Trying to get a good grasp of the Manafort news implications

[AndJusticeForSome]

Last edited Tue Nov 27, 2018, 01:28 AM - Edit history (1)

We should know more in 10 days, but for now:

1) Manafort was caught lying. How?
a) Mueller knew from the beginning about the lies
b) Mueller got new info since Manafort's plea deal

If a) is true, it suggests that Manafort may have been "set-up", perhaps so that he would feed disinfo back to Trump (?).

How would that work? Manafort would have to be convinced that his lies we're believed by Mueller, and those lies then communicated to Trump as, so to speak, having been "vetted" as reliable enough for Trump to repeat to Mueller.

The timing supports this interpretation (being busted so soon after Trump turned in his homework).

If b) is true, I suppose the same conclusion above could apply; however, it removes much of the "set-up" scenario

Or, there is no additional story, just that Manafort got caught. That must also be a possibility.

2) Why would Manafort do that?
a) it's his nature
b) he believed he'd be pardoned
c) he thought he was smarter than Mueller

My head is spinning, trying to sort this out. Can anyone add more logical points, or correct any above? TIA

ETA: The "10 days" comment was an error, from a misreading of the post in LBN.

https://www.democraticunderground.com/10142210887

The last line of that post was a headline from 10 days ago... Doh!

[Sanity Claws]

1. Would Gates know almost as much as Manafort?

But if so, Manafort must have known that and realized that he would be caught in lies.
I can't figure this out either.

[AndJusticeForSome]

5. Glad I'm not alone

I didn't even consider Gates in my equation, lol... Thanks

[dawg day]

26. Manafort got a signal that Trump might pardon him

I hope Virginia and NY have secretly indicted him for state tax evasion. Trump can't pardon him for that.

[wasupaloopa]

2. turn on MSNBC The Last Word they are discussing this now

[AndJusticeForSome]

3. No TV. Will have to wait for a YouTube video

Thanks for the heads-up

[Garrett78]

8. This is how I watch:

http://www.livenewschat.eu/politics/

[elfin]

4. He most likely has a "pardon in hand"

As just said by Howard Littman on O'Donnell

[Hoyt]

6. In same situation, missing how Manafort will bring trump down (which is pretty much my focus).

He is proof that trump surrounds himself with sleazy crooks, but I'm not sure he has ever been charged with anything directly leading to trump being elected. I'm sure Mueller thinks he might know something, but Mueller sure hasn't charged Manafort with that, at least yet.

Like most of this mess, I hope I'm wrong and Manafort has tapes, or other evidence, of trump telling Putin he will wreck America for help in getting elected and not militarily oppose anything Putin wants while trump is in office.

If Mueller has a bead on that, I think Mueller would have moved much faster to stop trump.

[AndJusticeForSome]

7. I doubt there's any overt quid-pro-quo (wrt Trump collusion)

These things would be done with a wink and a nod. I'm certainly not expecting any taped confession of collusion.

[Hoyt]

9. I agree, but that's what it will take to bring trump down. That's just the sad facts. And, I don't

think Mueller can prove the wink and a nod, or even that Ruskies or other countries have trump by the financial scrotum.

The most likely way to get trump is find something abhorrent to one-third to one-half of the ignorant white wingers who still support trump. Maybe, 25% if they scream loud enough to their GOPer Senator.

And, I'm not sure Mueller is that bent on taking trump down. I really don't care that Mueller was a hero soldier in Asian, during that godforsaken war. That was a long time ago, and doesn't give me comfort.

I think we are for the same thing in the end, but I learned by lesson during Fitzmas. I'm hoping There have been several times I thought they had trump cold, and I did a little dance.

[AndJusticeForSome]

14. I, sadly, remember Fitzmas all too well

I have to consciously push it from my mind when thinking about Trump/Mueller.

[Hoyt]

15. With Fitzmas, I'd wake up a night to see if they shackled bush/cheney. But,

But, I do look first think every morning to see if Mueller threw trump up against the wall, or at least called a press conference to announce evidence of possible charges, including treason.

[rampartc]

28. nothing can disuade the trump "true believers"

they want tp do do things as abhorrent as trump does, and enjoy their vicarious crooked business deals and sex with porno stars so much that they will remember trump's experiences as their pwn.

[GumboYaYa]

10. A rumor I am hearing is that Mueller fed Manafort information and tracked him as he fed it to

Trump. Then Trump wrote his responses to Mueller to correspond with the information Manafort was giving Mueller. McGahn dropped a dime on Manafort and Trump. Mueller delayed filing until after he had responses from Trump.

[AndJusticeForSome]

13. Ahhh, so that long meeting with McGahn comes into focus

The joint defense agreement thing between Trump and Manafort is surely part of the picture!

[Volaris]

17. Yep and THAT, Ladies and Gentleman, is

OBSTRUCTION OF JUSTICE, pure and simple.

