California primary threatens to change 2020 game for Dems

[Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin]

The changing Democratic primary calendar is prompting Democrats to ask whether early caucus and primary states will have the same cache in 2020.

Traditionally, candidates have hunkered down in Des Moines and Manchester, hoping that a victory in the Iowa caucuses or New Hampshire primary would jumpstart their campaigns.

But in 2020, voters in California and Texas along with seven other states will head to the polls on March 3 - exactly one month after the Iowa caucuses and just a few days after the South Carolina primary.

The shift could lead some candidates, particularly those focused on winning over African-American or Hispanic voters, to put their focus on California instead of the smaller, whiter and more conservative states.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/california-primary-threatens-to-change-2020-game-for-dems/ar-BBQw8NL?li=BBnbcA1

[Renew Deal]

1. This hurts candidates with smaller profiles

Basically makes it harder for the Bill Clinton's of the world.

[OnDoutside]

2. More than threatens, it will catapult Harris.

[TeamPooka]

7. She will already have won Iowa, South Carolina, and Nevada by then. :)

[OnDoutside]

9. This primary season will expose or confirm people's personality. I like her, but I want to see

how she does in the heat of battle, and has to mix it. Same with Amy Klobuchar.

The good thing for Kamala is that even if she is doing so-so at that point, she will get a huge boost from California.

[Garrett78]

10. I'm not so sure about Iowa. And Nevada is iffy, especially if they still have a caucus.

[hedda_foil]

3. Damn it, msn! It's cachet, not cache!

[Delmette2.0]

4. I think we should have regional primaries.

We could divide the states into 4 or 5 regions and every other week one region holds primaries. No more hopping around the country for months. We could rotate which region votes first.

[Garrett78]

8. I've proposed that idea before, but I see a downside.

One problem is that it disadvantages those with less money. The solution to that, though, would be public financing and spending limits.

A bigger problem, arguably, is that - if a dozen states kick things off - the vote will be split and a fringe candidate will prosper. Starting off with 4 individual contests mitigates that, as it results in candidates dropping out before Super Tuesday.

Now, should IA, NH, NV and SC be the 4 that kick things off? I don't think so. I think we should select states that are more reflective of our electorate. NV and SC aren't bad choices, but IA and NH are lacking in diversity. I also think caucuses should be banned, and a handful of states are moving away from caucuses.

[Delmette2.0]

11. I agree with doing away with caucuses.

I do think that the first primaries should always be different states. My state is usually last and it feels like our votes don't count in choosing our candidate. I'm sure other late primary states feel the same.

[Garrett78]

12. Some sort of rotation would be good, but traditions are stubborn.

And the point has been made that if the 2 parties don't follow more or less the same schedule, each party will alienate the states that do/don't get an early say. I'm not as concerned about that, but I don't want to dismiss that concern. We could simply have both parties follow the same rotation.

IA and NH always kicking things off is a tradition that needs to die, IMO.

[Garrett78]

5. The schedule doesn't look all that different than it did in 2016.

California moving up is significant, but the Texas primary took place on the first Super Tuesday in 2016, as well.

More states doing away with caucuses will have more impact than anything else.

Here's what the first 6 weeks looked like in 2016:

2/1: IA
2/9: NH
2/20: NV
2/27: SC
3/1: AL, AR, CO, GA, MA, MN, OK, TN, TX, VA, VT
3/5: KS, LA, NE
3/6: ME
3/8: MI, MS
3/15: FL, IL, MO, NC, OH

Here's what the first 6 weeks look like for 2020:

2/3: IA
2/11: NH
2/22: NV
2/29: SC
3/3: AL, CA, MA, NC, OK, TN, TX, VA, VT
3/7: LA
3/10: ID, MI, MS, MO, OH
3/17: AZ, FL, IL

[TeamPooka]

6. It would be nice for a large state with a diverse population to have a say early on in the process

[Garrett78]

13. It would be nice if the 4 states that kick things off were all reflective of our electorate and...

...all primaries, as opposed to caucuses.

[Codeine]

14. A state where people actually live?!

Good heavens!!