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Sun Nov 18, 2018, 04:55 PM

Ohio, Colorado may no longer be swing states

WASHINGTON - The 2018 midterms remade Congress for the next two years, but they also hinted at a changing electoral map for the next presidential race. Broad gaps in exit poll numbers combined with the results for November 6th, suggest that the battleground states of 2020 may look a bit different than they did in the 2016 campaign.

Three numbers jump out of the national House exit poll data: The Republican edge with white voters, the growing Democratic advantage with voters who hold a bachelor's degree and the consistent Democratic lean among Hispanics.



Even in a year where Democrats picked up more than 35 seats in the House, Republicans still won white voters by a solid 10 percentage points.

But Democrats won college-educated voters by an even more substantial 20 points (continuing a trend that's been underway for some years). And Hispanic/Latino voters went to Democrats by a massive 40 points, an even bigger edge than the party usually has with that group of voters.

Those are big numbers, but they can seem abstract until you combine them with geography. Consider the results this past election out of Ohio, a state President Donald Trump won by 8 points in 2016.



Ohio had two Republican-held competitive House seats in 2018 - one "tossup" and one "lean Republican" according to the Cook Political Report - and both wound up going for the Republican candidate fairly comfortably. And in the state's gubernatorial race, an open seat to replace Republican John Kasich, the GOP's Mike DeWine won in a race that, again, was forecasted as a tossup.

Considering the Democratic pickups this year, those results stand out. But they make more sense when you look at the state's demographic picture.


-more-

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/ohio-colorado-may-no-longer-be-swing-states/ar-BBPPGgQ?li=BBnb7Kz

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Response to Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin (Original post)

Sun Nov 18, 2018, 05:10 PM

1. i'm glad we picked up those other battleground states

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Response to Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin (Original post)

Sun Nov 18, 2018, 05:28 PM

2. Seems ohio has gone to the dark side

Hopefully they wont pull that right to work sht

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Response to Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin (Original post)

Sun Nov 18, 2018, 05:29 PM

3. I think Biden would beat Trump in Ohio.

 

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Response to Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin (Original post)

Sun Nov 18, 2018, 05:43 PM

4. Colorado elected our first Secy of State since the early '60s

This has to impact the security of voter registration. I doubt there will be cooperation with Trump's efforts to thwart voting eligibility here. So it has to factor in as a good state for Dems to prevail and grow in numbers if we continue to work at it.

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Response to Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin (Original post)

Sun Nov 18, 2018, 05:48 PM

5. I can't speak to Colorado,

but Ohio is horribly gerrymandered. Redistricting, as happened in Pennsylvania, would likely return the state to swing status.

As to statewide and national elections, Ohio has been notoriously fickle for a long time. Note that we returned Sherrod Brown to the Senate and chose Barack Obama in both 2008 and 2012. If Donald Trump is running in 2020, he will lose Ohio.

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Response to OilemFirchen (Reply #5)

Sun Nov 18, 2018, 07:24 PM

7. I agree.

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Response to OilemFirchen (Reply #5)

Sun Nov 18, 2018, 07:27 PM

8. We in Ohio voted to end the gerrymander so even with that crypt

keeper governor, the gerrymander will end.

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Response to OilemFirchen (Reply #5)

Sun Nov 18, 2018, 07:33 PM

9. Ohio is going the way of Missouri....time for Dems to invest resources elsewhere

 

Even Obama BARELY won Ohio in 2012. Each cycle Ohio is getting progressively more Red. This is a pattern. The same thing happened with Missouri. Missouri used to be a bellweather state, but each cycle it was getting more and more red so now it's a full on red state. Same thing is happening to Ohio. The demographics show that Ohio is getting older and whiter. It's not getting the influx of new population like other states such as Georgia and Arizona.

I think it's very possible Trump will win Ohio in 2020 easily unless it's against Sherrod Brown. Otherwise, we need to quit wasting our time there and go to AZ and GA instead.

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Response to BluegrassDem (Reply #9)

Sun Nov 18, 2018, 09:03 PM

12. 2010 census vs. 2000 census information shows Ohio has gotten a bit more diverse.

Slightly older, yes, but less white.

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Response to Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin (Original post)

Sun Nov 18, 2018, 07:24 PM

6. Ohio voted for Bush twice and then Obama twice...still a swing state.

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Response to Demsrule86 (Reply #6)

Sun Nov 18, 2018, 07:37 PM

10. Hillary poured tons of MONEY and TIME in Ohio and still lost by 8 points

 

It's not a swing state anymore. Hillary lost in Texas by less than she did in Ohio after all that money and campaigning there. Any Dem not named Sherrod Brown that pours money in Ohio at the expense of Arizona and Georgia should deserve to lose.

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Response to BluegrassDem (Reply #10)

Sun Nov 18, 2018, 09:05 PM

13. 2016 was pretty screwy in many ways, and there's a lot of irrational hatred for Clinton.

I'm not ready to write off Ohio. But, as I wrote below, I don't think Democrats need to obsess over Ohio and Florida as we have in recent years. We really just need to get MI, PA and WI back in our column. If we do that, we win the White House.

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Response to Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin (Original post)

Sun Nov 18, 2018, 07:55 PM

11. I think Ohio remains 1 of the 10 or so swing states. Obama beat Romney by 3 points in Ohio.

But the fact that DeWine overcame the blue wave and won by 4+ points is disturbing. Sherrod Brown might not be a bad choice for VP, but I also don't think we should obsess over Ohio or Florida. We can win the White House without either state.

Colorado and Virginia have turned blue. We might be able to turn Arizona blue. North Carolina is in play. Even Georgia and Texas could eventually turn blue.

We can certainly take back MI, PA and WI. And that, really, will be the key to winning in 2020. With those 3 states, Clinton wins.

Iowa, like Missouri, is probably lost.

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