivity is out the window upon a number like that. Go to the state begging you to come. Arizona 2016 was the first state I have ever seen that featured more than the national average in both liberals and conservatives. What a polarized state. That's why I don't fault the GOP for believing that some of Maricopa late votes had to fall sharply their way, even though it hasn't happened.
* Republicans will be all over Arizona, trying to figure out what happened and how to reverse the trend. We can't sleep there. But the positive aspect is that so little of Arizona is rural, or at least classified as rural. The exit polls always allow only 5-6% of Arizona voters as rural. That is an amazingly low number. The national number in a presidential year is in the 17% range.
We were probably late in prioritizing Arizona, given those low rural numbers compared to 52% suburban and 43% urban
Nevada is closer to the national average at 15% rural
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