Bets on how long it will take Short-fingers to figure out how fucked he is now? I'mma go with ....by Friday.

[Hoyt]

18. I don't think that charge will hurt trump.

[Volaris]

19. No, but the conspiracy indictment sure as hell will,

Because if there's a money laundering and (please please please) A RICO indictment in there anywhere, it means the GOP as a party can't run from it.

[Hoyt]

20. Unless it impacts security or proves trump colluded in outright election cheating,

I don’t think we get him. Again, hope I’m wrong, but RICO ain’t going to do it.

[Volaris]

23. Those things aren't going to come from Mueller I think.

Mueller is going to show that Trump took the dirty money.
The quid pro quo for that money is going to come from the House investigations, I suspect.
By the time this is done , Trump will either be unelected or impeached , and either way he can THEN be prosecuted.

'Donald Trump will die in prison.'--Malcome Nance.

A Rico charge will implicate every single republican who took the dirty money,...doesn't matter if they knew it was dirty or not.

[Hoyt]

24. If it doesn't remove him from office early, what's the use? I guess investigation

impedes him somewhat, that’s good.

Prosecutors will never find a jury that won’t hang from a few ignorant white wingers supporting their boy.

[GumboYaYa]

30. judging from the tweets this morning, someone must have told him last night.

[Grasswire2]

27. yes

Smarter than the average bear, Mueller.

[EllieBC]

11. I think Manafort was banking on Trump getting Mueller shut down.

The arrogance is incredible.

[AndJusticeForSome]

12. Hmm, I hadn't even considered that

But now that you mention it... Good point

[Jarqui]

16. I have a partial theory

Mueller has been trying to get Trump on the record for many months - I think they had a verbal Q & A scheduled for January 2018 that Trump canceled.

The Manafort case proceeds. Mueller presents very good cases for the 18 charges in Virginia - lots of documentation to back them up. Mueller gets 8 convictions with a good shot at 10 more after the mistrial in Virginia based upon one juror who voted against 10 convictions. Before the DC case, Manafort enters a guilty plea after he cuts a deal to reveal what he knows to Mueller.
https://www.cnn.com/2018/09/14/politics/paul-manafort-guilty-plea/index.html

Manafort pleaded guilty in federal court in Washington, DC, on Friday to one count of conspiracy against the US and one count of conspiracy to obstruct justice due to attempts to tamper with witnesses.

So while Manafort is supposedly cooperating, Trump loses the midterms and figures it is a good time to work on written answers to some of Muellers questions - which he does.

As it gets close to Mueller getting those answers, on Nov 16th, Mueller asks for a delay of 10 days to provide more details to the judge for sentencing
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-11-16/mueller-promises-judge-more-details-on-manafort-case-in-10-days
which the judge grants

On Nov 20th: Trump sends finished written answers to Mueller
https://www.cnn.com/2018/11/20/politics/trump-mueller-questions-done/index.html

Today, ten days after his request for ten days, Mueller reports Manafort lying and the deal is off
https://www.cnn.com/2018/11/26/politics/paul-manafort-breach-agreement-mueller/index.html

Manafort was convicted of obstruction of justice via witness tampering in his DC case.

Papadopoulos, Corsi and Manafort have all suddently got nervy with Mueller. Could they have been promised pardons ...?

If there was a back channel between Manafort & Trump and Trump is led to believe by Manafort that Mueller is buying Manafort's lies ... maybe that the two parties cooked together ... as Trump prepares his written answers for Mueller ... that could present quite a problem for Trump because he'd be telling Mueller Manafort's lies that Mueller already knows are lies.

What smells on the surface as not so good for Mueller by outward appearances, it could be really bad news for Trump (and great news for the rest of us and justice) if it is anything like the above. If Mueller has Trump lying to the Special Prosecutor ....

[AndJusticeForSome]

21. No need for a back channel

Manafort had been in a long-standing joint defense agreement with Trump and other witnesses in the special counsel investigation. Plea deals such as the one he struck Friday typically sever such agreements. Lawyers on both sides are still free to communicate, with some restrictions, but their discussions are no longer shielded from scrutiny by prosecutors.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/legal-team-still-confident-that-manafort-will-not-implicate-trump-giuliani-says/2018/09/17/1d2caf74-ba98-11e8-a8aa-860695e7f3fc_story.html?utm_term=.26688190ef4d

[Jarqui]

22. "but their discussions are no longer shielded from scrutiny by prosecutors."

That's why there would have to be a back channel

It might be as simple as "off the record ..." and they sort it out agreeing that they will not tell the prosecutor

[AndJusticeForSome]

25. And perhaps that's exactly how Mueller knows

"Shielded" could mean "available upon request" or otherwise not-in-real-time.

I actually agree with the scenario you propose.

[Iggo]

29. Manafort lied. Mueller knew. Mueller let Manafort and Trump compare notes. Trump lied under oath.

Something like that.