66 (Revised Landslide addition)
Last edited Wed Jan 4, 2012, 07:44 AM - Edit history (1)
30,015 Romney 2012
29,949 Romney 2008
After spending millions of dollars and campaigning for 5 years Romney is going to get 66 more votes than he had 4 years ago. That is going to work out to about $ 100,000 per additional voter.
He made the amateur mistake by moving to NH so even if he has a big win there it will be discounted as a 'favorite son' result.
He has now antagonized the best political bomb thrower in the business, Gingrich is going to be completely focused and unleashed.
With 27 proportional primaries and no reason for the top 4-5 to drop out ( too bad Pawlenty) no one is going to get the 51% of the delegates before the convention (in reality it is impossible in a competitive race if there are three candidates).
The field will narrow down consolidating the anti-Romney vote.
They will all focus on him now.
Romney is the front runner who has no where to go but down. He is unable to pick up supporters from other candidates when they drop out. He doesn't really have close associations with the Republican inner circle.
People don't like him and he is a terrible campaigner, the more they see him the less they like him. His reciting the words of America the Beautiful is an embarassing attempt to be folksy. He can't name anybody that makes him laugh since the 3 Stooges.
Said it before, not going to be Romney, it will go to the convention and there will be a draft for a Republican Governor, and the Republicans will start over again with people that actually win elections.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/100252986
= new reply since forum marked as read
Perry and Bachmann are going to be out real soon. Bachmann's support will mostly go to Ricky, but it's small. Romney will get a decent chunk of the Perry support. Probably not a majority, but some.
Once Huntsman drops out, Romney will get his 1 percent as well 
In a three man race between Romney, Gingrich, and Santorum, the latter two will split the anti-Romney vote and start fighting each other. Romney will slowly start to pull away and chip away at each of them until both are left with nothing but their core supporters. For Ricky, that's the most hardcore evangelicals. For Gingrich, that's nobody.
Paul's kind of a special case because his base is not really traditional Republicans. His support will also dwindle down to his core, which is where it was last time. The fair-weather Paulites that are actually Republicans will probably break more for Romney than anybody else.
There's no way that after all of this, some Deus Ex Machina event happens at the convention. Romney will be the nominee and he'll get the nomination the old fashioned way.
