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Awsi Dooger

(14,565 posts)
Thu Nov 29, 2018, 02:14 PM Nov 2018

Florida analysis: Too little, too late, after abandoning the Obama playbook

I have to agree with this article from The Hill. It focuses on the major problems I have seen in Miami, with Republicans emphasizing outreach all year long while Democratic operations try to scramble in the final months:

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/418579-dems-grapple-with-uncertain-future-in-florida-after-losses

"Multiple strategists and party operatives in the state suggested that Democrats had failed to organize early and effectively enough. They also said the party needs to mount a more sustained voter outreach and registration effort, particularly months or years ahead of elections."

***

I am not surprised that Donna Shalala's campaign in FL-27 used a former Obama adviser. As I've emphasized here many times, Shalala is the only Florida Democrat whose campaign kept in touch frequently -- by phone, email and mailers -- similar to what I experienced while living in Clark County, Nevada.

I never heard from Bill Nelson or Andrew Gillum.

"Fernand Amandi, a Miami-based Democratic pollster, said Democrats had all but abandoned the Florida playbook given to them by former President Obama, who won the state in both his 2008 and 2012 White House bids.

That playbook hinged on more robust outreach to Latino voters and an effort to narrow vote margins in more rural parts of the state, Amandi said, adding that Democrats effectively “abandoned that approach in 2010 and 2014, and now again in 2018.”

“From the Democratic perspective in Florida, it’s no longer a question of a reassessment. They need to completely blow up the model and start anew,” said Amandi, who served as an adviser to Rep.-elect Donna Shalala, one of only two Democrats who flipped a GOP-held House seat in Florida."





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JCMach1

(27,553 posts)
1. My analysis is simpler than this... Scott outspent Nelson AT LEAST 3-1... and that's just reported
Thu Nov 29, 2018, 02:21 PM
Nov 2018

money...

Add the dark money and it's easy to see what happened. Scott ran the same playbook he has in all elections... suppress vote with unrelenting negative ads and media to suppress/depress the vote and motivate the deplorable base.

Zipgun

(182 posts)
5. Makes you wonder where the national support was. I remember seeing a lot about how Dems were out
Thu Nov 29, 2018, 03:02 PM
Nov 2018

raising money over the GOP on a national level. We NEEDED that senate seat at the very least.

Garrett78

(10,721 posts)
2. Not to totally discount your main point, but Florida is always redder in mid-terms.
Thu Nov 29, 2018, 02:31 PM
Nov 2018

And Obama was a pretty unique candidate, following 8 years of misery. Comparing midterms to 2008 and 2012 is suspect.

We don't need Florida in order to win the White House, but it's a must-win for the Republican candidate. So, greater outreach between and leading up to election cycles is certainly a good idea.

Zipgun

(182 posts)
3. It really is a case of one side playing checker and the other chess.
Thu Nov 29, 2018, 02:59 PM
Nov 2018

And here in Florida the Democratic Party isn't the one playing chess. As far as commercials were concerned, I saw a few things from Gillum, nothing from Nelson. And Rick Scott's bullshit all the time. Just look at the Florida party website, you have to look for our positions. They haven't changed anything from the election. It's over and we lost so I guess they are just licking their wounds. How about starting the fight for the next election NOW? Doesn't have to be big and expensive. Looks like shop has closed up. Sure there are no candidates yet, but there sure is stuff the GOP is doing wrong here. How about something more that a paragraph on the environment that you have to look for? Jezus it's this tepid, play defense bullshit that is killing us.

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