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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsWhy I知 Not Buying the Romney Rally
By NATE SILVER
At the political futures market Intrade, shares in Mitt Romney have been a hot commodity this week. As of early Thursday evening, the bettors there gave Mr. Romney a 43.5 percent chance of winning Novembers election. Thats up from about 39 percent late last week, before Mr. Romneys announcement that Representative Paul D. Ryan of Wisconsin would be his running mate.
Our forecast model has usually been more bearish on Mr. Romneys chances than Intrade but it also shows him gaining ground over the past several days. It now gives him a 31.3 percent chance of winning the Electoral College, up from 26.7 percent late last week.
So whats my gripe with Intrade?
The issue is simply this: in past elections, candidates have typically gotten a bounce in the polls after naming their running mates. When I use the term bounce, what I mean is that they get a temporary boost to their numbers which then fades. But while the bounce is under way, the polls will overrate their standing somewhat.
The forecast model is not making any sort of adjustment for the effect that naming a running mate could have on the polls. Neither, apparently, are the bettors at Intrade. But that may be a mistake.
more
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/08/16/aug-16-why-im-not-buying-the-romney-rally/
ananda
(28,854 posts)It's a rightwing media and polling fiction.
1-Old-Man
(2,667 posts)Read the tea leaves, its at least as good a predictor as intrade.
corkhead
(6,119 posts)WI_DEM
(33,497 posts)then dems should get one after ours.