Beto O'Rourke seen as a top contender in 2020: poll

[applegrove]

BY LISA HAGEN at the Hill

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/419455-beto-orourke-seen-as-top-contender-in-2020-race-for-white-house-poll

"SNIP....

Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-Texas) is considered one of the top Democratic contenders for the White House in 2020 even among more well-known potential hopefuls, according to a Harvard CAPS/Harris poll released exclusively to The Hill.

Former Vice President Joe Biden is the most popular Democrat in the potential 2020 primary, with 28 percent of Democratic and independent voters saying they’d most likely vote for him, according to the poll released on Monday.

Biden remains the front-runner even when 2016 nominee Hillary Clinton is included in the poll. Sen. Bernie Sanders(I-Vt.), who also ran in 2016, comes in second place at 21 percent.

O’Rourke, who earned a groundswell of national attention in 2018, was ranked third with 7 percent, garnering more support than other frequently touted potential challengers.

.....SNIP"

[samnsara]

1. if obama supports him then i will too

[applegrove]

2. Yes. I trust the Obamas over anyone else in politics in the US. It could

be like the Oprah moment was for Obama.

[Polybius]

3. Who was the last House member to go directly to being elected President?

It’s gotta be at least 100 years.

[applegrove]

4. Justin Trudeau is the model. Justin had the vision and values. He recruited

wonderful experts around him. He was a teacher and then a member of parliament before he was elected leader of the Liberals. Reagan is the model too (though he had the values of movement conservatives instead of democratic decent values). They groomed Reagan way back and gave him governorship of California. Sometimes you want someone who totally embodies the electoral narrative inside themselves and can therefore be scrappy in an election because it is all personal to them. And by scrappy I mean "INFORMAL•NORTH AMERICAN meaning: determined, argumentative, or pugnacious. So it all comes out authentic because it is values. When posed a question O'Rourke digs inside himself for answers rather than going over what they have been prepared to answer in an intellectual way.

[Bradshaw3]

8. Excellent points n/t

[manor321]

5. I like this, even though polls are silly at this point

But we need someone newer and younger and vigorous.

And I bet he will give us his tax returns.

[ananda]

6. Works for me!

Go Beto !!!!!!

[Trumpocalypse]

7. Polls in December 2006

had Hillary Clinton and Rudy Giuliani leading for the Democratic and Republican nominations. How did that work out?

[Polybius]

9. Hillary would have moped the floor with that POS Rudy

I can't stand the very mention of him.

[Trumpocalypse]

10. The point is

polls this early aren't accurate as neither went on to be the nominees in 08.

[Awsi Dooger]

12. You are missing the point

Favoritism doesn't have to mean 99% certainty. Favoritism can mean less than 1%. Let's say we are in a lottery and one guy buys a silly number of tickets. Yes, he is technically the favorite among everyone but that favoritism might mean .00002% likely.

It was the same issue in 2016 when Hillary dropped go 65-72% likely in the final days against Trump. Instead of recognizing how fragile that was there were too many people who looked at anything above 50% as meaning it was almost certain to happen. I kept emphasizing it was the equivalent of a 4 point favorite in an NFL game.

These are plurality favorites. Last I checked on Predict It, Kamala Harris was the favorite but trading at 17 cents. That means 17 to win 83.

Let's say Harris does not win the nomination. Are we supposed to revisit this a decade from now and scoff at Kamala Harris being the favorite?

Nobody is claiming she is more likely than not to be nominated.

[Trumpocalypse]

13. My point is simple

Polls at this point in the cycle are meaningless.

[NewJeffCT]

11. Nobody wanted to challenge George HW Bush in 1990/91

his popularity was soaring due to the first Iraq War, and leading Democratic contender Mario Cuomo announced he would not run...

the remaining Democrats were called The 7 Dwarfs because they were dwarfs compared to Bush and his staggeringly high popularity at the time.

That didn't turn out so well for Bush now, did it?